Rankin5150 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 About to go to a good friends house and have not read any of this thread yet. However, I looked at the GFS and NAM and I am ugh for this are. HOWEVER (again), this is so far out. I saw another HP sliding in behind the one that will be OTS when the precip gets here (can a Pro chime in on that?). This thing is far from over IMHO. I bet we will all be surprised with some heavy wet snow come late Tues or early Weds. There is a LOT of cold air pooled up in Canada and we have plenty of time to see a change for the better (in regards to temp profiles through the column). I am not throwing in the towel yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The 18z GFS ensemble mean is absolutely jacked with a slightly inland track. I be there are some impressive individual members to see in an hour. I'm starting to think a slightly inland track will actually be better for alot of folks because it would mean a stronger system. More rain and snow but more backside accumulating snow for more of us east of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Some observations after thinking about what has been in the thread all day: 1. If there is no high in the northeast, there is nothing on the map that I can find that will keep this near the coast. It will go inland. I think that is why the JMA, Canadian, and Ukie are west. To be sure, the Canadian has been in error several times this winter w/ over playing qpf in the TN Valley. So, I don't completely trust it. Though, if you live in this area, the 12z version is nice to look at. The Ukie being west is interesting just because it has been more suppressed w/ storms this year. 2. The Euro has been trending slightly east w/ the last two runs - slightly. That said, it is more of a coastal hugger. It is possible that interaction w/ energy in the plains is causing this system to kick on out. That may be what the Euro is seeing. 3. I would not trust the GFS as this point. A model that has no solution for three days and then finds it w/ one run, cannot be trusted until it catches on to what's afoot. Did anyone expect 18z to be different? 4. When the new 0z models begin to come out, we may(stress) get some consensus or not. It could be the Euro is trending south due to it losing the storm again. Maybe not. Just something to think about. 5. My thinking on the track, until I can find reasons otherwise, is that this will be an inland runner from around Mobile to inside of Hatteras. This is not the same set-up as the Christmas storm nor the last storm. That said, there is definitely a part of me that thinks this will trend south and east just because that's what has happened all season. There is some value in that thinking in that when a pattern repeats itself...it may again. However, this is probably not the same case. 6. Phil882 authored what I put in my signature. I state that because tomorrow at 12z, many parts of our region will be w/in 72 hrs of the event. I'm going to see what the top verifying models predict and go w/ that - if it is indeed sensible weather. Most of us this winter didn't know big snow was coming until that time frame anyway. No reason to be throwing in the towel for anyone just yet. 7. For TN folks, if that low tracks across the Florida panhandle and hugs the coast thereafter(unless it is on steriods like the '93 storm), it will not be strong enough to throw moisture back over the mountains in an appreciable manner. The track of the storm matters - not just where qpf sets up. I stated that last night. I am stating it again. Tagging onto that point, for snow in middle and NE TN to accumulate from this type of set-up, the lows will need to move just south of central GA and into the Piedmont. It looks more like it will begin in the panhandle and cut inside of Hatteras. That will bring some snow, just not maximum potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Guys it's not just about the surface temps. It's about the DEPTH of the warm air at the surface. Yes it can snow in the mid 30s, hell it can snow in the 40s..I've gotten snow at 45 before, but it takes totally different conditions for that to happen than what we are looking at currently. It can't do that if the temps and wetbulbs are significantly above freezing for 2000 to 3000 feet. It does NOT matter if 850s are subfreezing, if you have a mid to upper 30s that deep, you are looking at rain unless there is truly strong dynamics and very intense precip is occurring. I'm not sure i would buy the gfs or nam profiles yet. The euro has 850 temps of -2C here at 90 and 96 hours, with 925mb temps only slightly above freezing around 1C. This is without appreciable precip for whatever reason on this run of the euro. I just don't think we can right this one off as "boundary layer problems, no snow"... ***IMBY warning tag*** This post was intended to be used by people living in western NC, NW SC, and northern georgia. And was not intended to be reproduced or distributed outside of this area*** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Some observations after thinking about what has been in the thread all day: 1. If there is no high in the northeast, there is nothing on the map that I can find that will keep this near the coast. It will go inland. I think that is why the JMA, Canadian, and Ukie are west. To be sure, the Canadian has been in error several times this winter w/ over playing qpf in the TN Valley. So, I don't completely trust it. Though, if you live in this area, the 12z version is nice to look at. The Ukie being west is interesting just because it has been more suppressed w/ storms this year. 2. The Euro has been trending slightly east w/ the last two runs - slightly. That said, it is more of a coastal hugger. It is possible that interaction w/ energy in the plains is causing this system to kick on out. That may be what the Euro is seeing. 