ncjoaquin Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Looking at BUFKIT, KAVL starts off as snow from 11pm Tuesday night... we switch over to rain at around 2-3am, but when the deformation band moves overhead, we switch back to snow at 12pm and NAM at that point drops about 8 inches here. Adiabatic Lift (which is a cooling process) is going to pay a very pivotal role in the mountains of NC, which can offset some of the WAA the 850mb low throws are way. That is largely what helped us during the early December snowstorm that you were spot on over here. I am particularly concerned about the Southern Appalachians... the December 18th-19th storm here last year was devastating, and even that pales in comparison to the massive dump we got on January 27th, 1998. Both events had pretty high SLC with ratios around 6:1 to 10:1. This even looks very similar, and with such heavy precipitation rates, I'm very concerned about falling trees. The NCEP maps don't paint the whole picture with the GFS. There are a lot of locations just to the west of the 850mb low that rapidly fall below freezing by 78 hours. Per the plymouth maps, folks in GSP, HKY, up to Winston-Salem seem to changeover as the heaviest deformation band precipitation moves overhead. January '98 was incredible. The forecast was for minimal snow and a change to rain. We had snow in the AM and a lull in the afternoon where there was some rain mixed in and then later some rain/snow mixed while I was sitting on I26 and then late afternoon it was hammer time. That snow was as hard as you can see it snow. I had 16 inches from that. I can see the comparison. When there was a lull, some rain, heavier precip, all heck breaks loose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I would expect the onset to delay by at least a few more hours. Remember, this storm was initially modeled as a Monday-Tuesday system. Yeah, and now it's a Wednesday system, boy do things change a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Northern ATL, snow? There is no way, it is not even close. I don't see anyone east of INT getting more than a passing flake at the very end, and even that is unlikely. The GFS snowfall map does not correspond well at all to the locations that are cold enough for snow, when investigating the soundings. For example, ATL is never even close to snow while there is sufficient saturation in the column, nor is GSP, CLT, GSO, or even HKY. I don't think anyone is disputing whether it will snow with the warm soundings. The question is whether the projected soundings are correct. The debate should be about the models not realizing the potential of a much colder solution. I agree it will not snow until the column profiles will allow it to reach the ground. No-one can deny that, but you have to admit this is becoming more and more interesting with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 12z GFS gives me .65 qpf looks to be snow ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I would expect the onset to delay by at least a few more hours. Remember, this storm was initially modeled as a Monday-Tuesday system. I wonder what would happen should the delay continue....... http://vortex.plymouth.edu/avn-sfc.84.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I wouldn't trust those surface temps at all. We have high pressure to the north and northwest, low in south GA and due north winds at the surface. Even in October, thats 30's for us at the surface. Good point about the HP Robert. Wow, remember....you called out the HP trends late yesterday bro! I bet the HP feed will trend stronger now. We shall see! I posted something about this last night as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 Andy Wood just updated his blog...cold rain upstate, 4-8 inches in the mountain areas (with some rain mix) and 6-12 in areas north of Asheville where there is no mixing at all. http://www.foxcarolina.com/weatherblog/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Well the 12z GFS Ens Mean takes it right through GA/SC/NC in between I-85/I-95, right over RDU, looks like 0z OP run from last night, but the spaghetti plots still show a lot of spread for 72 hours out. So the UK/CMC look to be on to something. Mountains still look to be OK with this track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Here is the 12Z GFS snow forecast map. Nowhere do I even see a hint of devastating snows... All I see is light to moderate snow for the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Here is the 12Z GFS snow forecast map. Nowhere do I even see a hint of devastating snows... All I see is light to moderate snow for the mountains. Whatever happened to a model being a forecast tool and not to be taken literally at face value? I agree the GFS and its crappy snowfall depiction looks like crapola but this pattern has some very real possibilities for those in the mountains in this setup and could receive a huge snowfall. How or why are you overlooking this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Out to 48 on Plymouth. Low is at 1009mb sitting just south of LA. with the trough taking a neutral tilt. Glad to have my internet back again after around 3 days. Been keeping up with the forum from a friend of mine's computer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Euro is rolling, where's our pbp guys ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Whatever happened to a model being a forecast tool and not to be taken literally at face value? I agree the GFS and its crappy snowfall depiction looks like crapola but this pattern has some very real possibilities for those in the mountains in this setup and could receive a huge snowfall. How or why are you overlooking this? I argued with the same poster last night over what the Euro showed. He/she is an accuweather transplant so there's probably no hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Here is the 12Z GFS snow forecast map. Nowhere do I even see a hint of devastating snows... All I see is light to moderate snow for the mountains. The GFS has been in left field on this event. Its erratic solutions make it difficult to find a trend. That said, I would take accumulation maps w/ a grain of salt. They can be reliable for the likeliest areas for snow. But the amounts on those maps don't verify well at all IMO. Here is a question for any meteorologist who would like to answer...or experienced hobbiest. The Canadian appears to have almost a perfectly shaped slp(comma head included) going through the Piedmont though the surface slp is closer to the Apps. The areas west of