strongwxnc Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Funny, I was thinking the same thing about my location to far east. I feel like my area will be just too far east for this one, but for everyone else just to my west I hope your right. I also gotta wonder if the Euro is doing it's usual 2 day hiccup and doesn't starting going back to a more amplified solution 00z tonight and 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 when the 5H comes over you midday Wednesday, you'll know it. But right now its 72 hours out and too tough to call for sure. Be alert that it can change to wet snow even in CLT with this 5h closed upper low. Its really a perfect track, once the coastal gets out of the way. Temps as usual are going to be close, but some areas will see a sig. snow I think not far from you. Robert, Everyone is paying so much attention to the track of this storm and to the sounding output, etc. However, we need to also see what is going on up north with HP orientation. Have you had a chance to look at that and see if this could help out in anyway. i have seen some frames of the NAM and GFS that hints at CAD again, Your thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Euro showing possible one-two punch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The Euro has been hinting at another cutoff developing near Louisiana later Thursday into Friday. Its still doing that. Shows snow in Ala, Ga and the western Carolinas by Friday morning. More headaches coming up! Maybe this one will have some cold air to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Holy smokes at the Euro at 126 and the PNA out west. Its driving an arctic front due south through the norhtern Plains, and the system in the Southeast could sharpen up more and be a bigger deal than shown, for somebody. Right now I'd say the coastal sections would have more of a chance but boundary conditions may be too warm, but thats far enough away to watch later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Good grief at 138 area of LP (1012) probably 100 miles of the NC coast, cold enough for snow, light moisture back into the Carolina's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The closed 5H system strengthens rapidly and tightens up as it goes from northern Georgia to northern SC during the day on Wednesday, with cold air in its northwest side, I'd think that argues for a nice comma head of heavy snow in N. Ga , western NC, far Upstate to the piedmont of NC, if the precip is hard enough and dynamic cooling occurs, which is likely in my opinion. The heights go from 546 to 539 en route to CLT , just like the March 2009 storm. Foothills, I agree. After looking at the Canadian(which has a perfect slp comma head) and Euro(which I am depending on pbp), I think climo would argue that this storm will be colder...and the high pressure in the plains for west of the Apps argues for cold as well. For NE TN, I don't know. Downslope can sometimes warm the atmosphere and do funny things here. That said, these are types of storms that pull surprise after surprise in the northern TN Valley. I have seen snow predicted and it rains because the warm nose hits and holds. I have seen rain predicted w/ snow piling up due to the slp pulling in colder air. I am very big on looking at the track(which many have said is only half the battle w/ the temp profile being the other) of slp's. Per some of today's model runs it looks to me that Chattanooga, even through the Tri-Cities into SW Virginia, could get some pretty big amounts w/ this storm if the track remains as it is. Lots of qpf(which will vary from run-to-run) should be w/ a track like that. It's almost like the models know a wrapped up storm is coming, but are having a difficult time w/ the temperature profile - rightfully so w/ the high pressure sliding off the East coast. BTW, thanks for your thoughts. Also, do you have a blog update forthcoming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Robert, Everyone is paying so much attention to the track of this storm and to the sounding output, etc. However, we need to also see what is going on up north with HP orientation. Have you had a chance to look at that and see if this could help out in anyway. i have seen some frames of the NAM and GFS that hints at CAD again, Your thoughts? if theres any HP to the north its pretty weak, and the cold will come from the low heights aloft with the closed low overhead. That is forecast to be crossing us Wednesday, the surface temps could be mid to upper 30's maybe even 40, but I doubt that high with precip before hand, probabl 35 to 38 for the most part during the rains Wed. am where you are, but once the ULL goes over, if it has a good solid band of RH and good VV, then you'd probably see rain switch to snow. However, it still may not accumulate, it all depends on rates. The time of day is bad for us, but to offset that is the fact its strengthening rapidly, on all models. Its still 3 days out to fine tune it. Dont rule anything out yet., and don't bank on anything either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 12z Euro I think it's a lot of rain and maybe some snow mix in and the end of the precip ? I don't know how to read all this when it's close. WED 00Z 26-JAN 1.5 0.6 1017 88 99 0.04 559 545 WED 06Z 26-JAN 0.9 2.3 1011 99 97 0.23 557 548 WED 12Z 26-JAN 0.8 2.7 1005 98 89 0.30 550 547 WED 18Z 26-JAN 1.8 -0.7 1000 96 92 0.22 542 542 THU 00Z 27-JAN 1.6 -2.0 1005 82 74 0.10 546 542 Can somebody help a brotha out, Tell what it says. lol yep, you can borrow my boat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 With all the model data with the upcoming storm, the GFS is the warmest. What has happened to it's cold bias? I'm not talking of long range here, it's probably still there but, it WAS also in the short range as well. Where you @ Larry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 yep, you can borrow my boat I meant somebody that can understand it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Good grief