Weather Czar Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 So are you telling me you think there is a chance for significant snow at RDU? If you are, then I lose respect for you as a meteorologist in this situation. If you guys want to be babies and cry because I don't hold your hand and make out like this has a chance, then go ahead and cry. I refuse to make up phantom highs to the north, as you have done, to keep pulling people along. Outside of higher elevations, this storm does not look favorable for wintry precipitation. To say otherwise is just being irresponsible as a meteorologist. Trust me, if you don't want to hear my forecasts, I'll take them elsewhere. LOL.. You have Robert all wrong! He is the most down to earth guy on this board. His forecast have all been spot on for western NC all year! Even back in early Dec when there was a lakes cutter he called snow for us in the Mtns. Turns out he was right. I don't think any of his comments about snow have been for RDu. Mainly western Carolinas and N GA and E TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 When I see something that I feel is questionable, I have called it out. Do I, as a meteorologist, not have the right to question other meteorologists? My main purpose in posting on the board is to attempt to save people the heartache of getting their hopes up for a storm that has little opportunity to produce. In the future, how would you recommend I approach the other metoerologists differently? Just agree with what they say without question? Please ignore that poster because his post was ridiculous and if I had seen it before hand it would have been deleted. Your posts have been great, please don't let someone like that give you pause about posting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 So are you telling me you think there is a chance for significant snow at RDU? If you are, then I lose respect for you as a meteorologist in this situation. If you guys want to be babies and cry because I don't hold your hand and make out like this has a chance, then go ahead and cry. I refuse to make up phantom highs to the north, as you have done, to keep pulling people along. Outside of higher elevations, this storm does not look favorable for wintry precipitation. To say otherwise is just being irresponsible as a meteorologist. Trust me, if you don't want to hear my forecasts, I'll take them elsewhere. I defended your other post but not this one. Back off and stop making everything personal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 So are you telling me you think there is a chance for significant snow at RDU? If you are, then I lose respect for you as a meteorologist in this situation. If you guys want to be babies and cry because I don't hold your hand and make out like this has a chance, then go ahead and cry. I refuse to make up phantom highs to the north, as you have done, to keep pulling people along. Outside of higher elevations, this storm does not look favorable for wintry precipitation. To say otherwise is just being irresponsible as a meteorologist. Trust me, if you don't want to hear my forecasts, I'll take them elsewhere. You definitely have him wrong. He is the nicest guy on the board and has nailed the forecast here a number of times in spite of evidence to the contrary. BUT, it would be fine with me if he kept his focus in WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 FWIW the 18z nam is Mostly snow here. Maybe a 3 hour period of a rain/snow mix or rain and sleet. Much colder trend on this run. But it was not nearly as wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 So are you telling me you think there is a chance for significant snow at RDU? If you are, then I lose respect for you as a meteorologist in this situation. If you guys want to be babies and cry because I don't hold your hand and make out like this has a chance, then go ahead and cry. I refuse to make up phantom highs to the north, as you have done, to keep pulling people along. Outside of higher elevations, this storm does not look favorable for wintry precipitation. To say otherwise is just being irresponsible as a meteorologist. Trust me, if you don't want to hear my forecasts, I'll take them elsewhere. I was actually fine with your statements forecast etc. until this statement. You should understand as a forecaster that you use the model information as guidance not absolute truth. You are talking to someone who I watch nail the Jan 10th system for my area BEFORE THE MODELS HAD A Clue. Also nailed the Christmas storm here for my area before MODELS or local forecasters had it. I respect any person with great knowledge but if you are gonna go down that road with statements like that with someone who has proven he knows what he is talking about just as much as you may or may not then I would be happy for you to take that elsewhere. Theres a reason why more than one forecaster makes a forecast. Not everytime will you agree, but he has given his reasons as to why he believes what he may. Your arrogant attitude that he HAS to agree with your statements and not go with what he feels is pretty shocking honestly and again the disrespect that is shown in this post is pretty crazy IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 So are you telling me you think there is a chance for significant snow at RDU? If you are, then I lose respect for you