3. I would not trust the GFS as this point. A model that has no solution for three days and then finds it w/ one run, cannot be trusted until it catches on to what's afoot. Did anyone expect 18z to be different? 4. When the new 0z models begin to come out, we may(stress) get some consensus or not. It could be the Euro is trending south due to it losing the storm again. Maybe not. Just something to think about. 5. My thinking on the track, until I can find reasons otherwise, is that this will be an inland runner from around Mobile to inside of Hatteras. This is not the same set-up as the Christmas storm nor the last storm. That said, there is definitely a part of me that thinks this will trend south and east just because that's what has happened all season. There is some value in that thinking in that when a pattern repeats itself...it may again. However, this is probably not the same case. 6. Phil882 authored what I put in my signature. I state that because tomorrow at 12z, many parts of our region will be w/in 72 hrs of the event. I'm going to see what the top verifying models predict and go w/ that - if it is indeed sensible weather. Most of us this winter didn't know big snow was coming until that time frame anyway. No reason to be throwing in the towel for anyone just yet. 7. For TN folks, if that low tracks across the Florida panhandle and hugs the coast thereafter(unless it is on steriods like the '93 storm), it will not be strong enough to throw moisture back over the mountains in an appreciable manner. The track of the storm matters - not just where qpf sets up. I stated that last night. I am stating it again. Tagging onto that point, for snow in middle and NE TN to accumulate from this type of set-up, the lows will need to move just south of central GA and into the Piedmont. It looks more like it will begin in the panhandle and cut inside of Hatteras. That will bring some snow, just not maximum potential. Good post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman566 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I remember forecasting for the March 2009 storm, and I was heavily leaning towards all rain for Athens. All of a sudden, the night before the storm, NAM showed about 6-7 inches of snow for Athens. What happened? Athens received 6 inches of snow. So I agree with everyone else, things can and will change. Look at the past three 0z GFS maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 you guys are something. Already writing this thing off and using soundings as if they're factual at this point. The pattern is a good one for a big, wet snow for some areas north of the low track generally somewhere from Al/Tn border, east northeast from there , but its too early to fine tune that track yet. I'm still impressed with the height falls that begin just before the precip arrives in Ga and the Carolinas, they're pretty low, so even without a parent high, evap. cooling and dynamic cooling can work wonders esp. with any elevation at all, around 85 corridor and west. No one is writing it off robert but you can't ignore these boundary layer temps all all the models are showing. Yes the pattern is great, low track is near perfect but cold air is lacking with this storm and not sure how anyone can deny that. I want it to snow as much as anyone but I can't just ignore the fact the models show a 3000 foot deep surface warm layer everywhere you look that's on the order of 2 to 4c. I feel like maybe some are letting the success of these past storms influence and that's a mistake imho because unlike all those others this one is not nearly as cold. Sometimes you can have an otherwise perfect scenerio, track, upper levels, etc and still come up short, it's happened before. I hope things change, I'm not saying they can't and I pray they will, but I have to call it like I see it as it stands right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Greg Fishel just tweeted this for RDU gbfishel: Our upcoming storm will b arriving so late (Tues pm), there will be no fresh supply of cold air to tap into. Thus, it may be mostly rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I haven't looked at the 18z models that closely other than to know nothing has changed a great deal and all is in limbo. However, I see a few comments about another hp in canada beginning to slide south. I also remember this past Tuesday night when the big rain storm was supposed to hit and I had freezing rain by 10pm and the next morning my driveway was a sheet of ice, there were numerous accidents, and schools were delayed (again). This hp seemed to appear almost out of nowhere and even then virtually everyone said it was too weak to make a difference. The trend this winter has been for the hp's from the north to press more and for surface temps to be several degrees colder than progged 48-72 hours earlier. