bingcrosbyb Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 NAM going a little crazy @ H5 @45 HR. Watch out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 out buying umbrellas Classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 @54 our gulf low is exploding over Houston...that energy in TX is really digging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 A 1012 mb surface low pops off the Southern Texas Coastline @ 48...that's interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 BTW it looks like @54 our high is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Don't see how the temps can hold on - the HP is motoring eastward at 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Bit off topic. Looking out past this storm at the GFS ensembles at 150h its members run the gamit from a low of lake superior with 0 850's into Minnisota, to a snow storm over Louisiana. Has this model been infected by the Suxnet worm of something. Jeez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 BTW it looks like @54 our high is gone. yep...don't really like the look of the low just above the Lakes in Southern Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Must of been a blip @57 1028 high over NH...moisture exploding across LA...not sure but this thing might start making a more inland track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 1008 mb low just west of New Orleans at 60...me not liking that at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Everyone: FORGET about the wedge/high, it is a NON FACTOR. This is all about dynamic cooling/track of the upper low. Those that get snow will be on the north side of that track, those that get screwed are not. Pretty simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Must of been a blip @57 1028 high over NH...moisture exploding across LA...not sure but this thing might start making a more inland track I think that is the second HP that has been there the whole time, but no one ever took it into account. I know Brad Panovich said something about it re-enforcing the first one.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 .Lastly, I do not think that KCLT will fair much, if any better than KRDU. Why? The CAD wedge is not very well established by the time precip arrives, and with the amount of WAA associated with this low, the wedge should be eroded fairly quickly out to KCLT. Let's pretend the wedge holds, well 950 temps are forecasted to be at 6.0C+ on both the NAM and GFS by the time precip really starts coming in...which would still yield rain! The argument that both models are way too warm at this level doesn't hold much water in my view, as there isn't much colder temps to the north or west. Honestly, there is no way both of these models are going to blow temps across the entire eastern seaboard by that much. Now, by the end of the event I suppose a near isothermal layer could setup somewhere under the deformation band, and this area might have the potential for some very wet snow, with ratios of 5:1 at best, but I just don't see much support for it in the model soundings I have seen. I don't have access to the euro, so that is the one model that could be colder. Even so, I stand by everything I have said. Looks like the 00z NAM is about to back you up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 @66 it's going inland...looks like torrential ran for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 A lot of warm air is going to come into the picture here soon enough. Temps looks to be the big problem, not precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 TN will probably do well...everyone west of the apps not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 A lot of warm air is going to come into the picture here soon enough. Temps looks to be the big problem, not precip. This run is getting despressing...in a hurry!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 A lot of warm air is going to come into the picture here soon enough. Temps looks to be the big problem, not precip. Yep 850 line is up in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 H5 @ 69 hours is wild. Huge warm surge on the front end into the Carolinas. Much more than before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Mighty big jump here.. Yep 850 line is up in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 That second low off of FL could make things interesting in later frames...this one might be a good soaking drought buster if the NAM verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Sounds like the NAM portrays a brine flusher! Need to get that junk off the roads anyway so we can get a good freeze to the roads later. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Repeat- this is all bout dynamic cooling. Most folks will not get all snow based on the trends, but if the upper low can deepen enough then some may still get heavy wet snow once the upper vort max/low comes overhead. A classic dynamic cooling storm perhaps like March 24 1983- heavy rain to heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'm still interested in what that low crossing Tampa is going to do. Heavy soaking rain according to the NAM...can't complain too much since we've needed that for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Repeat- this is all bout dynamic cooling. Most folks will not get all snow based on the trends, but if the upper low can deepen enough then some may still get heavy wet snow once the upper vort max/low comes overhead. A classic dynamic cooling storm perhaps like March 24 1983- heavy rain to heavy snow. There's actually some pretty large dewpoint depressions in those warmer layers around 800-900MB...large enough the wetbulbs are down around 0C at hour 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 @79 flooding in CLT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 00z NAM is an epic january rain storm. Might have to start talking about flash flood watches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'm still interested in what that low crossing Tampa is going to do. Heavy soaking rain according to the NAM...can't complain too much since we've needed that for awhile. Although not viewed as such a heavy soaking rain would be a very good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Using this logic we should be able to get snow anytime of year. I'm sorry, but without some cold air in place at all levels, I don't care how cold it is at 500mb, you are not going to get snow - deformation band or not. If it's warm enough aloft, it could actually warm up more with the heavy precip rates! This is true as the precip could drag down some of that warmer air aloft. As for your earlier post I think it is pretty much spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 There's actually some pretty large dewpoint depressions in those warmer layers around 800-900MB...large enough the wetbulbs are down around 0C at hour 60. Well there will certainly be heavy enough precip according to the NAM at 78 but those temps are looking to warm just verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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