as a meteorologist in this situation. If you guys want to be babies and cry because I don't hold your hand and make out like this has a chance, then go ahead and cry. I refuse to make up phantom highs to the north, as you have done, to keep pulling people along. Outside of higher elevations, this storm does not look favorable for wintry precipitation. To say otherwise is just being irresponsible as a meteorologist. Trust me, if you don't want to hear my forecasts, I'll take them elsewhere. Wow.... Robert is by far one of the best mets on here and has been dead on accurate all winter. You need to chill out a little. No need to go the DT route Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 So are you telling me you think there is a chance for significant snow at RDU? If you are, then I lose respect for you as a meteorologist in this situation. If you guys want to be babies and cry because I don't hold your hand and make out like this has a chance, then go ahead and cry. I refuse to make up phantom highs to the north, as you have done, to keep pulling people along. Outside of higher elevations, this storm does not look favorable for wintry precipitation. To say otherwise is just being irresponsible as a meteorologist. Trust me, if you don't want to hear my forecasts, I'll take them elsewhere. Now here you are over reacting. Robert is simply stating an opinion but not in a "crying" or disrespectful way. Robert is the last person on the board that would do that. Don't let that first poster make you think everyone who disagrees with you is being that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I can see why the guy (DT) had a problem. I was attacked, and I defended myself as anyone would have. I am not aware of using absolutes often in my posts, but if I do then I have the right to. Foothills had no right to attack me, I don't care if he's been posting here one day or one hundred years. Don't see where he attacked you. Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I can see why the guy (DT) had a problem. I was attacked, and I defended myself as anyone would have. I am not aware of using absolutes often in my posts, but if I do then I have the right to. Foothills had no right to attack me, I don't care if he's been posting here one day or one hundred years. I think you are taking what he said the wrong way. By the way that I read it, he didn't "attack" you. A thicker skin around here always works.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I can see why the guy (DT) had a problem. I was attacked, and I defended myself as anyone would have. I am not aware of using absolutes often in my posts, but if I do then I have the right to. Foothills had no right to attack me, I don't care if he's been posting here one day or one hundred years. Attacked?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 So are you telling me you think there is a chance for significant snow at RDU? If you are, then I lose respect for you as a meteorologist in this situation. If you guys want to be babies and cry because I don't hold your hand and make out like this has a chance, then go ahead and cry. I refuse to make up phantom highs to the north, as you have done, to keep pulling people along. Outside of higher elevations, this storm does not look favorable for wintry precipitation. To say otherwise is just being irresponsible as a meteorologist. Trust me, if you don't want to hear my forecasts, I'll take them elsewhere. "I lose respect for you as a meteorologist in this situation" I don't want to argue, I think you misunderstood the gists of my earlier posts and maybe overinflated the surface highs. I let that go a while back and focused more on the cold 5H as the supplier. "To say otherwise is just being irresponsible as a meteorologist" I won't cry and you don't have to hold my hand, everyone is entitled to their own forecast. I won't attempt to deny or discredit any other forecasts, pro's or not. "Outside of higher elevations, this storm does not look favorable for wintry precipitation" I agree basically, but I think it's worth a mention at this stage. I'm not declaring anything huge with this, but there's potential, as usually is the case with 5H systems in the Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I can see why the guy (DT) had a problem. I was attacked, and I defended myself as anyone would have. I am not aware of using absolutes often in my posts, but if I do then I have the right to. Foothills had no right to attack me, I don't care if he's been posting here one day or one hundred years. This is getting ridiculous. Good grief, He was not attacking you dude. In fact in the YEARS I have seen him here, he has NEVER attacked anyone so this claim is just absurd. If you think anyone who disagrees with you is attacking you then that is just silly and a bad way to go about living. Everyone was on your side until this. Stop being so thin skinned for crying out loud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I can see why the guy (DT) had a problem. I was attacked, and I defended myself as anyone would have. I am not aware of using absolutes often in my posts, but if I do then I have the right to. Foothills had no right to attack me, I don't care if he's been posting here one day or one hundred years. I think you are a little upset at the poster who attacked you. Not sure where Robert attacked you in his post. From reading the call map thread your thoughts are not far from his. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmcld76 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 "I lose respect for you as a meteorologist in this situation" I don't want to argue, I think you misunderstood the gists of my earlier posts and maybe overinflated the surface highs. I let that go a while back and focused more on the cold 5H as the supplier. "To say otherwise is just being irresponsible as a meteorologist" I won't cry and you don't have to hold my hand, everyone is entitled to their own forecast. I won't attempt to deny or discredit any other forecasts, pro's or not. "Outside of higher elevations, this storm does not look favorable for wintry precipitation" I agree basically, but I think it's worth a mention at this stage. I'm not declaring anything huge with this, but there's potential, as usually is the case with 5H systems in the Southeast. Bravo. I've lurked on here for a while. Recently joined. And this is my first post. Don't let an egomaniac stand in the way of giving an opinion. It's obvious he needs to bundle up big time this winter due to his thin skin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 This is getting ridiculous. Good grief, He was not attacking you dude. In fact in the YEARS I have seen him here, he has NEVER attacked anyone so this claim is just absurd. If you think anyone who disagrees with you is attacking you then that is just silly and a bad way to go about living. Everyone was on your side until this. Stop being so thin skinned for crying out loud. BPP model says this post will not have its intended effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzbyrd Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 can we please get back to the weather?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolBreeze Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I can see why the guy (DT) had a problem. I was attacked, and I defended myself as anyone would have. I am not aware of using absolutes often in my posts, but if I do then I have the right to. Foothills had no right to attack me, I don't care if he's been posting here one day or one hundred years. I've been lurking all this time, and I have to say that I think there's a good bit of "misunderstanding the tone" in some posts. It's easy to post remarks and a particular "tone" is implied, perhaps not deliberately. I wonder if you feel "attacked" because of this misinterpreted tone? Also, other here may be misinterpreting your tone early on. But the remarks you made about Foothills are wayyyy out of line. You obviously have not seen many of his posts or observed his track record in real time...they are top-notch !!! Again, I am not attacking you, just pointing out an observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I can see why the guy (DT) had a problem. I was attacked, and I defended myself as anyone would have. I am not aware of using absolutes often in my posts, but if I do then I have the right to. Foothills had no right to attack me, I don't care if he's been posting here one day or one hundred years. I did NOT attack you at all. I just said I wouldn't use the absolutes yet in this close call situation, but I also said thats my personal preference. I guess I shouldn't have said a thing, but the only reason I did that at all is b/c you kept coming up right behind me with an absolute how it won't snow in CLT GSO north GA etc, when I thought it was possible at some point. I guess we can agree to disagree,and let things just be. I just hope you don't sincerely think I was attacking you at all, b/c I didn't do that. Shake hands and truce? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 can we please get back to the weather?!? Don't worry. Models soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 James Spann out of Birmingham: Very difficult call here. Standard model guidance suggests mostly rain here with no major snow on the back side of the system, but long time observers know how wrong guidance can be with a big time ULL passing overhead. Dynamic cooling can make for some very large snow amounts. Anyone remember December 1997? Eight inches of snow along U.S. 80 from Jackson, MS to Demopolis with MOS temps forecast near 50 with all rain? The guys at HPC clearly see this possibility, and have reflected it in their forecast. I don’t like to call snow events on weekends since I am not locked into data like I am during the week… so you won’t be getting a specific forecast/accumulation potential chart from me until early, early tomorrow morning after the 00Z/06Z data sets are in, and I have more time to look at everything. This can go either way, so stay tuned… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 "I lose respect for you as a meteorologist in this situation" I don't want to argue, I think you misunderstood the gists of my earlier posts and maybe overinflated the surface highs. I let that go a while back and focused more on the cold 5H as the supplier. "To say otherwise is just being irresponsible as a meteorologist" I won't cry and you don't have to hold my hand, everyone is entitled to their own forecast. I won't attempt to deny or discredit any other forecasts, pro's or not. "Outside of higher elevations, this storm does not look favorable for wintry precipitation" I agree basically, but I think it's worth a mention at this stage. I'm not declaring anything huge with this, but there's potential, as usually is the case with 5H systems in the Southeast. You see? You go off on him in an absurd manner and he had every right to jump back all over you...but he didn't. He replied in a respectful way as usual. Doesn't that tell you something? I think you owe foothills an apology but regardless this is going to be the end of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 +1 PM the member or banter thread that ****..... can we please get back to the weather?