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'm not sure i would buy the gfs or nam profiles yet. The euro has 850 temps of -2C here at 90 and 96 hours, with 925mb temps only slightly above freezing around 1C. This is without appreciable precip for whatever reason on this run of the euro. I just don't think we can right this one off as "boundary layer problems, no snow"... ***IMBY warning tag*** This post was intended to be used by people living in western NC, NW SC, and northern georgia. And was not intended to be reproduced or distributed outside of this area*** LOL... we won't have a good handle on the boundary layer temps until just before the event, I'm sure. Though when I think of boundary layer issues, I am reminded by last March's snow where it snowed pretty darn hard during the day with no accumulations. Ditto for the Christmas storm (for the first part). Painful to watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 LOL... we won't have a good handle on the boundary layer temps until just before the event, I'm sure. Though when I think of boundary layer issues, I am reminded by last March's snow where it snowed pretty darn hard during the day with no accumulations. Ditto for the Christmas storm (for the first part). Painful to watch! I don't think I have ever seen it snow so hard for so long, to end up with nothing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 LOL... we won't have a good handle on the boundary layer temps until just before the event, I'm sure. Though when I think of boundary layer issues, I am reminded by last March's snow where it snowed pretty darn hard during the day with no accumulations. Ditto for the Christmas storm (for the first part). Painful to watch! This is what i'm most worried about here. I will never forget last March when GSP had me getting 5.5 inches of snow and I ended up with a dusting thanks to boundary layer temp problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I just finished watching two local channels and both are pretty confident that the Piedmont Triad will be snow. Both Mets said it may start off as a mix on Tuesday evening but they feel pretty confident that it will change to all snow by Wednesday. They were also smart enough to say "Depending on the track, things can still change". But for now, "this could be a significant snowstorm" is being herd quite frequently from all the local mets. I just found out what time all the models come out but I have a question. Which model is considered the Euro? ECMWF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I thought looking at surface temps beyond 24 hours was a total crapshoot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I just finished watching two local channels and both are pretty confident that the Piedmont Triad will be snow. Both Mets said it may start off as a mix on Tuesday evening but they feel pretty confident that it will change to all snow by Wednesday. They were also smart enough to say "Depending on the track, things can still change". But for now, "this could be a significant snowstorm" is being herd quite frequently from all the local mets. I just found out what time all the models come out but I have a question. Which model is considered the Euro? ECMWF? Yes the ECMWF is the Euro. I have also noted the optimism. Our guys are on the realistic side of things right now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I think this storm has sparked a ton of IMBY conflicts. I was actually thinking a few days ago what kind of chaos a blizzard of 93 or carolina crusher would cause on these boards. In one storm the mountains,foothills, and western Piedmont received 10-20 inches while the eastern areas got next to nothing. The reverse happened in the caroliana crusher. It has indeed. The Blizzard of 93 would definitely cause some issues. The Carolina Crusher was such a surprise that it would not have had time to really cause many conflicts, at least until after the fact. On the whole cliff diving thing, you certainly shouldn't use one run of a bad model to support or cancel a snowstorm, but if you have any meteorological sensibility, you can recognize what most models are telling you, and that is without powerful, dynamically driven precipitation, you have little chance with this storm outside the mountains and foothills. The pattern is not favorable for much else. And I think people tend to forget, the entire precipitation shield of this storm will not have enough dynamics in every spot to overcome the strong WAA with no offsetting CAA. Not everyone under the precip shield left of the SLP track is going to get continuous strong dynamics and snow. I don't think