burgertime Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Saw that..... Looks like the 650 low slides by just south and east of CLT. The 700mb closed feature comes through the up-state and right across CLT. This would explain the crashing heights and the snowfall projections. That would be some epic intense snow rates...hard to buy though considering how all over the place the NAM had been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Even though I know this is a rain event for the RDU area I was looking forward to a soaking rain. I've noticed over the last several model runs what looks to be a dry slot forming over our area that will cut down our precip amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Even though I know this is a rain event for the RDU area I was looking forward to a soaking rain. I've noticed over the last several model runs what looks to be a dry slot forming over our area that will cut down our precip amounts. Yeah, according to the NAM most people would just see a steady light rain, then on the back end 3"/hour snowfall rates for CLT to the Triad, West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Even though I know this is a rain event for the RDU area I was looking forward to a soaking rain. I've noticed over the last several model runs what looks to be a dry slot forming over our area that will cut down our precip amounts. Looking at the NAM total QPF all of NC would be close to an inch...not bad at all for a good soaking rain if the snow doesn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Looking at the NAM total QPF all of NC would be close to an inch...not bad at all for a good soaking rain if the snow doesn't happen. Very true burger...I did not even look at the total qpf on the nam, just individual member so you're correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 lol I know it's useless to look at but the NAM snowfall map for WNC looks simply beautiful. .. has CLT in 8-12 and points just west in 12+ now that you mention I did look. Those maps are about useless but I guess you could enjoy seeing 12" in your backyard once. It has Forest City to GSP CLT To GSO in it. It all depends on that 7H feature as the system is crossing the area. Usually, there is one in a coastal, well developed track like that, but this comes during the daytime Wednesday and our surface temps are going to be above freezing probably. But if the rates are hard enough, obviously it can accumulate. I'm hoping we finally get some concensus on things after the full 12Z suite, but even if we don't its time to put out some kind of forecast, even if it is "subject to change". It makes sense when the h7 and h5 lows are back there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 That would be some epic intense snow rates...hard to buy though considering how all over the place the NAM had been. Actually, when I was looking at the model projections yesterday, I was waiting for a run to catch on to the dynamics of the storm. Looks like this morning's NAM might be a plausible solution. I wouldn't put much faith in it yet, but if this trend continues, it will have to be considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 now that you mention I did look. Those maps are about useless but I guess you could enjoy seeing 12" in your backyard once. It has Forest City to GSP CLT To GSO in it. It all depends on that 7H feature as the system is crossing the area. Usually, there is one in a coastal, well developed track like that, but this comes during the daytime Wednesday and our surface temps are going to be above freezing probably. But if the rates are hard enough, obviously it can accumulate. I'm hoping we finally get some concensus on things after the full 12Z suite, but even if we don't its time to put out some kind of forecast, even if it is "subject to change". Yep this is a mess with the models and someone is going to bust hard either calling for no snow or tons of snow...or a little bit of snow. Just a real mess. I'll be the GFS and Euro stay mixed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 IF that deform band were snow I would be happy per the NAM. It drops over a inch of liquid on me in 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yep this is a mess with the models and someone is going to bust hard either calling for no snow or tons of snow...or a little bit of snow. Just a real mess. I'll be the GFS and Euro stay mixed up. or both could be sort of right - we see snow, even a fair amount, but it never accumulates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 or both could be sort of right - we see snow, even a fair amount, but it never accumulates True, this could be March of last year all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 lol I know it's useless to look at but the NAM snowfall map for WNC looks simply beautiful. .. has CLT in 8-12 and points just west in 12+ The forecasters at GSP are probably laughing at this right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 True, this could be March of last year all over again. thats one of my fears - we get snow, but it takes significant elevation to get the accumulating snow. i was ok in march 10 but that really kept my snowfall down in march 09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yeah, according to the