packbacker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Well the 18z GFS at 63 is slightly more positive than 12z GFS which would assume it's going to be more east than 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The BL temps on the euro are significantly colder than the NAM is here...or at least at the sfc i'd love to see the HP trend back west but as the storm has been delayed we've basically lost our surface cold connection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Here is my preliminary outlook for the upcoming system. http://blizzard.atms.../local_jan.html Great map and first call...although I wish that in extreme NE GA that the boundary for rain/snow and heavy snow were 8 miles south! LOL You don't see the WAA robbing us of snow up here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freeze Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 This is going to be a messy wet snow for those that do get snow outside of the mountains, and will probably not stick to the roads at all unless we get some heavy rates or its at night. Im not too excited for this storm as far as accumualtions here in CLT. Even with this last storm, we were in the upper 20s the entire storm here in charlotte and the snow failed to really stick to most paved surfaces. Good luck with surface temps in th 31-33 range (and thats being generous given most model output). Obviously its not set in stone but I dont see how this changes enough to signifcantly affect anyone outside of the mountains/ north of I-40 Just some random thoughts... I have to disagree with your comment concerning the snow cover on the roads during the last storm. The snow began to fall at 3:45am here and by 4am the roads were completly white. Temps were 26-27°. That was the fastest I've ever seen roads become covered and I've been around for awhile.They stayed covered for several days where left untreated. Quite amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 18z gfs holds pretty much the same track as 12z but w/ more qpf...It's a shame we don't have any cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I am already moving on from this one. No parent high, No CAA, and an Inland track. It will be essentially a dismal cold rain. If you want a big hit chase west of I-77. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Same here in western nc. I never look at surface temps. If its below freezing at 850 and up its snow as long as there is good precip. I have made it to 40 before and started as snow and the temp quickly drops into the low 30's. I guess surface temps could be a problem for people outside the mtns. One thing I have witnessed living here in western NC for 46 years (elevation 1,025 ft)........If we can get in the deform band with good precip rates and 850's are <0, it will not take long for the snow to reach the ground. In the 1993 storm we were 50 degrees at onset. and in the mid 30's in less than 2 hours. Also, one more thing that is being overlooked..........soil temps. We didn't get much above freezing today and with the up-coming cold nights, we will see ground temps pretty cold. That should certainly help keep the lowest levels colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Nice Phil, ours look pretty similar. Here is the one I made earlier today.. I like that map, Chris.... worried that the zones might have to be shifted 30-40mi west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I agree -- except there will be plenty of places west of 77 that are all rain, too. I'm beginning to wonder if even the foothills and possibly even the mountains won't have boundary layer issues. I am already moving on from this one. No parent high, No CAA, and an Inland track. It will be essentially a dismal cold rain. If you want a big hit chase west of I-77. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 18z gfs holds pretty much the same track as 12z but w/ more qpf...It's a shame we don't have any cold air. It gives no precip to the foothills/mountains and completely misses the NE. Big rainstorm for us. The SLP track looks darn close to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I am already moving on from this one. No parent high, No CAA, and an Inland track. It will be essentially a dismal cold rain. If you want a big hit chase west of I-77. I don't even have much hope here in the northwestern tip of SC. No model is giving any snow here with the exception maybe a backside dusting at the end. We always have a tough time scouring out low level cold air here and I can tell you from experience that with what's being progged now, nobody in my area has a chance at a decent snowfall. I'm really not sure what the GSP office is seeing that makes them think we could get accumulating snow. I may take a ride up to the mountains on Tuesday afternoon if things pan out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I don't even have much hope here in the northwestern tip of SC. No model is giving any snow here with the exception maybe a backside dusting at the end. We always have a tough time scouring out low level cold air here and I can tell you from experience that with what's being progged now, nobody in my area has a chance at a decent snowfall. I'm really not sure what the GSP office is seeing that makes them think we could get accumulating snow. I may take a ride up to the mountains on Tuesday afternoon if things pan out there. This is going to be like December 2009 where the mountains got dumped on while we got a cold rain. Oh well, i'm used to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I'm getting this sort of feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I am already moving on from this one. No parent high, No CAA, and an Inland track. It will be essentially a dismal cold rain. If you want a big hit chase west of I-77. That my current thinking as well. The delay in the storm arriving killed it for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 