at 138 area of LP (1012) probably 100 miles of the NC coast, cold enough for snow, light moisture back into the Carolina's. See, Mother Nature is kind to us. Takes one away, but throws us a nice mirage to look at to soften our disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 ote name='BIG FROSTY' timestamp='1295807584' post='344221'] I meant somebody that can understand it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 12z Euro I think it's a lot of rain and maybe some snow mix in and the end of the precip ? I don't know how to read all this when it's close. WED 00Z 26-JAN 1.5 0.6 1017 88 99 0.04 559 545 WED 06Z 26-JAN 0.9 2.3 1011 99 97 0.23 557 548 WED 12Z 26-JAN 0.8 2.7 1005 98 89 0.30 550 547 WED 18Z 26-JAN 1.8 -0.7 1000 96 92 0.22 542 542 THU 00Z 27-JAN 1.6 -2.0 1005 82 74 0.10 546 542 Can somebody help a brotha out, Tell what it says. lol 0.1" plus or minus a couple hundredths as SN, maybe, but the 1000-500mb thickness is a little high, 700mb RH saturation after 18z Wed does not look so hot, would like to see that in the >90% range for good crystal growth, and surface temps never go below freezing, although that can be a crock sometimes, Coastal yesterday for example as no model had the coast in the 20's for the event, most did not even have them subfreezing till around 7pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 0.1" plus or minus a couple hundredths as SN, maybe, but the 1000-500mb thickness is a little high, 700mb RH saturation after 18z Wed does not look so hot, would like to see that in the >90% range for good crystal growth, and surface temps never go below freezing, although that can be a crock sometimes, Coastal yesterday for example as no model had the coast in the 20's for the event, most did not even have them subfreezing till around 7pm. Thank you, Sir ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Holy smokes at the Euro at 126 and the PNA out west. Its driving an arctic front due south through the norhtern Plains, and the system in the Southeast could sharpen up more and be a bigger deal than shown, for somebody. Right now I'd say the coastal sections would have more of a chance but boundary conditions may be too warm, but thats far enough away to watch later. Yeah it's had this for several runs in a row and it's raised my interest. It actually drops over a tenth liquid over mainly georgia. Only issue is surface temps but we do start the morning off in the (presumptively) low to mid 30s with precip underway. Moisture seems to be limited with this feature and the gfs doesn't have it but something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Im my county alone. This is the zone for Lake Lure area (NW of Rutherford County) Tuesday: Snow likely, mainly after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Tuesday Night: Snow. Low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Wednesday: Snow likely before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Now, my area (Bostic --sort of eastern side of the county) Tuesday: A chance of snow and sleet before noon, then rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41. Light northeast wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Tuesday Night: Rain. Low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Wednesday: Rain likely before noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 60%. About 20 miles (crow files) to the Lake form my house.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yeah it's had this for several runs in a row and it's raised my interest. It actually drops over a tenth liquid over mainly georgia. Only issue is surface temps but we do start the morning off in the (presumptively) low to mid 30s with precip underway. Moisture seems to be limited with this feature and the gfs doesn't have it but something to watch. Well this run is just full of fun. It has the big arctic outbreak, this next Tue/Wed question mark storm, then the Friday possibility, and last but not least, the day 9 and 10 Southeast Monster. Its a doozy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Another threat at 240 on the Euro.. it's still a generally favorable pattern folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Well this run is just full of fun. It has the big arctic outbreak, this next Tue/Wed question mark storm, then the Friday possibility, and last but not least, the day 9 and 10 Southeast Monster. Its a doozy! It's a long ways away but I'm starting to actually get enthused about it which I never do with storms being shown that far away. This is because it's been shown on both models for several runs and with plentiful cold air around, this one would likely be fun. 850s are -8 to -12 across nc right before the system and there is a high over the mid atlantic!This run has several inches of snow turning to sleet and/or freezing rain for ga and the carolinas with temps in the 20s. It also has quite a bit of snow for most of tennessee, especially eastern half. Taken literally it's a big winter storm for everyone north of i-20. Normally things at this range are for entertainment purposes only but I like what I see and it's hard to ignore the consistency in showing a big arctic outbreak with yet another gulf low coming along. Of course it could be just a fantasy storm but keep your fingers and toes crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Another threat at 240 on the Euro.. it's still a generally favorable pattern folks The 240 hour EURO is the new 384 hour GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Another threat at 240 on the Euro.. it's still a generally favorable pattern folks Interesting- all of this is being driven by an incredibly favorable Pacific ridge position with only minimal help in the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Kudos to Foothills who has been consistent with this idea. Foothills, you won't have to tear your degree up. And for those that yelled about nothing but rain for these areas.