there's anything wrong with observing and stating that no more than there is anything wrong with stating what CAN occur or change that might favor more snow outside of the above mentioned areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 This is my feelings as well especially for central NC. The 12z ECMWF and 18z GFS are almost perfect low tracks for significant winter storms in our area. Fact of the matter remains even with a perfect track, the lack of a high to the north (low level cold air feed) will be the death blow to us seeing anything more than some light snow on the back end of the system. Yep. Good HP is rule number 1. You can get snowstorms without it, but not with great confidence can you forecast them. Usually, you need a crowbar and a shoehorn. And I mean for areas outside the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 It has indeed. The Blizzard of 93 would definitely cause some issues. The Carolina Crusher was such a surprise that it would not have had time to really cause many conflicts, at least until after the fact. On the whole cliff diving thing, you certainly shouldn't use one run of a bad model to support or cancel a snowstorm, but if you have any meteorological sensibility, you can recognize what most models are telling you, and that is without powerful, dynamically driven precipitation, you have little chance with this storm outside the mountains and foothills. The pattern is not favorable for much else. And I think people tend to forget, the entire precipitation shield of this storm will not have enough dynamics in every spot to overcome the strong WAA with no offsetting CAA. Not everyone under the precip shield left of the SLP track is going to get continuous strong dynamics and snow. I don't think there's anything wrong with observing and stating that no more than there is anything wrong with stating what CAN occur or change that might favor more snow outside of the above mentioned areas. So true about the observation part. It has to become science at some point - even if someone's backyard doesn't get hammered. Just state the facts please . Sometimes it's nice to appreciate what is happening purely from a scientific standpoint. I think that is an aquired taste though. It's kind of like fishing. I have flyfished long enough that I don't have to catch fish everytime. Sometimes it's nice to know the fish can still outsmart me - makes them worthy adverseries. Many times when I take someone who is new to the sport, if they don't catch fish they are ready to go after thirty minutes. I can stand out there for hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 LOL at all the panic with the 18z gfs... Lets just completely ignore the OP run right now and look at its ensemble mean. This should tell you everything you need to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 Andy Wood just posted a video update for the Upstate and WNC...sounds like a "close but no cigar" in the Upstate for their first call. http://www.foxcaroli...blog/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 LOL at all the panic with the 18z gfs... Lets just completely ignore the OP run right now and look at its ensemble mean. This should tell you everything you need to know. Yep, what are your thoughts on all this discussion of temp profiles? Seems thats what scared everyone when some of the good mets from RDU started discussing that...of course they were probably talking about RDU which most people took way out of context. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Guys it's not just about the surface temps. It's about the DEPTH of the warm air at the surface. Yes it can snow in the mid 30s, hell it can snow in the 40s..I've gotten snow at 45 before, but it takes totally different conditions for that to happen than what we are looking at currently. It can't do that if the temps and wetbulbs are significantly above freezing for 2000 to 3000 feet. It does NOT matter if 850s are subfreezing, if you have a mid to upper 30s that deep, you are looking at rain unless there is truly strong dynamics and very intense precip is occurring. Other than a strong CAD or dynamic cooling from intense precip, is there any other mechanism to cool this layer? Just curious. Would being directly under the upper level low help? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'm not sure i would buy the gfs or nam profiles yet. The euro has 850 temps of -2C here at 90 and 96 hours, with 925mb temps only slightly above freezing around 1C. This is without appreciable precip for whatever reason on this run of the euro. I just don't think we can right this one off as "boundary layer problems, no snow"... ***IMBY warning tag*** This post was intended to be used by people living in western NC, NW SC, and northern georgia. And was not intended to be reproduced or distributed outside of this area*** The fact that your 925 temps are even 1c isn't all that great. That is still a pretty deep layer of above freezing temps to be overcome and I don't know about how your area plays out, but I wouldn't expect snow at all here with 925s that warm, knowing my surface temp is only 35 or 36 