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 This was updated at 3:13 today... TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING: TIMING DIFFERENCE AND TRACK DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE ECMWF IS STILL ON THE FAST END OF THE GUIDANCE... SPREADING PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON DELAYING THE ONSET OF PRECIP GENERALLY UNTIL AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GFS NOT BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 06Z. THIS APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO DIFFERENCES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND UPSTREAM. DESPITE ALL THE TIMING DIFFERENCES MODELS ARE IN A GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A WARMING TREND WITH REGARD TO THERMAL PROFILES. GIVEN THE WARM-AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE... SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 32 DEGREES THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z THURSDAY (NEAR THE END OF THE PRECIP). THUS... WE MAY ONLY SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AT ONSET...POSSIBLY TURNING OVER TO ALL RAIN THERE BY 12-15Z WEDNESDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS SURGE TO AT LEAST +3 DEGREES C. THUS...EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE 850 MB LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. GIVEN EXCELLENT LIFT IN THE FAVORED SNOW GROWTH REGION AND LOTS OF DYNAMICALLY COOLING AS A 540 DECAMETER 500 MB LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...THINK WE COULD SEE A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING AN AREA OF HEAVY PRECIP ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE (DEFORMATION ZONE) OF THE 700 MB LOW TRACK. AS A RESULT...WE COULD POTENTIALLY SEE SOME HEAVY SNOWFALL IF WE ARE ABLE TO COOL ENOUGH...EVEN WITH TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...FOR NOW WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED NORTHWEST PIEDMONT FOR THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY...GIVEN THE MILLER A TYPE SYSTEM...AND CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. Can anyone tell me exactly where the "deformation zone" will be sitting...or is it too soon to tell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Too soon to tell at this point. This was updated at 3:13 today... TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING: TIMING DIFFERENCE AND TRACK DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE ECMWF IS STILL ON THE FAST END OF THE GUIDANCE... SPREADING PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON DELAYING THE ONSET OF PRECIP GENERALLY UNTIL AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GFS NOT BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 06Z. THIS APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO DIFFERENCES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND UPSTREAM. DESPITE ALL THE TIMING DIFFERENCES MODELS ARE IN A GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A WARMING TREND WITH REGARD TO THERMAL PROFILES. GIVEN THE WARM-AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE... SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 32 DEGREES THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z THURSDAY (NEAR THE END OF THE PRECIP). THUS... WE MAY ONLY SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AT ONSET...POSSIBLY TURNING OVER TO ALL RAIN THERE BY 12-15Z WEDNESDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS SURGE TO AT LEAST +3 DEGREES C. THUS...EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE 850 MB LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. GIVEN EXCELLENT LIFT IN THE FAVORED SNOW GROWTH REGION AND LOTS OF DYNAMICALLY COOLING AS A 540 DECAMETER 500 MB LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...THINK WE COULD SEE A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING AN AREA OF HEAVY PRECIP ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE (DEFORMATION ZONE) OF THE 700 MB LOW TRACK. AS A RESULT...WE COULD POTENTIALLY SEE SOME HEAVY SNOWFALL IF WE ARE ABLE TO COOL ENOUGH...EVEN WITH TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...FOR NOW WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED NORTHWEST PIEDMONT FOR THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY...GIVEN THE MILLER A TYPE SYSTEM...AND CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. Can anyone tell me exactly where the "deformation zone" will be sitting...or is it too soon to tell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tpsteffe Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Can anyone tell me exactly where the "deformation zone" will be sitting...or is it too soon to tell? This is one of those mesoscale features that will be very hard to