CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 FWIW, the 18z DGEX is a non event more or less. 6z had the big one. (Don't take it too seriously though.) Non-event with precip or temps?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman22 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Look at the 18z GEFS, the H5 is right over central alabama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I don't think any of the models are trustworthy even the big Euro. One minute it has a bomb the next minute nothing. Two days ago it has 2 inches or more of precip and now a light event. Yes I am firm believer that it all can change but the euro is about inconsistent as the GFS. It always prevails as the best but it is as bad as the others when leading up to a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Non-event with precip or temps?? no big storm at all. little precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow for dylan Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 my area(atlanta but i live in dawsonville) the mets are saying an inch at best... This could be a major system. he also said dont go to the grocery store. he has to see potetial in this system this could kill people if it becomes what it could be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yes the ECMWF is the Euro. I have also noted the optimism. Our guys are on the realistic side of things right now.. Unless it was Van or Austin, you can be certain they are just regurgitating the NWS forecast. NWS forecast says possible mix Tuesday afternoon quickly turning to snow but it all depends on the track. There's no need to watch the weekend "mets" - you can get the same thing with a weather radio or of the nws website. Please don't feel any more or less optimistic based on wht they say. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 my area(atlanta but i live in dawsonville) the mets are saying an inch at best... This could be a major system. he also said dont go to the grocery store. he has to see potetial in this system this could kill people if it becomes what it could be... well with all the warm air it will be tough to get a monster storm i think in and around atl mostly rain imo down that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Just let me be under the deformation band of a coastal storm making the perfect track in January and I will take my chances with the BL issues. Even if it is all rain, I want to be in the sweet spot. Couldn't agree more. Can't have snow without precip, and no better place to maximize your chances than under the deformation band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow for dylan Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 well with all the warm air it will be tough to get a monster storm i think in and around atl mostly rain imo down that way. What about north of atlanta like around gainesville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Andy Wood just posted a video update for the Upstate and WNC...sounds like a "close but no cigar" for their first call. http://www.foxcarolina.com/weatherblog/index.html Andy is calling for 6-12 for wnc. Can't see the video as I am on my phone but the way your post is worded it sounds like he is calling for rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 Andy is calling for 6-12 for wnc. Can't see the video as I am on my phone but the way your post is worded it sounds like he is calling for rain. Since you cannot get access to it...he pretty much said that the track is one that would support snow but like many on here, he's concerned about the lack of a good cold air source. He basically said that the Upstate will be a cold rain or mix at most. He even hinted as much for the foothills in North Carolina (Polk, Rutherford, McDowell). His confidence for snow is a bit higher in the mountains. Even though not in the viewing area, he made reference to East Tennessee as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Andy is calling for 6-12 for wnc. Can't see the video as I am on my phone but the way your post is worded it sounds like he is calling for rain. Basically a mostly rain event outside of the mtns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 00z NAM much stronger than 12z with first piece of energy through 18HR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Someone correct me if I am completely crazy, but did we not have the same issue at about this time with the Christmas storm? People started jumping off tall buildings and putting away sharp objects because the storm seemed to be lost and then all of a sudden it came back, coming down the home stretch. Let's not start throwing the towel in until the fat lady sings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Since you cannot get access to it...he pretty much said that the track is one that would support snow but like many on here, he's concerned about the lack of a good cold air source. He basically said that the Upstate will be a cold rain or mix at most. He even hinted as much for the foothills in North Carolina (Polk, Rutherford, McDowell). His confidence for snow is a bit higher in the mountains. Even though not in the viewing area, he made reference to East Tennessee as well. I talked to him after I saw your post and asked him and he said 6 to 12 here. He did say that the upstate would see more rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 @21 on the NAM looks like our energy in Canada is further west thought that might not equate to much down stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 To add, he did say all snow Asheville and west. This setup (as he put it) is going to be really close in the 221 corridor Dan. I recall last year maybe February (?) southern side of the county cold cold rain, Western and North parts of the county, a decent wet snow... Really hope for good rates and a little help with the 850's in the upcoming modeling.. Since you cannot get access to it...he pretty much said that the track is one that would support snow but like many on here, he's concerned about the lack of a good cold air source. He basically said that the Upstate will be a cold rain or mix at most. He even hinted as much for the foothills in North Carolina (Polk, Rutherford, McDowell). His confidence for snow is a bit higher in the mountains. Even though not in the viewing area, he made reference to East Tennessee as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Seems to me, outside off the mountains, what needs to happen is we simply need this to bomb, period. Unlike the last couple of systems, temps, as has been thoroughly discussed this afternoon will prevent large areas from cashing in this time. Now a stronger 5h low likely puts the best snows west of where many would like, but even areas well east of the heavy axis would at least have some back end action from a cranked system. Better that than 38 and a driving rain no? Still seems to me that the insitu cad is likely to be colder than modeled. It's well known that models often underestimate low level artic air such as is with the hp that will be sliding east. That air mass is brutally cold. Set a record recently at International Falls of 47 below. So this should help with surface temps, but we still need a bomb to bring to crash heights to finish the job. Say what you will about the JMA, but it does do a credible job in this range, particularly @5h. This model has had a powerful upper low traversing the deep south for days now. The GFS has been abysmal with this new +pna pattern. So why give it much weight now? The Euro has been good as usual, but we are getting into that time frame where for whatever reason the Euro losses it's dominance. Notice the -4c 850's SOUTH of the 850lp shown in the 96hr panel. Now that is the kind of dynamic cooling that would bring the Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 To add, he did say all snow Asheville and west. This setup (as he put it) is going to be really close in the 221 corridor Dan. I recall last year maybe February (?) southern side of the county cold cold rain, Western and North parts of the county, a decent wet snow... Really hope for good rates and a little help with the 850's in the upcoming modeling.. I agree...its going to be close. I know in recent weeks a lot of us has thrown around the ol' verbage that we're in an 80's type of snowstorm pattern. Of all the snows we have had in the past year-plus, this upcoming storm could actually be the most "retro" like storm of all in terms of the eventual evolution. I think somebody not far from my house (if not me) is going to get hammered big time from this system. I think its very possible that the transition line is going to be as narrow as 20 miles. For example, I could go from wet roads at the Super Wal-Mart in Spindale to snow falling near Union Mills to snow covered roads by the time I get to I-40...all of that in a stretch of maybe 25 miles. Seem like back in the 80's (using that term again) the snow line usually ran from Taylorsville to Eastern Burke County and then along the Northern half of Rutherford County. 10 miles either side of that axis is the difference between slop and a major snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 @30 the NAM looks stronger and a little west of the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Apologize in advance for the large images. Couldn't figure out how to reduce the sizes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The GFS actually matches the euro with BL temps at 18z upon further inspection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I 100% agree with your statement. Sitting just over 1000' here so, points to my west n and s towards polk, could be game on.. I agree...its going to be close. I know in recent weeks a lot of us has thrown around the ol' verbage that we're in an 80's type of snowstorm pattern. Of all the snows we have had in the past year-plus, this upcoming storm could actually be the most "retro" like storm of all in terms of the eventual evolution. I think somebody not far from my house (if not me) is going to get hammered big time from this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow for dylan Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 where is everyone??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Looks further west to me at 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The GFS actually matches the euro with BL temps at 18z upon further inspection. Good, but I'm really praying for the HP to trend west over the NE. The BL issue is a little concerning IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Not up to 36 on ncep, but @30 looks west... Looks further west to me at 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tgarren Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 where is everyone??? out buying umbrellas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 @45 that HP is trucking east lets see what happens...BTW our energy is further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Dig baby dig, @48 our low is forming and looks much more robust then the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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