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Jan 25/26 Storm Threat...(Part 3)


Marion_NC_WX

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This is going to be a messy wet snow for those that do get snow outside of the mountains, and will probably not stick to the roads at all unless we get some heavy rates or its at night. Im not too excited for this storm as far as accumualtions here in CLT. Even with this last storm, we were in the upper 20s the entire storm here in charlotte and the snow failed to really stick to most paved surfaces. Good luck with surface temps in th 31-33 range (and thats being generous given most model output). :yikes:

Obviously its not set in stone but I dont see how this changes enough to signifcantly affect anyone outside of the mountains/ north of I-40

Just some random thoughts...

I have to disagree with your comment concerning the snow cover on the roads during the last storm. The snow began to fall at 3:45am here and by 4am the roads were completly white. Temps were 26-27°.

That was the fastest I've ever seen roads become covered and I've been around for awhile.They stayed covered for several days where left untreated. Quite amazing.

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Same here in western nc. I never look at surface temps. If its below freezing at 850 and up its snow as long as there is good precip. I have made it to 40 before and started as snow and the temp quickly drops into the low 30's. I guess surface temps could be a problem for people outside the mtns.

One thing I have witnessed living here in western NC for 46 years (elevation 1,025 ft)........If we can get in the deform band with good precip rates and 850's are <0, it will not take long for the snow to reach the ground. In the 1993 storm we were 50 degrees at onset. and in the mid 30's in less than 2 hours.

Also, one more thing that is being overlooked..........soil temps. We didn't get much above freezing today and with the up-coming cold nights, we will see ground temps pretty cold. That should certainly help keep the lowest levels colder.

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I agree -- except there will be plenty of places west of 77 that are all rain, too. I'm beginning to wonder if even the foothills and possibly even the mountains won't have boundary layer issues.

I am already moving on from this one. No parent high, No CAA, and an Inland track. It will be essentially a dismal cold rain. If you want a big hit chase west of I-77.

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I am already moving on from this one. No parent high, No CAA, and an Inland track. It will be essentially a dismal cold rain. If you want a big hit chase west of I-77.

I don't even have much hope here in the northwestern tip of SC. No model is giving any snow here with the exception maybe a backside dusting at the end. We always have a tough time scouring out low level cold air here and I can tell you from experience that with what's being progged now, nobody in my area has a chance at a decent snowfall. I'm really not sure what the GSP office is seeing that makes them think we could get accumulating snow. I may take a ride up to the mountains on Tuesday afternoon if things pan out there.

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I don't even have much hope here in the northwestern tip of SC. No model is giving any snow here with the exception maybe a backside dusting at the end. We always have a tough time scouring out low level cold air here and I can tell you from experience that with what's being progged now, nobody in my area has a chance at a decent snowfall. I'm really not sure what the GSP office is seeing that makes them think we could get accumulating snow. I may take a ride up to the mountains on Tuesday afternoon if things pan out there.

This is going to be like December 2009 where the mountains got dumped on while we got a cold rain. :axe: Oh well, i'm used to it.

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This is the definition of a fail storm, basically everywhere (outside of the mountains) with precip its too warm at the surface, and everywhere cold enough at the surface (like the Northeast) gets no precip :arrowhead:

This really reminds me of a late winter/early spring cutoff type storm, with the warm boundary layer isssue even with a good SLP track.

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GSP made note in the AFD about the updated thoughts on the RA/SN line... I think "as we stand now" they got it pegged nicely.

I don't even have much hope here in the northwestern tip of SC. No model is giving any snow here with the exception maybe a backside dusting at the end. We always have a tough time scouring out low level cold air here and I can tell you from experience that with what's being progged now, nobody in my area has a chance at a decent snowfall. I'm really not sure what the GSP office is seeing that makes them think we could get accumulating snow. I may take a ride up to the mountains on Tuesday afternoon if things pan out there.

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Yep. LOL They were already starting to back off a bit before the 18Z GFS. Can happen to anyone, its all part of the game.

Everyone Ive talked to here in Charlotte is already expecting a big winter storm, heard multiple mentions of it on the radio even... whoops :whistle:

Im just trying to think of similar setups to this where surface temps ended up busting to this degree, and surprised people with snow. Still some time left thought I dont think there should be too much cliff diving just yet. People should just lower their expectations thats all and maybe we all get a surprise.

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We need blocking back big time. I don't think we get any storm until we get it back; along with the -NAO. This storm has always looked to me like a rain storm. Snow CAD events are really rare in the piedmont. The highs that are in place always run away with a LOW from the gulf heading their way without the blocking. Has anybody seen any indication of a blocking pattern re-emerging in the long range?

I guess things can change; we'll see. Just not looking good.

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Although this storm does not resemble the Christmas storm in any way people were way to quick to write it off like this one. Yes things have trended bad really quickly but it can be reversed just as quickly.

Yeah, I recall that yesterday morning everyone was happy, now they are diving off cliffs. It's going to go the other way, just as fast.. :whistle:

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We need blocking back big time. I don't think we get any storm until we get it back; along with the -NAO. This storm has always looked to me like a rain storm. Snow CAD events are really rare in the piedmont. The highs that are in place always run away with a LOW from the gulf heading their way without the blocking. Has anybody seen any indication of a blocking pattern re-emerging in the long range?

I guess things can change; we'll see. Just not looking good.

GFS and Euro keep heights low over Greenland thorugh 240 hrs, with a massive PV setting up shop over central/eastern Canada. I see little chance for blocking with such a strong low intact. Flow is just too fast.

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+1. Have been wondering the same thing, plus it isn't that accurate 4 days out..

The euro shows about the same for me ? It flips flop like crazy too. I think it was friday 0z it gave me like 1.5 + qpf last night it was down to like less than .5 and today it give me .21 So I say it's crap too.... JMHO

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I think the problem with the latest trends for N. Ga/Upstate SC is this:

Yesterday most of the models were forming a closed 5h low and vertically stacking it at all layers. If we get this scenario, then we really will have a system strong enough to provide it's own cold air and give a heavy wet snowfall to people on the northwest side.

So what we need to happen in the models is for this trough to trend stronger at the base to the point where it will close off somewhere over southern Ga. The more it closes off the better. If the trough never closes off I think you can pretty much forget about it for us outside of the mountains.

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