pinpoint until it is actually happening and is dependent on the exact track of the upper level features. Nowcasting (RUC, radar, etc.) will be the name of the game when trying to determine where the deformation band will orient itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 You guys are right, I'm just a big jerk. You might want to think about how you treat a new poster next time, because you just lost one. Consider this my last post. Widremann, you can stop messing around now and change your username back to what it was. Seriously though, FoothillsNC was NOT bashing you dude. I thought your posts were great until you called him a crybaby. No reason to get upset and leave the forum for good because of one little incident. Jet let it go and move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 +1 PM the member or banter thread that ****..... Have you checked your soundings off the nam yet? You should I was really surprised how thin the warm layer was. A tree breaking widespread heavy wet snow might be coming to the southern apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I can see why the guy (DT) had a problem. I was attacked, and I defended myself as anyone would have. I am not aware of using absolutes often in my posts, but if I do then I have the right to. Foothills had no right to attack me, I don't care if he's been posting here one day or one hundred years. Sometimes it's difficult to interpret someone's intent when sitting behind a computer screen. Foothillls is a class act. I also appreciate your informative response to a question I posed earlier. Another poster(not Foothills) criticized your response to my question. I had no problem w/ your answer and learned much from it, appreciated it actually. I'm not going to give you advice, because you have to make up your own mind. But this is a great forum, I think you'll like it over time. Most of the time when something like this happens we all forget about it and move on. Anyway, my gift is not peacemaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Birmingham NWS saying it could be all rain or several inches of snow.... FXUS64 KBMX 232112AFDBMX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 312 PM CST SUN JAN 23 2011 .DISCUSSION... THE GULF LOW SYSTEM MON THRU WED CONTINUES TO BE THE ONLY SYSTEM OF INTEREST OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS SO LET`S GET RIGHT TO IT. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SET UP REMAINS THE SAME AS EACH FORECAST MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW A DIGGING UPPER TROF AND A DEVELOPING GULF LOW. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS APPEAR PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH MORE OF A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR THE PERIOD MON THRU WED. THE SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN THE NW GULF ON MON AND THEN SLIDES ENE INTO S GA BY WED MRNG. PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS MON EVENING IN THE WEST AND THE OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA ON TUE. LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIP THRU TUE AFTN. THE REALLY TRICKY PART COMES TUE EVNG INTO WED MRNG. AT FIRST GLANCE THIS LOOKS LIKE A CLASSIC SNOW SET UP FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL ALABAMA...AS FAR AS THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THE SFC LOW...BUT THINGS JUST AREN`T ADDING UP TO MUCH SNOW JUST YET. HOWEVER THIS COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH EVEN THE SLIGHTEST BIT OF CHANGE IN SFC TEMPS AND/OR THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW. AFTER LOOKING AT THE 12Z GFS...WE HAVE VERY LITTLE ROOM FOR ERROR WHEN IT COMES TO GETTING ALL RAIN OR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. THE GFS IS SPITTING OUT LARGE AMOUNTS OF QPF AND FAIRLY HIGH PRECIP RATES TUE NIGHT INTO WED MRNG. THESE HIGH RATES ARE MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROWAL AND PRETTY DECENT FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THE QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THESE PRECIP RATES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR DYNAMIC COOLING TO BRING COOLER TEMPS DOWN TO THE SFC. GFS PROFILE TEMPS AT THE SFC (AND UP TO AROUND 850 MB) ARE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE UP TO 300 MB. THEREFORE ALL IT WILL TAKE IS COOLING THE SFC TEMPS DOWN BY A DEGREE OR TWO FOR US TO SEE RAIN SWITCH OVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE CWA. IF YOU TAKE THE GFS SOUNDING AT 12Z WED FOR ANYWHERE IN NORTH CENTRAL AL AND COOL THE LOWEST LEVELS BY LET`S SAY 2 DEGREES THEN YOU COULD HAVE SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE GFS BUT EVEN IT IS STILL QUESTIONABLE. FOR NOW...FEEL MOST COMFORTABLE LEAVING RAIN OR SNOW WORDING IN FOR THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA TUE NIGHT/WED MRNG...WITH ALL RAIN TO THE SOUTH AS TEMPS ARE JUST TOO WARM THERE. WILL WAIT AND SEE IF MODELS TREND SFC TEMPS COOLER...IF THAT HAPPENS THEN WILL HAVE TO MAKE SOME MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WX GRIDS AND INTRODUCE SOME SNOW AMOUNTS. MOISTURE EXITS THE AREA BY WED AFTN AS THE SFC LOW SLIDES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...THUS ENDING PRECIP CHANCES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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