Jan 25/26 Storm Threat...(Part 3)

[Suncat]

RAH is now predicting a high of 43 degrees on Tuesday, 32 on Tuesday night and 42 on Wednesday for Raleigh, NC. That doesn't bode well for much accumulation. Looks like I will be going to work every day next week!

[Amos83]

Foothills, I think there is so much cliff diving because you haven't been around as much to save us all! Thanks for the words of encouragement.... one thing to remember is this is still several days away so to be writing this off already is foolish

[burgertime]

I've been hoping that the models will trend in the colder/wetter direction. I still hope so. But the set up to me doesn't seem that favorable really (historically speaking). But again, I'm hoping for the best. Plus, I thought the GGEM/GFS/UKMET were all verbatim too warm for snow now for the 85 corridor. It seems like the trend by good models was warmer overall. Am I wrong on that?

We just saw a bit of a jump east and the system coming a little later, the last part being the most important. If you look at the last thread I called the Euro coming in the way it did because it always seems to do that, when the GFS finally jumps on board it always takes the GFS and over does it allitle. Just like the Christmas storm, it had the superbomb but the GFS didn't, then the GFS saw the bomb but super weak and so the euro made the bomb even weaker then the GFS IIRC. Tonight is anyone's guess with models but I assume the GFS brings it faster and more wrapped up while the Euro comes slower and slightly more south and east.....only to readjust back to something more like tonights GFS. I also can almost bet the NAM brings the storm in faster on the 00z run.

Just my thoughts.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

http://www.hpc.ncep....psnow_gt_04.gif

HPC day three day 4" snowfall probability. Early signs.........

...DAY 3 SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING A CYCLONE TO BEGIN DEVELOPING IN THE

GULF OF MEXICO AND TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST US THE LATTER HALF

OF DAY 3. DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW TURNS UPSLOPE IN

THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST TN/NORTHERN GA/WESTERN NC...WITH SNOW

LIKELY DEVELOPING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS OF DAY 3 AFTER SATURATION

OCCURS IN THE INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS. THE GFS SLOWED THE FORWARD

PROGRESSION OF THE DEVELOPING LOW...AND NOW IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT

WITH THE ECMWF/UKMET ON THE LOW TRACK THROUGH 00Z WED. MANUAL

PROGS BLENDED THE QPF AND THERMAL PROFILES OF THE 00-12Z ECMWF/12Z

GFS/09Z SREF MEAN. THE SLOWER NAM LOW TRACK WAS GIVEN LESS

WEIGHT.

[burgertime]

http://www.hpc.ncep....psnow_gt_04.gif

HPC day three day 4" snowfall probability. Early signs.........

Cause they always nail it three days away!

[Cold Rain]

i'm not sure why people are so hung up on a model that didn't have the storm at all this morning.

The GFS is like the best case scenario in terms of track (as well as the euro). If you can't get snow with that track, there's really no reason to get hung up on other models that show a worse track...imo.

[Carvers Gap]

We just saw a bit of a jump east and the system coming a little later, the last part being the most important. If you look at the last thread I called the Euro coming in the way it did because it always seems to do that, when the GFS finally jumps on board it always takes the GFS and over does it allitle. Just like the Christmas storm, it had the superbomb but the GFS didn't, then the GFS saw the bomb but super weak and so the euro made the bomb even weaker then the GFS IIRC. Tonight is anyone's guess with models but I assume the GFS brings it faster and more wrapped up while the Euro comes slower and slightly more south and east.....only to readjust back to something more like tonights GFS. I also can almost bet the NAM brings the storm in faster on the 00z run.

Just my thoughts.

It depends on the high in the northeast. If that high holds on long enough, the slp will slide along. If it moves out quick, there is nothing from stopping this as an inland runner.

[Carvers Gap]

lol exactly. Yesterday when the GFS was showing NOTHING There wasn't anyone cliff jumping but now that the GFS has jumped on board and just shows slightly warmer temps everyone is ready to write it off? Come on!! We still got a day of more changes.