degrees. I've seen it happen a few times and it was rain every time. Plus everywhere you look and no matter what model you look at, 850s are not that cold. Nam for example at first glance looks great..but not really. They are in fact only around -1c to -2c over alabama/ga. That isn't great if you are looking for snow aloft to overcome a warm layer because the actual temperature of that snow flake is not that cold. So the flake doesn't survive very far down once it reaches it. If 850s were -4c or so they would have a lot better chance at surviving deeper into the warm layer and cooling it. Like the nam suggests over extreme ne alabama/sw tn, there could be some localized cooling but widespread cooling seems unlikely to me. If we were just talking about surface to 950mb temps of 1c or so it would be one thing but 3 or 4c seems almost impossible to overcome and unfortunately these warm temps seem to encompass everyone. (not counting the mountains of course). Which is another thing that bothers me, the warm temps cover a huge area. I'm not just talking north Ga or the upstate, it's everyone. Some are dismissing this because it's the nam/gfs and that's fine but even using the euro I don't see many encouraging signs because 850s aren't that cold for a lot of places on that model either. Yes we are 3 days out and things could change but I'd be lying if I said there wasn't a lot of things I don't like (and not just for north ga). Maybe some will win out in the end though..we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 LOL at all the panic with the 18z gfs... Lets just completely ignore the OP run right now and look at its ensemble mean. This should tell you everything you need to know. thats a ton of qpf for an ensemble mean look how broad that area is basically the whole eastern seaboard lol the rest of the members most have just sat back an planned to play a joke on the operational lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Just because it has the track doesn't mean it has any other single aspect about the storm correct, haven't you learned that by now ESPECIALLY this winter?? You are right, you will prob be rain though. So stop posting and bringing down the whole board. Enjoy your drought buster and be happy with it. See you next winter. Ps: can we just make a thread for people NW of I85 so we don't hear all the nonsense from cliff divers? There's no reason for the tude there ace. In any of my posts anywhere, did I say the 18Z GFS has all of the features right, INCLUDING the track? It probably has the track too far east. I'm not model-hugging the GFS or anything else. If you've observed any of the models, regardless of their track, BL temps, 850 line placement, QPF, etc., the one thing they have in common is that the ALL have the cold air source (HP) moving out too quickly. They all do not show a 50/50 low. They all do not show a -NAO. I'm sorry, but this is a storm discussion thread. I have as much right to talk about what's actually showing up in the pattern and its historically provable implications as others who post reasons why it might maybe snow if things work out just exactly perfectly right, outside the mountains and foothills. If anyone is being brought down by a dose of reality, then maybe that's not such a bad thing. Without the above components, an inland track is more probable than offshore one. If that happens with all these marginal temps around then it's going to make it even more difficult for a lot of snow for areas east of where I mentioned above. Difficult, not impossible. I'm sorry, but that's the reality of it. I'm not sad. I'm not cliff diving. I'm discussing a point of view that has historical backing. Now, if you'd care to point out some meteorology as to why snow is the favored precip type east of the foothills, by all means, proceed. And don't hand me dynamics, because not everyone is going to wind up under the strong dynamics through the duration of the event. Maybe you believe that the models are too quick to move the high out? If so, why? I suppose the storm could slow down by 1 or 2 days giving another high time to build in? Or feel free to snipe me some more. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 So true about the observation part. It has to become science at some point - even if someone's backyard doesn't get hammered. Just state the facts please . Sometimes it's nice to appreciate what is happening purely from a scientific standpoint. I think that is an aquired taste though. It's kind of like fishing. I have flyfished long enough that I don't have to catch fish everytime. Sometimes it's nice to know the fish can still outsmart me - makes them worthy adverseries. Many times when I take someone who is new to the sport, if they don't catch fish they are ready to go after thirty minutes. I can stand out there for hours. Well stated. I have never fly fished, but it looks like fun. Always wanted to learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luv2wx4cast Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Some observations after thinking about what has been in the thread all day: 1. If there is no high in the northeast, there is nothing on the map that I can find that will keep this near the coast. It will go inland. I think that is why the JMA, Canadian, and Ukie are west. To be sure, the Canadian has been in error several times this winter w/ over playing qpf in the TN Valley. So, I don't completely trust it. Though, if you live in this area, the 12z version is nice to look at. The Ukie being west is interesting just because it has been more suppressed w/ storms this year. 2. The Euro has been trending slightly east w/ the last two runs - slightly. That said, it is more of a coastal hugger. It is possible that interaction w/ energy in the plains is causing this system to kick on out. That may be what the Euro is seeing. 