Carvers Gap Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 You can never just look at 850 temps and declare rain or snow. That is one sliver of the column the precipitation has to fall through. In this scenario, most of the models have shown the most warming below this level, so even if 850s are below freezing, it is still likely above freezing below this layer, and if it is 2 or 3C it is going to be very tough to melt that out. 1000-850mb partial thicknesses are a much better tool to look at in this situation, because they depict the layer-average temperature from 1000 to 850mb. If the thickness is 1300m or below, then the layer-avg temp is below 32F, and theoretically supportive of snow in the lower level, which is mainly what is in question here. You can also look at the 850-700mb thickness, but in this instance the mid-levels are not of as much concern. Very much appreciated. I pulled up the maps w/ the 1000-850mb thicknesses. First let me say, the interval is 40m on the maps I'm looking at. There is a 1280m line and a 1320m line. The account won't let me adjust any differently, i.e. I really need to see the 1300m line. It looks close for central and ne TN. But w/ no way to see that line, I can't say for sure. Learned a ton. Googled the term and found a great article from nonother than Wes Junker, or at least the photo on the cover is his. I'll attach the link for others to see - I know you don't need it. Thanks again. http://www.hpc.ncep....owfcst/snow.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 That is just great..... Saw this posted on another forum. http://wsbradio.com/...her_commentary/ Here's the official message. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 From RAH: GREATEST OVERALL IMPACT IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST COMES LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AS THE UPPER JET SHIFTS SOUTH AND ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST IN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS FORECAST INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERNIGHT MONDAY ON THE 295K SURFACE AS 850MB THETA-E INCREASES MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL CAROLINA. LIFT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL PLAIN AND EAST... ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND SLIGHTLY FARTHER INLAND. DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS WEAK ON BOTH MODELS...AND MID-LEVEL MOISTENING IS ON THE MARGINS...WITH THE BUFKIT FORECASTS OF THE VERTICAL PROFILE OF LIFT NOT MAKING IT INTO THE GOOD PRECIPITATION GROWTH ZONE LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE GUIDANCE TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD AT LEAST A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR EAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT... WHICH SHOULD BE AT AND AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...AND AS A RESULT OF THE MOISTENING AND AVAILABLE LIFT...WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE INTO THE FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE FAR EAST. PROBLEM THEN BECOMES PRECIPITATION TYPE. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN MOST PLACES SHOULD BE AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING...WITH A SLOW TREND UP AFTER MIDNIGHT. THICKNESSES AND WET BULB ZERO TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST ALL RAIN AS MOISTENING OCCURS...BUT EVEN THE WARMEST GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWS JUST BELOW FREEZING. WHILE ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW HUNDREDTHS LIQUID...SOME OF IT COULD BE FREEZING TO START. INTERESTS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECASTS. CURRENTLY...PROBABLY THE LEAST CHANCE OF NON-LIQUID WOULD BE IN SOUTHERN SAMPSON COUNTY... WITH BETTER CHANCES IN A RELATIVE SENSE TOWARD WILSON AND TARBORO. TOWARD THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S UNDER SKIES THAT SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY ON AVERAGE.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion --AS OF 310 PM SUNDAY... TUESDAY: IF ANY PRECIP DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY MORNING... ALL SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO LIQUID IN THE FAR EAST BY AROUND 12 TO 13Z. OTHERWISE... WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW END CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOW DOWN WITH REGARD TO THE MAIN STORM TRACK LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOW EXPECTED TO BE WELL OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY AND ONLY A PIECE OF THE HIGH REMAINING OVER OUR AREA...STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW A NICE WARM UP IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IN FACT BOTH THE MAV AND THE MET HAVE HIGH TEMPS AROUND 50 FOR KGSO TUESDAY. THUS... GIVEN THIS AND THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE PRECIP WILL RAISE AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. THIS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST. TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING: TIMING DIFFERENCE AND TRACK DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE ECMWF IS STILL ON THE FAST END OF THE GUIDANCE... SPREADING PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON DELAYING THE ONSET OF PRECIP GENERALLY UNTIL AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GFS NOT BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 06Z. THIS APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO DIFFERENCES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND UPSTREAM. DESPITE ALL THE TIMING DIFFERENCES MODELS ARE IN A GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A WARMING TREND WITH REGARD TO THERMAL PROFILES. GIVEN THE WARM-AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE... SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 32 DEGREES THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z THURSDAY (NEAR THE END OF THE PRECIP). THUS... WE MAY ONLY SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AT ONSET...POSSIBLY TURNING OVER TO ALL RAIN THERE BY 12-15Z WEDNESDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS SURGE TO AT LEAST +3 DEGREES C. THUS...EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE 850 MB LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. GIVEN EXCELLENT LIFT IN THE FAVORED SNOW GROWTH REGION AND LOTS OF DYNAMICALLY COOLING AS A 540 DECAMETER 500 MB LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...THINK WE COULD SEE A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING AN AREA OF HEAVY PRECIP ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE (DEFORMATION ZONE) OF THE 700 MB LOW TRACK. AS A RESULT...WE COULD POTENTIALLY SEE SOME HEAVY SNOWFALL IF WE ARE ABLE TO COOL ENOUGH...EVEN WITH TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...FOR NOW WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED NORTHWEST PIEDMONT FOR THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY...GIVEN THE MILLER A TYPE SYSTEM...AND CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW TEMPS WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 33 NW TO 40 SE...WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY 35 NW TO 50 SE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT: DEEP UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENDING ANY CONTINUED THREAT FOR PRECIP. AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WE WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES...WITH BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS USHERING IN DRIER AND COLDER AIR. LOWS ON THURSDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I argued with the same poster last night over what the Euro showed. He/she is an accuweather transplant so there's probably no hope. Wow, that's harsh. I was pointing out how little snow the GFS shows at that run and was confused to how people are saying we are going to get 6+ inches of snow. And I provided factual statements and provided sources at accuweather. Isn't science all about testing the hypothesis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 It seems strange for me to be on the pessimistic side and you on the optimistic one lol. But I just don't see it, although I have said that northwest ga might have a better chance than anywhere else (not counting mountains). I would be utterly shocked if a changeover got down to atlanta, much less any accumulation, but I have said also that those under the most intense area of the deformation axis could briefly switch to snow for a few hours but it's going to be very localized if it happens. However, The euro to me does not look impressive for north ga in general for this to happen since it doesn't appear as intense as some of the runs of the gfs/nam. It only drops 0.25 at best after 850s go barely below freezing. I doubt that cuts it. What will be important to watch imho, is how soon and strong that deformation axis is to the west before it gets here. If it's intense enough, it could bring along it's own pocket of cold air and this pocket of cold air could be enhanced as the comma head intensifies. It's going to have to be really impressive though since boundary layer temps are so warm. If we were talking about boundary layer temps of 33 or 34, I would be much more bullish but models showing temps in the upper 30s/near 40 not only at the surface but up to 900 to 950mb. That is high and deep enough to make me believe it's unlikely for most. It really would take a lot to overcome that. It's not unheard of though. I've seen some systems in the plains do this as I normally follow such events. A number of times I've seen locations be near 40 and rain one hour and the next hour they are 34 and heavy snow. This happens a lot in the spring time especially but normally the lowest 1500 feet is normally colder than what is being advertised here. It's not a given yet the deformation axis/comma head will organize itself enough or even track over north Ga in a fashion that would favor such a scenario. We'll see I guess and I would love to be wrong and you be right. But remember this, when it comes to the southeast if it's not obviously apparent and you have to hunt for ways for it to snow, normally it doesn't work out. I saw DT say this 10 years ago and boy has it been right most of the time. I was just commenting of if the Op Euro verified the comma would be far enough south for at least a chance in the northern sections of Atlanta. But the new Euro ensembles have the upper low farther north which would remove all doubt and unfortunately I agree that the odds greatly favor all rain in ATL, I just am holding out a faint hope that the upper low somehow does take a southern track but that seems like a big longshot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Surface low seems to be staying pretty far south on this run of the NAM. Still in the GOM at hour 54 several hundred miles south of Panama City. Precip stretching to NC/SC border but 850s up to NC/VA border. Interesting as the precip would be coming into NC overnight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trambo Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Wow, that's harsh. I was pointing out how little snow the GFS shows at that run and was confused to how people are saying we are going to get 6+ inches of snow. And I provided factual statements and provided sources at accuweather. Isn't science all about testing the hypothesis? I don't post often because I enjoy sitting back and learning, but I can say, that yesterday, last night, this early morning, you were very belligerent in your posts and seemed to be a genuine PITA. (that's pain in the a$ for the folks that are challenged). There were no moderators around and I feel that you took advantage of that. Prove me wrong, and I'll apologize to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Surface low seems to be staying pretty far south on this run of the NAM. Still in the GOM at hour 54 several hundred miles south of Panama City. Precip stretching to NC/SC border but 850s up to NC/VA border. Interesting as the precip would be coming into NC overnight... Yeah NAM at 60, still positive compared to 12z NAM, this should be east of the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