This is MID JAN. again if we are on the border I'll ALWAYS take those chances.

Very true. I also see no reason to trust a model that only found the potential solution one run ago. It may take a 0z run and a 12 z run for the GFS to even come into focus.

[triadwx]

It depends on the high in the northeast. If that high holds on long enough, the slp will slide along. If it moves out quick, there is nothing from stopping this as an inland runner.

I seem to remember seeing another HP in Canada, if we can get another decent HP over New England-ish, then there shall beith no more doubt..

[jburns]

Cause they always nail it three days away!

I agree with it. There is at least a 10% probability.

[burgertime]

Very true. I also see no reason to trust a model that only found the potential solution one run ago. It may take a 0z run and a 12 z run for the GFS to even come into focus.

In your case I would be liking my chances either way, if it hangs low and runs up the coast I think you still got a chance and if it's an inland runner well then look out!

[stinky]

Brad Panovich says the low will track just offshore bringing snow to the piedmont of nc/sc. Snowmeter is at a 2. I love that guy.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

The GFS is like the best case scenario in terms of track (as well as the euro). If you can't get snow with that track, there's really no reason to get hung up on other models that show a worse track...imo.

Agree with the bolded part. Climo says if we get a track like that in January, there will most likely be snow involved at some point. Can't see this one being much different for our area. Tonight's runs will hopefully give us a clearer picture.

[SnowNiner]

We just saw a bit of a jump east and the system coming a little later, the last part being the most important. If you look at the last thread I called the Euro coming in the way it did because it always seems to do that, when the GFS finally jumps on board it always takes the GFS and over does it allitle. Just like the Christmas storm, it had the superbomb but the GFS didn't, then the GFS saw the bomb but super weak and so the euro made the bomb even weaker then the GFS IIRC. Tonight is anyone's guess with models but I assume the GFS brings it faster and more wrapped up while the Euro comes slower and slightly more south and east.....only to readjust back to something more like tonights GFS. I also can almost bet the NAM brings the storm in faster on the 00z run.

Just my thoughts.

Thanks Burger, good thoughts. I'll drop back and watch I guess. My thing is there are not any really GOOD model runs anymore. The best ones have marginal temps where we're depending on evaporative cooling, dynamic cooling, and rapid precip rates to get us snow to stick. That sucks frankly. I don't have any faith in that. That type of stuff may get us some snow to fall from the sky but it's not going to do much else. And in regard to the models, it's 3 days away. That's not that far. There should be "general" understanding about the overall set up by this time, and in other storms there is. I think there is here too. Rain for the piedmont, snow for mountains upper foothills is what I'm reading from most models. Probably alot like the Christmas storm and March 2009. I'd love to be wrong but that's the vibe I get right now. Let's hope you're right and this thing gets 5 degrees colder between now and Tuesday.

[HKY_WX]

The GFS is like the best case scenario in terms of track (as well as the euro). If you can't get snow with that track, there's really no reason to get hung up on other models that show a worse track...imo.

The euro has shown a snowstorm over the foothills and mountains for several runs in a row. So it's not like the gfs is the only mod out there.

[AirNelson39]

The GFS is like the best case scenario in terms of track (as well as the euro). If you can't get snow with that track, there's really no reason to get hung up on other models that show a worse track...imo.

Just because it has the track doesn't mean it has any other single aspect about the storm correct, haven't you learned that by now ESPECIALLY this winter??

You are right, you will prob be rain though. So stop posting and bringing down the whole board. Enjoy your drought buster and be happy with it. See you next winter.

Ps: can we just make a thread for people NW of I85 so we don't hear all the nonsense from cliff divers?

[EmersonGA]

Has the shortwave even reached the pacific coast yet?

[Cold Rain]

The euro has shown a snowstorm over the foothills and mountains for several runs in a row. So it's not like the gfs is the only mod out there.