3. I would not trust the GFS as this point. A model that has no solution for three days and then finds it w/ one run, cannot be trusted until it catches on to what's afoot. Did anyone expect 18z to be different? 4. When the new 0z models begin to come out, we may(stress) get some consensus or not. It could be the Euro is trending south due to it losing the storm again. Maybe not. Just something to think about. 5. My thinking on the track, until I can find reasons otherwise, is that this will be an inland runner from around Mobile to inside of Hatteras. This is not the same set-up as the Christmas storm nor the last storm. That said, there is definitely a part of me that thinks this will trend south and east just because that's what has happened all season. There is some value in that thinking in that when a pattern repeats itself...it may again. However, this is probably not the same case. 6. Phil882 authored what I put in my signature. I state that because tomorrow at 12z, many parts of our region will be w/in 72 hrs of the event. I'm going to see what the top verifying models predict and go w/ that - if it is indeed sensible weather. Most of us this winter didn't know big snow was coming until that time frame anyway. No reason to be throwing in the towel for anyone just yet. 7. For TN folks, if that low tracks across the Florida panhandle and hugs the coast thereafter(unless it is on steriods like the '93 storm), it will not be strong enough to throw moisture back over the mountains in an appreciable manner. The track of the storm matters - not just where qpf sets up. I stated that last night. I am stating it again. Tagging onto that point, for snow in middle and NE TN to accumulate from this type of set-up, the lows will need to move just south of central GA and into the Piedmont. It looks more like it will begin in the panhandle and cut inside of Hatteras. That will bring some snow, just not maximum potential. ^^^^^^^^ + 1 ^^^^^^^^. Very nice insight. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Sometimes a PM to a member is better than posting your thoughts for all to see.. Just saying........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 FWIW, the 18z DGEX is a non event more or less. 6z had the big one. (Don't take it too seriously though.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 There's no reason for the tude there ace. In any of my posts anywhere, did I say the 18Z GFS has all of the features right, INCLUDING the track? It probably has the track too far east. I'm not model-hugging the GFS or anything else. If you've observed any of the models, regardless of their track, BL temps, 850 line placement, QPF, etc., the one thing they have in common is that the ALL have the cold air source (HP) moving out too quickly. They all do not show a 50/50 low. They all do not show a -NAO. I'm sorry, but this is a storm discussion thread. I have as much right to talk about what's actually showing up in the pattern and its historically provable implications as others who post reasons why it might maybe snow if things work out just exactly perfectly right, outside the mountains and foothills. If anyone is being brought down by a dose of reality, then maybe that's not such a bad thing. Without the above components, an inland track is more probable than offshore one. If that happens with all these marginal temps around then it's going to make it even more difficult for a lot of snow for areas east of where I mentioned above. Difficult, not impossible. I'm sorry, but that's the reality of it. I'm not sad. I'm not cliff diving. I'm discussing a point of view that has historical backing. Now, if you'd care to point out some meteorology as to why snow is the favored precip type east of the foothills, by all means, proceed. And don't hand me dynamics, because not everyone is going to wind up under the strong dynamics through the duration of the event. Maybe you believe that the models are too quick to move the high out? If so, why? I suppose the storm could slow down by 1 or 2 days giving another high time to build in? Or feel free to snipe me some more. Thanks. Just let me be under the deformation band of a coastal storm making the perfect track in January and I will take my chances with the BL issues. Even if it is all rain, I want to be in the sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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