lilj4425 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Poor RAH -- they finally hype a storm in the medium term and it doesn't pan out .... GSP has me getting 70% of snow. Isohume should just take it away and put me out of my misery. Better to just get it over with sooner rather than later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I honestly think its way too early to write this storm off. Seems people give up on a couple of bad model runs every time, you'd think they'd learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I am just going to post this, as I did in the banter thread, to show everyone what a local CLT met (who I believe is one of the best in our region) is currently thinking about the latest models. Via Brad Panovich of WCNC: "Models, currently underestimating the arctic air mass & taking a low track inland that doesn't makes sense synoptically or climatologicaly" "the thing you have to remember about numerical wx models, they aren't forecasts, they are guidance. None had 6" of snow on the coast today" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I honestly think its way too early to write this storm off. Seems like people give up on a couple of bad model runs every time, you'd think they'd learn. They are giving up because the models aren't showing what they want for their backyard. Stupid reason for "throwing the towel in".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I don't even have much hope here in the northwestern tip of SC. No model is giving any snow here with the exception maybe a backside dusting at the end. We always have a tough time scouring out low level cold air here and I can tell you from experience that with what's being progged now, nobody in my area has a chance at a decent snowfall. I'm really not sure what the GSP office is seeing that makes them think we could get accumulating snow. I may take a ride up to the mountains on Tuesday afternoon if things pan out there. Trust me.......they are seeing the same model runs that we are seeing. The biggest difference is.....They don't model hug. They wait for a clear trend in all the models before moving in that direction. It could just as easily trend back in the direction of a colder more wrapped up solution on tonight's runs and they would have to jump back to a snowier forecast. If tonight's runs are similar to today's runs, then you will see a warmer forecast with the morning package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The 18z Ukmet looks better to me. It only goes out to 72hrs so we have to guess from here. The low will probably track a little farther inland, but it looks to me like the 5h trough stands a good chance at closing off on this run when compared to the 18z NAM/GFS which never closed off. So that's a good sign that at least some people might still be in the game outside of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Trust me.......they are seeing the same model runs that we are seeing. The biggest difference is.....They don't model hug. They wait for a clear trend in all the models before moving in that direction. It could just as easily trend back in the direction of a colder more wrapped up solution on tonight's runs and they would have to jump back to a snowier forecast. If tonight's runs are similar to today's runs, then you will see a warmer forecast with the morning package. Yeah call them and talk to them, they would think that everyone who is jumping to conclusions from run to run is nuts, but nevertheless.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 you guys are something. Already writing this thing off and using soundings as if they're factual at this point. The pattern is a good one for a big, wet snow for some areas north of the low track generally somewhere from Al/Tn border, east northeast from there , but its too early to fine tune that track yet. I'm still impressed with the height falls that begin just before the precip arrives in Ga and the Carolinas, they're pretty low, so even without a parent high, evap. cooling and dynamic cooling can work wonders esp. with any elevation at all, around 85 corridor and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Same thing happens beforé every storm. It does get old. People are cliff diving over the gfs and it has a new solution every run. And the jumping from the cliffs begins!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 latest GFS run, in addition to several others today I've noticed a HP center popping up over SE Canada. You can see a weak northernly flow into the CAD areas. A possibility this could trend stronger against the main HP out to sea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 And the jumping from the cliffs begins!!!!! No cliff jumping here. This one never had the right feel for my area. To many things needed to happen just right that were not yet in place to get a good snow. A + B + C = Snow A + B - C = Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I'm certainly not giving up on it, it just doesn't look like as much snow here. I really hate temps a degree or two above freezing and thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 you guys are something. Already writing this thing off and using soundings as if they're factual at this point. The pattern is a good one for a big, wet snow for some areas north of the low track generally somewhere from Al/Tn border, east northeast from there , but its too early to fine tune that track yet. I'm still impressed with the height falls that begin just before the precip arrives in Ga and the Carolinas, they're pretty low, so even without a parent high, evap. cooling and dynamic cooling can work wonders esp. with any elevation at all, around 85 corridor and west. Words of wisdom, stop the diving! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 this will get deleted but to deny that many here cliff dive in a matter of minutes and storms change from huge to nothing based on one model run is to deny reality. nobody knows what is going to happen but many here claim they do. The opposite is also true my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 you guys are something. Already writing this thing off and using soundings as if they're factual at this point. The pattern is a good one for a big, wet snow for some areas north of the low track generally somewhere from Al/Tn border, east northeast from there , but its too early to fine tune that track yet. I'm still impressed with the height falls that begin just before the precip arrives in Ga and the Carolinas, they're pretty low, so even without a parent high, evap. cooling and dynamic cooling can work wonders esp. with any elevation at all, around 85 corridor and west. Thank you for the reality check...I've been gone all day and just got a chance to catch up. If the 0z model suite shows the same general thing, we'll probably have mass suicides overnight statewide. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yeah call them and talk to them, they would think that everyone who is jumping to conclusions from run to run is nuts, but nevertheless.. Oh I thought that was kinda like cliff Jumping... Me I'm kinda like your man with the drink and the popcorn, Waiting till it's time to now cast.. then see what and where we have to go to work!!!! :popcorn: But I'm hoping for this to be able to happen.. :snowman: :snowman: :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 you guys are something. Already writing this thing off and using soundings as if they're factual at this point. The pattern is a good one for a big, wet snow for some areas north of the low track generally somewhere from Al/Tn border, east northeast from there , but its too early to fine tune that track yet. I'm still impressed with the height falls that begin just before the precip arrives in Ga and the Carolinas, they're pretty low, so even without a parent high, evap. cooling and dynamic cooling can work wonders esp. with any elevation at all, around 85 corridor and west. lol exactly. Yesterday when the GFS was showing NOTHING There wasn't anyone cliff jumping but now that the GFS has jumped on board and just shows slightly warmer temps everyone is ready to write it off? Come on!! We still got a day of more changes. This is MID JAN. again if we are on the border I'll ALWAYS take those chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The best things the models can do for central NC is tell us there is potential. No one really knows what will happen until it happens. There have been plenty of times we were supposed to get snow and didn't. But there have been just as many times we were not supposed to get snow and did. This is probably the hardest area in the country when it comes to forecasting snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 latest GFS run, in addition to several others today I've noticed a HP center popping up over SE Canada. You can see a weak northernly flow into the CAD areas. A possibility this could trend stronger against the main HP out to sea? I also noticed this! Another thing to remember is that usually systems this year have been FASTER then earlier progged by the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 you guys are something. Already writing this thing off and using soundings as if they're factual at this point. The pattern is a good one for a big, wet snow for some areas north of the low track generally somewhere from Al/Tn border, east northeast from there , but its too early to fine tune that track yet. I'm still impressed with the height falls that begin just before the precip arrives in Ga and the Carolinas, they're pretty low, so even without a parent high, evap. cooling and dynamic cooling can work wonders esp. with any elevation at all, around 85 corridor and west. Hope your feeling BETTER Robert... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The best things the models can do for central NC is tell us there is potential. No one really knows what will happen until it happens. There have been plenty of times we were supposed to get snow and didn't. But there have been just as many times we were not supposed to get snow and did. This is probably the hardest area in the country when it comes to forecasting snow. Very true. We are all probably going to have to wait out to "Nowcasting" on Tuesday, because the models aren't going to give us any consistency, because when you think you got something for 3 runs straight, it pulls back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GSP has me getting 70% of snow. Isohume should just take it away and put me out of my misery. Better to just get it over with sooner rather than later. Only listen to McAvoy from that office. He is a God and when he speaks, the weather listens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Alot of this needs to go in the banter thread. We are starting to get cluttered up in here. With that being said remember a few things. Try not to model hug so much. We are 3 days away from this event there are gonna be more changes good and bad for everyone. I am certianly not an expert or even skilled in weather prediction but, one thing I can say is there has been a trend this winter with the models to delay the start of precip. with these bigger systems. I relize they are all different but it happened here with the christmas storm & the Jan. storm by at least 6 hrs or more. It's not looking good for some areas but hold on for a little longer and see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The best things the models can do for central NC is tell us there is potential. No one really knows what will happen until it happens. There have been plenty of times we were supposed to get snow and didn't. But there have been just as many times we were not supposed to get snow and did. This is probably the hardest area in the country when it comes to forecasting snow. For once I 100% endorse a Brick statement and a wise statement at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I also noticed this! Another thing to remember is that usually systems this year have been FASTER then earlier progged by the models. RAH mentioned that in the last disco. Also said the precip rates could be enough to overcome the warm boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 +1 Going to whiff down a Ribeye and hopefully the funeral will be over latter tonight. What does this have to do with weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Alot of this needs to go in the banter thread. We are starting to get cluttered up in here. With that being said remember a few things. Try not to model hug so much. We are 3 days away from this event there are gonna be more changes good and bad for everyone. I am certianly not an expert or even skilled in weather prediction but, one thing I can say is there has been a trend this winter with the models to delay the start of precip. with these bigger systems. I relize they are all different but it happened here with the christmas storm & the Jan. storm by at least 6 hrs or more. It's not looking good for some areas but hold on for a little longer and see what happens. OK Don, Going back to my corner and learn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 lol exactly. Yesterday when the GFS was showing NOTHING There wasn't anyone cliff jumping but now that the GFS has jumped on board and just shows slightly warmer temps everyone is read to write it off? Come on!! We still got a day of more changes. This is MID JAN. again if we are on the border I'll ALWAYS take those chances. I've been hoping that the models will trend in the colder/wetter direction. I still hope so. But the set up to me doesn't seem that favorable really (historically speaking). But again, I'm hoping for the best. Plus, I thought the GGEM/GFS/UKMET were all verbatim too warm for snow now for the 85 corridor. It seems like the trend by good models was warmer overall. Am I wrong on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Thanks for chiming in Robert. I was getting a little worried with your silence. BTW can we rename the banter thread the "Cliff Diving thread" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I've been hoping that the models will trend in the colder/wetter direction. I still hope so. But the set up to me doesn't seem that favorable really (historically speaking). But again, I'm hoping for the best. Plus, I thought the GGEM/GFS/UKMET were all verbatim too warm for snow now for the 85 corridor. It seems like the trend by good models was warmer overall. Am I wrong on that? Im skeptical because trends trend back and forth. It will be warm today, and colder tomorrow. Thats how this game works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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