I agree 100% with you. The Foothills and the Mountains. Anyone from those areas should feel pretty good. But there are a lot of folks in the SE not in the foothills and the mountains, for them, I don't see anything wrong with saying the GFS is marginal for snow or doesn't show snow anymore than if they said the Ukie or the CMC is marginal or doesn't show snow. Foothills and Mountains, different story.

[triadwx]

Has the shortwave even reached the pacific coast yet?

Its not arriving from the Pacific. It was in the Gulf of Alaska, then into Canada, and then it's going to dive down into the lower 48.

[msuwx]

Wow....I check in, and I see panic ensuing from some. For the I-85 corridor in NC, for example, the Euro simply looks like mostly snow to me. 850mb below freezing and getting colder during the precip. And verbatim, looking at 2m temps, mid 30s, which would probably still accumulate with heavy rates anyway, but who cares about 2m temps on a model prog 3+ days out.

This is still the stage of the game where, to me, you just try and nail down the track. If the track the Euro, and really the GFS, has is correct, then I would be quite surprised if the deform band precip is not mostly snow. That track just looks like snow.

[NEGa]

you guys are something. Already writing this thing off and using soundings as if they're factual at this point. The pattern is a good one for a big, wet snow for some areas north of the low track generally somewhere from Al/Tn border, east northeast from there , but its too early to fine tune that track yet. I'm still impressed with the height falls that begin just before the precip arrives in Ga and the Carolinas, they're pretty low, so even without a parent high, evap. cooling and dynamic cooling can work wonders esp. with any elevation at all, around 85 corridor and west.

Same thing happens beforé every storm. It does get old. People are cliff diving over the gfs and it has a new solution every run.

thats for sure - this is still several days away. if people have learned anything, it should be not to take any one model and any one run as the ultimate truth. all of the storms this year have behaved this way. we just have to wait for the pieces to all be in the sampling and the models start a consensus on a track and then we can pin down the details (ie soundings and rain/snow line)

[HKY_WX]

I agree 100% with you. The Foothills and the Mountains. Anyone from those areas should feel pretty good. But there are a lot of folks in the SE not in the foothills and the mountains, for them, I don't see anything wrong with saying the GFS is marginal for snow or doesn't show snow anymore than if they said the Ukie or the CMC is marginal or doesn't show snow. Foothills and Mountains, different story.

I think this storm has sparked a ton of IMBY conflicts. I was actually thinking a few days ago what kind of chaos a blizzard of 93 or carolina crusher would cause on these boards. In one storm the mountains,foothills, and western Piedmont received 10-20 inches while the eastern areas got next to nothing. The reverse happened in the caroliana crusher.

[tpsteffe]

The GFS is like the best case scenario in terms of track (as well as the euro). If you can't get snow with that track, there's really no reason to get hung up on other models that show a worse track...imo.

This is my feelings as well especially for central NC. The 12z ECMWF and 18z GFS are almost perfect low tracks for significant winter storms in our area. Fact of the matter remains even with a perfect track, the lack of a high to the north (low level cold air feed) will be the death blow to us seeing anything more than some light snow on the back end of the system.

[FoothillsNC]

As the storm starts to come into focus we can get a much better picture of the setup. If its a coastal hugger, then look for there to be a pool of sub zero 850's over I-85 and banked up to the Mtns, from near GSO to GSP to ne GA. I've seen that happen many times on that track with marginal temps as the models start recognizing evap and dynamic cooling (like a run of Euro recently) Also the QPF would be coming up , again if thats a coastal or just inland scenario, which I'm leaning now.. Of course there's going to be a track where its just rain and a nearby town will be snow, thats how this system is.