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Does not appear that winter will go quietly per the Euro. When is the last time that the southeast has had wall-to-wall cold(term used loosely but not so much this year) from December through February in back-to-back years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Interesting- all of this is being driven by an incredibly favorable Pacific ridge position with only minimal help in the Atlantic. Indeed. Not long ago it was the opposite! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 It's a long ways away but I'm starting to actually get enthused about it which I never do with storms being shown that far away. This is because it's been shown on both models for several runs and with plentiful cold air around, this one would likely be fun. 850s are -8 to -12 across nc right before the system and there is a high over the mid atlantic!This run has several inches of snow turning to sleet and/or freezing rain for ga and the carolinas with temps in the 20s. It also has quite a bit of snow for most of tennessee, especially eastern half. Taken literally it's a big winter storm for everyone north of i-20. Normally things at this range are for entertainment purposes only but I like what I see and it's hard to ignore the consistency in showing a big arctic outbreak with yet another gulf low coming along. Of course it could be just a fantasy storm but keep your fingers and toes crossed. yeah its just for entertainment. The one thing I'm interested in to see if it verifies is the big PNA out west. We've yet to really get one of those, and the models have tried and tried, but it just hasn't happened, so we'll see. The same thing actually happened with the late November -NAO, but eventually it did indeed happen. So it if does happen, obviously this Winter will be a cold one. Its already Jan 23 and we can safely see the next 10 days to 2 weeks with no above average temps around the Southeast. And probably if you infer more you can go out to 3 weeks as being likely colder than average, which would take us into mid Feb. That only leaves 2 weeks of Meteorological Winter , so even if it did warm to above average, we've got probably a solid 10 out of 12 weeks at below normal temps I think. Thats pretty astounding when you think of it. We lose the neg NAO and gain the PNA, its completely perfect timing, if you're a cold lover. So in essence , for some areas of the Southeast we could already be a top 5 cold/snowy Winter, and if we get anything else to happen (generally speaking), this could translate to a top 2 (or even 1?) for some areas of the Southeast, if you combine the cold +snow in some sort of hierarchical ranking system...which I don't know if they do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 No chance for Tri-cities?!?!?!? Like the song says, "Come on weatherman, give me a forecast snowy white"....I know, its past Christmas, but the sentiment still applies! Kudos to Foothills who has been consistent with this idea. Foothills, you won't have to tear your degree up. And for those that yelled about nothing but rain for these areas.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 From HPC this afternoon. I'll second that.. GUIDANCE OFFERS A COMPLICATED SHORT RANGE MESS INTO MIDWEEK WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FORECAST SPREAD WITH POTENTIAL SRN STREAM STORM DEVELOPMENT AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY PCPN POTENTIAL OUT FROM THE SERN US AND UP/OFF THE EAST COAST INTO THU. UNCERTAINTY WITH UPSTREAM KICKER ENERGY...CONVECTIVE FOCUS...AND NRN STREAM INTERACTION HAS LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT TIMING AND SUPPRESSION ISSUES WITH THE STORM. THE OO UTC ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 00 UTC GFS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A DEEPENING LOW TRACK MORE ON THE WESTWARD PORTION OF THE ENTIRE SOLUTION ENVELOPE IN STARK CONTRAST TO THE MORE SUPPRESSED 00 UTC NOGAPS AND 06 UTC GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAM/DGEX AND ESPECIALLY 06 UTC GFS THAT WAS LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH BOTH SRN STREAM KICKER ENERGY AND LEAD LOW DEVELOPMENT. THIS ALLOWS NRN STREAM FLOW TO BE MORE DOMINANT LEADING TO A FARTHER OFFSHORE TRACK OF THE STORM. THE 12 UTC GFS HAS BACKED OFF FROM THIS. ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN UNCHARACTERISTICALLY PROGRESSIVE THAN GFS ENSEMBLES ALOFT WITH ENERGIES MOVING INTO AND OUT FROM THE MEAN EAST-CENTRAL US TROUGH POSITION ALOFT CONSIDERING THE AMPLITUDE OF MEAN RIDGING CENETERED OVER WRN NORTH AMERICA. 00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN YESTERDAYS 12 UTC RUNS...BUT REMAIN ON THE PROGRESSIVE SIDE OF THE ENTIRE SOLUTION ENVELOPE. OVERALL...PREFER TO MAINTAIN HPC CONTINUITY AMID UNCERTAINTY WITH A SOLUTION STILL PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A 50-50 BLEND OF THE 00 UTC ECMWF AND REASONABLY SUPPORTIVE 00 UTC GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. ALTHOUGH...ANY OF THESE AVRIED SOLUTIONS REMAIN PLAUIBLE IN THIS SENSITIVE FLOW PATTERN...AT LEAST THE NEWER CLUSTER OF 12 UTC GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/ECMWF/UKMET SEEM IN LINE WITH THIS BLENDED HPC SOLUTION... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 the extended looks pretty good day 9 and 10. euro has a huge precip shield coming out of the gulf with CAD damming from the high out in the plains. as far as tuesday night, still looking close IMO for the mountains and foothills.not ready to commit one way or the other. the 00z euro was really really close from hickory west to the mountains. only really a degree here or there would result in a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I would be very interested to see the new mets from RDU's call maps for the areas that do have a chance of snow and see their thoughts. I see Robert and Eyewall put their thoughts out there. Lets place your bets on the tables boys and girls! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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