polarexpress00 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 You can never just look at 850 temps and declare rain or snow. That is one sliver of the column the precipitation has to fall through. In this scenario, most of the models have shown the most warming below this level, so even if 850s are below freezing, it is still likely above freezing below this layer, and if it is 2 or 3C it is going to be very tough to melt that out. 1000-850mb partial thicknesses are a much better tool to look at in this situation, because they depict the layer-average temperature from 1000 to 850mb. If the thickness is 1300m or below, then the layer-avg temp is below 32F, and theoretically supportive of snow in the lower level, which is mainly what is in question here. You can also look at the 850-700mb thickness, but in this instance the mid-levels are not of as much concern. bnmdjm you sure have a way of correcting people. About 90% of your post I've read have been ones that are negating a post another person has made. About 50% of those post you are negating are from other mets on the board. The way it comes across to me when reading your post is one of arrogance to a degree. I am sure you are a very knowledgeable met. but others are too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 18z NAM looks very suppressed. Does not look like it has much support from the European models. After reading that earlier message about some data issues, are this afternoon's runs even reliable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 bnmdjm you sure have a way of correcting people. About 90% of your post I've read have been ones that are negating a post another person has made. About 50% of those post you are negating are from other mets on the board. The way it comes across to me when reading your post is one of arrogance to a degree. I am sure you are a very knowledgeable met. but others are too. But is he wrong in what is he is posting? Sucks to hope for snow only for someone knowledgeable to snap you back to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Was just thinking the same thing, Well suppressed... 18z NAM looks very suppressed. Does not look like it has much support from the European models. After reading that earlier message about some data issues, are this afternoon's runs even reliable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 bnmdjm you sure have a way of correcting people. About 90% of your post I've read have been ones that are negating a post another person has made. About 50% of those post you are negating are from other mets on the board. The way it comes across to me when reading your post is one of arrogance to a degree. I am sure you are a very knowledgeable met. but others are too. If he was arguing for more snow, would you feel this way? He is just strongly stating his opinion. I don't get all of the crap that has broke out on this board as of late. It's a shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Well, the NAM had a solution. For one run. Nice to see the continuity continue..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 bnmdjm you sure have a way of correcting people. About 90% of your post I've read have been ones that are negating a post another person has made. About 50% of those post you are negating are from other mets on the board. The way it comes across to me when reading your post is one of arrogance to a degree. I am sure you are a very knowledgeable met. but others are too. with this as your 2nd post, your 1st must have been a doozy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 18z NAM looks very suppressed. Does not look like it has much support from the European models. After reading that earlier message about some data issues, are this afternoon's runs even reliable? Agree, this run looks odd. Can probably toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I just got home and caught up on the the models and the storm. I just cannot understand why some here are saying no snow no matter what, and then you have some that really think we are going to see a 12+ inches from Raleigh on west because the WC says so. I don't believe you can disallow the fact it can snow and might snow from Raleigh west , because it is a fact that there is some cold air around some where and cold enough to snow in Northern AL, NW GA, and Tenn. So where does it come from the only realistic cause is the storm (H5) itself . Not from a high anchored from the North its gone, out of here. In the early 90's I think it was 93 or 94 here in Surry County we had a storm that produced a 8+ inch snow storm. It was a rain snow mix all day then around 3 pm it changed to all snow and it poured the snow and stuck to everything. This was during NOV. so it was not prime time for winter weather in these parts and it had been pretty warm the day before, as well as the day after. I also do not think it going to snow a foot plus from Raleigh on west. The storm is leaving to fast as the cold arrives. But, these storms have a mind of there own. I was in Boone during that 98 or 97 snowstorm (it's been awhile). I can tell you for a fact no one was expecting 3 feet of snow 2 days before that storm. I remember people walking around in shorts and it being in the 60's a day or 2 before. I was taking some MET classes (DR. Paul Soule) , thinking to myself there is no way it's going to snow. Well around noon it started and like I have said before it looked like 3x5 index cards falling from the sky. That is the type of storm we are looking @ not one that will be modeled correctly probably not until 24 hrs. or less. I hope in the next 24hrs. we can at least get the models to determine within a 150 miles where it might go, then we can get into the cold versus no cold producing storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 18z NAM looks very suppressed. Does not look like it has much support from the European models. After reading that earlier message about some data issues, are this afternoon's runs even reliable? That's what I was thinking, completely different run than anything else. Hardly any precip west of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I assume he was commenting on the style in which the person used more so than it being right or wrong. imo Anyway, this is a banter thread issue folks... But is he wrong in what is he is posting? Sucks to hope for snow only for someone knowledgeable to snap you back to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Barely any rain up here. I bet the 6z NAM will due away with this storm completely... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 NWS still calling for a mix for here........... .TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. .TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. NOT AS COOL WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS... BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT. .WEDNESDAY...RAIN IN THE MORNING. SNOW. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW IN THE EVENING. COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 bnmdjm you sure have a way of correcting people. About 90% of your post I've read have been ones that are negating a post another person has made. About 50% of those post you are negating are from other mets on the board. The way it comes across to me when reading your post is one of arrogance to a degree. I am sure you are a very knowledgeable met. but others are too. That was not a negative post. It was in response to a question I had. Didn't see it that way one bit. It was actually informative. Bnmdjm just gets to the point. I have no problem w/ that. I actually get frustrated more when folks don't say what needs to be said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The 18z NAM just crawls along the NC coast for 9-12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I think this run is bad off. NE folks aren't going to like this run either, LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I think this run is bad off. NE folks aren't going to like this run either, LOL This run sucks all around, I was kind of hoping for a really amped up storm that runs right over RDU with torrential rain and wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 This is a classic quote that should be entrained in everyone's mind! When you are trying to get the models to trend colder, it is always an uphill battle here - especially inside of 72 hours. normally that philosphy works most years, but for whatever reason its not so hot this year. Take the storm 2 weeks ago. Atlanta and north GA was supposed to switch over to ZR much earlier than they actually did. They held on to snow much longer than anyone thought, other than the RUC model. Same held true here and the Upstate. It could be that it was a little colder than the globals initialized, or maybe a localized thing around the southeast side of the Apps, where a Southeast flow WAA enhances cooling somewhat. You keep using words like "never" "always" and "no chance" even in marginal situations, who knows it may be right, but I'd sort of be scared to use complete declaratives just yet. I've seen many models "leadeth astray" and the soundings too, this Winter, and especially last winter, in storms both pro and con in the Wintry precip dept...so IMO, they're not gospel. But everyone has their own forecasting techniques. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Outstanding write-up... [/url] AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 332 PM EST SUN JAN 23 2011 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING REMAINS ALONG AND EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES INTO MONDAY MORNING. UPPER TROUGH DIGS SE INTO TX BY TUE MORNING. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT SETS UP WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS SOLUTIONS DIVERGE TUESDAY AS UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MS RVR VLY TUE. INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS NE THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE TN RVR VLY. DEFORMATION ZONE TAKES SHAPE NEAR SOUTHERN MRX CWA. OVERALL MODEL SOLUTIONS COMING IN SLOWER FOR TUESDAY. TUE FORECAST TRIMMED TO BE DRIER AND A BIT WARMER EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN TO CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY TUE AFTN. EXCEPTION BEING THE VERY HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SMOKIES WHERE PCPN MAY STAY ALL SNOW. .LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. KEPT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST LIFT ARRIVES. BASED ON TEMPERATURES...RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW ON TUESDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...COULD SEE SNOW ACCUMULATING ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT LOW SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA. UPPER TROUGH ENTERING THE REGION THURSDAY SO WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY. UPPER LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTH WITH SOME MOISTURE LINGERING...WILL ADD LOW CHANCES FOR SATURDAY. A FRONT FOLLOWS ON SUNDAY SO WILL ADD LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY. MEX GUIDANCE GENERALLY ON THE HIGH SIDE...STAYED NEAR HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 normally that philosphy works most years, but for whatever reason its not so hot this year. Take the storm 2 weeks ago. Atlanta and north GA was supposed to switch over to ZR much earlier than they actually did. They held on to snow much longer than anyone thought, other than the RUC model. Same held true here and the Upstate. It could be that it was a little colder than the globals initialized, or maybe a localized thing around the southeast side of the Apps, where a Southeast flow WAA enhances cooling somewhat. You keep using words like "never" "always" and "no chance" even in marginal situations, who knows it may be right, but I'd sort of be scared to use complete declaratives just yet. I've seen many models "leadeth astray" and the soundings too, this Winter, and especially last winter, in storms both pro and con in the Wintry precip dept...so IMO, they're not gospel. But everyone has their own forecasting techniques. Very elloquantly said....Models still don't have a clue...so why should any of us? LOL!! Models for this storm = I'm sorry...the number you are trying to reach has been disconnected...please ck the number and try again later. We keep hoping for a reasonable concensus...and yet...none....Guess we can try again tomorrow... HPC yesterday said "forecasting these gulf lows has been anything but easy." Wonder how they feel today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 So are you telling me you think there is a chance for significant snow at RDU? If you are, then I lose respect for you as a meteorologist in this situation. If you guys want to be babies and cry because I don't hold your hand and make out like this has a chance, then go ahead and cry. I refuse to make up phantom highs to the north, as you have done, to keep pulling people along. Outside of higher elevations, this storm does not look favorable for wintry precipitation. To say otherwise is just being irresponsible as a meteorologist. Trust me, if you don't want to hear my forecasts, I'll take them elsewhere. Wait, DT, is that you??? Man. Don't pack up and leave like that. Just agree to disagree. Robert has a right to his opinion and you yours. Leave it at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 bnmdjm you sure have a way of correcting people. About 90% of your post I've read have been ones that are negating a post another person has made. About 50% of those post you are negating are from other mets on the board. The way it comes across to me when reading your post is one of arrogance to a degree. I am sure you are a very knowledgeable met. but others are too. I see nothing wrong at all with his post. He stated his reasons and then offered an alternative. At no time was there anything personal or objectionable in in his words or tone. In short it was a good informative post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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