This is the definition of a fail storm, basically everywhere (outside of the mountains) with precip its too warm at the surface, and everywhere cold enough at the surface (like the Northeast) gets no precip This really reminds me of a late winter/early spring cutoff type storm, with the warm boundary layer isssue even with a good SLP track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 With no QPF than whats progged, I could care less what my temps are. Hope it's in the 60s I hate cold rain GFS gives me .18 qpf Euro gives me .21 qpf Real juicy system for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GSP made note in the AFD about the updated thoughts on the RA/SN line... I think "as we stand now" they got it pegged nicely. I don't even have much hope here in the northwestern tip of SC. No model is giving any snow here with the exception maybe a backside dusting at the end. We always have a tough time scouring out low level cold air here and I can tell you from experience that with what's being progged now, nobody in my area has a chance at a decent snowfall. I'm really not sure what the GSP office is seeing that makes them think we could get accumulating snow. I may take a ride up to the mountains on Tuesday afternoon if things pan out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Poor RAH -- they finally hype a storm in the medium term and it doesn't pan out .... Yep. LOL They were already starting to back off a bit before the 18Z GFS. Can happen to anyone, its all part of the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yep. LOL They were already starting to back off a bit before the 18Z GFS. Can happen to anyone, its all part of the game. Everyone Ive talked to here in Charlotte is already expecting a big winter storm, heard multiple mentions of it on the radio even... whoops Im just trying to think of similar setups to this where surface temps ended up busting to this degree, and surprised people with snow. Still some time left thought I dont think there should be too much cliff diving just yet. People should just lower their expectations thats all and maybe we all get a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The GFS is definitely better than the NAM regarding BL issues here at hour 84z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 i'm not sure why people are so hung up on a model that didn't have the storm at all this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The GFS is definitely better than the NAM regarding BL issues here at hour 84z Yeah but the GFS pretty much says "storm over" by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 We need blocking back big time. I don't think we get any storm until we get it back; along with the -NAO. This storm has always looked to me like a rain storm. Snow CAD events are really rare in the piedmont. The highs that are in place always run away with a LOW from the gulf heading their way without the blocking. Has anybody seen any indication of a blocking pattern re-emerging in the long range? I guess things can change; we'll see. Just not looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 i'm not sure why people are so hung up on a model that didn't have the storm at all this morning. +1. Have been wondering the same thing, plus it isn't that accurate 4 days out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Although this storm does not resemble the Christmas storm in any way people were way to quick to write it off like this one. Yes things have trended bad really quickly but it can be reversed just as quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Although this storm does not resemble the Christmas storm in any way people were way to quick to write it off like this one. Yes things have trended bad really quickly but it can be reversed just as quickly. Yeah, I recall that yesterday morning everyone was happy, now they are diving off cliffs. It's going to go the other way, just as fast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 We need blocking back big time. I don't think we get any storm until we get it back; along with the -NAO. This storm has always looked to me like a rain storm. Snow CAD events are really rare in the piedmont. The highs that are in place always run away with a LOW from the gulf heading their way without the blocking. Has anybody seen any indication of a blocking pattern re-emerging in the long range? I guess things can change; we'll see. Just not looking good. GFS and Euro keep heights low over Greenland thorugh 240 hrs, with a massive PV setting up shop over central/eastern Canada. I see little chance for blocking with such a strong low intact. Flow is just too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 +1. Have been wondering the same thing, plus it isn't that accurate 4 days out.. The euro shows about the same for me ? It flips flop like crazy too. I think it was friday 0z it gave me like 1.5 + qpf last night it was down to like less than .5 and today it give me .21 So I say it's crap too.... JMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Poor RAH -- they finally hype a storm in the medium term and it doesn't pan out .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I think the problem with the latest trends for N. Ga/Upstate SC is this: Yesterday most of the models were forming a closed 5h low and vertically stacking it at all layers. If we get this scenario, then we really will have a system strong enough to provide it's own cold air and give a heavy wet snowfall to people on the northwest side. So what we need to happen in the models is for this trough to trend stronger at the base to the point where it will close off somewhere over southern Ga. The more it closes off the better. If the trough never closes off I think you can pretty much forget about it for us outside of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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