[NEGa]

Cause they always nail it three days away!

i dunno, looks pretty good to me

The euro has shown a snowstorm over the foothills and mountains for several runs in a row. So it's not like the gfs is the only mod out there.

when the euro has been consistent for several runs in a row this year like this, it has usually done very well. certainly not time for all the despair i have been seeing this is the same way all of the storms the last two years have basically played out so its still going to be a good winter storm for some folks

Of course there's going to be a track where its just rain and a nearby town will be snow, thats how this system is.

thats how a lot of se systems are! all the wishing and IMBY wants dont make a hill of beans. just wait til we are closer and can start seeing who the winners are and who ends up in the screw zone. we all want it to snow in our back yards, but obviously all of us wont see it, sadly

[WXinCanton]

To the person who keeps posting northern alabama is going to get nailed, sorry, you and northern alabama are in the same boat..warm boundary layer there as well. You can't just go by the little blue line. Only the higher elevations in northeast alabama stand a shot at something significant. There is a chance of possibly some localized cooling associated with heavy precip which might cause a changeover for a little while outside the higher elevations, otherwise the only thing northern alabama will be nailed by is rain.

I guess we will see. Granted you have more a lot more wx knowledge than me, you will probably be right. I can hope though!! I don't like "dynamics" when talking snow, been burned with "dynamics"

[burgertime]

Thanks Burger, good thoughts. I'll drop back and watch I guess. My thing is there are not any really GOOD model runs anymore. The best ones have marginal temps where we're depending on evaporative cooling, dynamic cooling, and rapid precip rates to get us snow to stick. That sucks frankly. I don't have any faith in that. That type of stuff may get us some snow to fall from the sky but it's not going to do much else. And in regard to the models, it's 3 days away. That's not that far. There should be "general" understanding about the overall set up by this time, and in other storms there is. I think there is here too. Rain for the piedmont, snow for mountains upper foothills is what I'm reading from most models. Probably alot like the Christmas storm and March 2009. I'd love to be wrong but that's the vibe I get right now. Let's hope you're right and this thing gets 5 degrees colder between now and Tuesday.

In March 2009 we got close to 5 inches and it was one of the heaviest snows we've seen in a long time.

Just to clarify I understand the concern and it's legit, but like I said it's the middle of Jan and if we are on the fence our chances are equal. If this thing really wraps up and comes in a little faster then progged then we are in business which it easily can. Another thing to watch as Wow pointed out is that HP up in Canada, if it can slide down a little we might really be in business. The bottom line is this like all the other storms is going to be a now cast situation and the models will probably finally get a handle on it around Monday afternoon.

[NCBlizzard]

Wow....I check in, and I see panic ensuing from some. For the I-85 corridor in NC, for example, the Euro simply looks like mostly snow to me. 850mb below freezing and getting colder during the precip. And verbatim, looking at 2m temps, mid 30s, which would probably still accumulate with heavy rates anyway, but who cares about 2m temps on a model prog 3+ days out.

This is still the stage of the game where, to me, you just try and nail down the track. If the track the Euro, and really the GFS, has is correct, then I would be quite surprised if the deform band precip is not mostly snow. That track just looks like snow.

Thanks for chiming in Matt! And I 100% agree.

[Lookout]

Same here in western nc. I never look at surface temps. If its below freezing at 850 and up its snow as long as there is good precip. I have made it to 40 before and started as snow and the temp quickly drops into the low 30's. I guess surface temps could be a problem for people outside the mtns.

Guys it's not just about the surface temps. It's about the DEPTH of the warm air at the surface. Yes it can snow in the mid 30s, hell it can snow in the 40s..I've gotten snow at 45 before, but it takes totally different conditions for that to happen than what we are looking at currently. It can't do that if the temps and wetbulbs are significantly above freezing for 2000 to 3000 feet. It does NOT matter if 850s are subfreezing, if you have a mid to upper 30s that deep, you are looking at rain unless there is truly strong dynamics and very intense precip is occurring.

[Snoebuck]

This might belong in the Banter thread, but I'll say it anyway! I'm a long time lurker from here and Eastern. I remember March 2009 after it rained all day and everyone was cliff jumping except Foothills( Thanks Foothills for a voice of reason) and a met friend of his from FLA (if my memory is right). who helped bring everyone back from the cliff. We wound up with thundersnow and around 7" that night. After waking up this morning, things looked good, but after the last run of the GFS, which everyone had been dismissing before, things went to crap. I'm not saying it will wind up like March 2009, but let's be patient at least until the next Euro.