the Apps would usually see snow from that set-up nine out of ten times. Obviously it begins warm. Then the cold air crashes into the system as it strengthens and pulls north. Most of TN would be in the northweast quadrant. I would think that someone in east or middle TN is going to get hammered. NE TN appears to be almost too close to the slp, but time will tell. Is that thinking erroneous due to it just being too warm? My thinking is that the high pressure in the plains will supply cold air(albeit minimal) to the slp as it pulls by for those west of the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Euro thru 60, little slower, little weaker although it could just be weaker b/c it's slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I argued with the same poster last night over what the Euro showed. He/she is an accuweather transplant so there's probably no hope. + 1,000,000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 @66 Euro looks pretty similar to 00z except there is less qpf for us which means we probably don't have heavy enough rates to really bring down temps...the low off the coast looks stronger though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Going way inland at 72. Running up I-85 thru 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The Euro is also a lot warmer this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I argued with the same poster last night over what the Euro showed. He/she is an accuweather transplant so there's probably no hope. I just really think that the mountains will get pa-lastered if they are on the right side of that 850 low. If it can happen in March it damn sure can happen in late January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 At 72 lines up with GFS Ens Mean, mountains should do OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I don't think anyone is disputing whether it will snow with the warm soundings. The question is whether the projected soundings are correct. The debate should be about the models not realizing the potential of a much colder solution. I agree it will not snow until the column profiles will allow it to reach the ground. No-one can deny that, but you have to admit this is becoming more and more interesting with time. Thats a good point. I never use soundings this far out, just look at the synoptic picture. Anyway, the Euro has trended colder, esp. west of the Apps. Its quite a snowstorm in Mississippi, southeast Ark. and maybe southern Tenn. By 66 hours the northern half of Alabama is probably snow, and by 72 hours eastern half of Tennessee and northern GA maybe to ATL is snow on this run. The low is cutting inland in central GA, which would mean the Mtns of NC are going to be hard to snow on the front end through 72 hours, but the areas I mentioned on the backside get a nice dump of snow if the surface temps cooperate. Should be good dynamics, as the 5H cuts off in northern Al/GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 At 78, 850's collapse and foothills could get some wrap around although 2M temps look real warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 At 84 thru 90 it really bombs out, should smack northern MA and the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The closed 5H system strengthens rapidly and tightens up as it goes from northern Georgia to northern SC during the day on Wednesday, with cold air in its northwest side, I'd think that argues for a nice comma head of heavy snow in N. Ga , western NC, far Upstate to the piedmont of NC, if the precip is hard enough and dynamic cooling occurs, which is likely in my opinion. The heights go from 546 to 539 en route to CLT , just like the March 2009 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I actually don't agree that anything has changed, or is becoming more interesting. I do not see where there is the potential for this to trend colder. There is not an abundant source of cold air anywhere across the eastern U.S., and so I do not expect this to trend any colder. In fact, the only way I think this could trend is warmer, as tpsteffe had mentioned yesterday. Well, the EURO seems to agree with you and is finally coming around to an inland track. This one really just doesn't look close to me, especially now with the EURO in from the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The closed 5H system strengthens rapidly and tightens up as it goes from northern Georgia to northern SC during the day on Wednesday, with cold air in its northwest side, I'd think that argues for a nice comma head of heavy snow in N. Ga , western NC, far Upstate to the piedmont of NC, if the precip is hard enough and dynamic cooling occurs, which is likely in my opinion. The heights go from 546 to 539 en route to CLT , just like the March 2009 storm. I feel like my area will be just too far east for this one, but for everyone else just to my west I hope your right. I also gotta wonder if the Euro is doing it's usual 2 day hiccup and doesn't starting going back to a more amplified solution 00z tonight and 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The Euro has been hinting at another cutoff developing near Louisiana later Thursday into Friday. Its still doing that. Shows snow in Ala, Ga and the western Carolinas by Friday morning. More headaches coming up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I feel like my area will be just too far east for this one, but for everyone else just to my west I hope your right. I also gotta wonder if the Euro is doing it's usual 2 day hiccup and doesn't starting going back to a more amplified solution 00z tonight and 12z tomorrow. when the 5H comes over you midday Wednesday, you'll know it. But right now its 72 hours out and too tough to call for sure. Be alert that it can change to wet snow even in CLT with this 5h closed upper low. Its really a perfect track, once the coastal gets out of the way. Temps as usual are going to be close, but some areas will see a sig. snow I think not far from you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 12z Euro I think it's a lot of rain and maybe some snow mix in and the end of the precip ? I don't know how to read all this when it's close. WED 00Z 26-JAN 1.5 0.6 1017 88 99 0.04 559 545 WED 06Z 26-JAN 0.9 2.3 1011 99 97 0.23 557 548 WED 12Z 26-JAN 0.8 2.7 1005 98 89 0.30 550 547 WED 18Z 26-JAN 1.8 -0.7 1000 96 92 0.22 542 542 THU 00Z 27-JAN 1.6 -2.0 1005 82 74 0.10 546 542 Can somebody help a brotha out, Tell what it says. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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