NAM most people would just see a steady light rain, then on the back end 3"/hour snowfall rates for CLT to the Triad, West. Um, no. Mountains yes..everyone else just a cold rain. Boundary layer temps on the nam are way too warm for everyone in nc outside the mountains for snow. Temps are near 40 and using hky's sounding the warm nose goes all the way up to 875mb. There is a sliver of hope for some in north ga on the nam though as the deformation axis/precip is so intense it drops snow levels probably down to 1500 to 2000 feet in some areas. Nega(the poster) for example could get lucky but as soon as that moves out, the temp rapidly shoots up. That is the only hope anyone outside the higher elevations have..is that extreme dynamical cooling/very intense precip rates can cool the column enough so that the foothills have a shot for a few hour time period. Simply put there just isn't much cold air with this one folks and it's hard to nearly impossible for me to find a way where snow is going to be a significant player outside of the mountains. The mountains could do pretty well depending on if that deformation axis sets up there. But for the rest of us, I just can't see this being anything other than rain. You can take these snow maps from accuweather and anywhere else and throw them in the garbage because it's not happening outside the mountains short of a miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Per the 12z NAM bufkit 1.35" of qpf fall between hrs 69-84 in CLT.... at least it will be a precip producer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Um, no. Mountains yes..everyone else just a cold rain. Boundary layer temps on the nam are way too warm for everyone in nc outside the mountains for snow. Temps are near 40 and using hky's sounding the warm nose goes all the way up to 875mb. mountains short of a miracle. looks like this area will be right on the line...its just a matter of what the elevation you need for accumulations ends up being. it can go both ways (as it has the last two years) around 1500' sometimes its closer to 2200-2500. right now there is a chance to see something, but i dont expect much to stick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Um, no. Mountains yes..everyone else just a cold rain. Boundary layer temps on the nam are way too warm for everyone in nc outside the mountains for snow. Temps are near 40 and using hky's sounding the warm nose goes all the way up to 875mb. There is a sliver of hope for some in north ga on the nam though as the deformation axis/precip is so intense it drops snow levels probably down to 1500 to 2000 feet in some areas. Nega(the poster) for example could get lucky but as soon as that moves out, the temp rapidly shoots up. That is the only hope anyone outside the higher elevations have..is that extreme dynamical cooling/very intense precip rates can cool the column enough so that the foothills have a shot for a few hour time period. Simply put there just isn't much cold air with this one folks and it's hard to nearly impossible for me to find a way where snow is going to be a significant player outside of the mountains. The mountains could do pretty well depending on if that deformation axis sets up there. But for the rest of us, I just can't see this being anything other than rain. You can take these snow maps from accuweather and anywhere else and throw them in the garbage because it's not happening outside the mountains short of a miracle. I understand what you are saying and I completely agree. Gotta be realistic around here, but I was just stating what I saw from Accuweather's snowfall map. Like I said in a few posts, I'm not going to put much faith, if any at all into it. Just a little moral booster, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Simply put there just isn't much cold air with this one folks and it's hard to nearly impossible for me to find a way where snow is going to be a significant player outside of the mountains. The mountains could do pretty well depending on if that deformation axis sets up there. But for the rest of us, I just can't see this being anything other than rain. You can take these snow maps from accuweather and anywhere else and throw them in the garbage because it's not happening outside the mountains short of a miracle. For CLT we need the perfect track and setup of the deform axis and we know how that usually goes. I understand why some folks are less then enthusiastic about this run. I'm jumping on the miracle train though and hoping it happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 True, this could be March of last year all over again. The snowfall rates would be too fast and furious for it not to accumulate (even with temps in the 33-34 range) Anyone have profile data from this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 lots of obs missing from this run NOUS42 KWNO 231343ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD 1343Z SUN JAN 23 2011 THE 12Z NAM BEGAN ON SCHD AND THERE WERE MORE THAN USUAL RAOB PBLMS OVER N AMER BUT WITH 29 CAN 11 MEX AND 8 CARIB RAOBS AVBL. RAOB RECAP... AKN/70326 - POWER FAILURE...CODE 10144. FFC/72215 - FLIGHT EQUIPMENT FAILURE...CODE 10158. KPP/78970 - GROUND EQUIPMENT FAILURE...CODE 10142. NCC/78988 - GROUND EQUIPMENT FAILURE...CODE 10142. MZL/76654 - MISCELLANEOUS ISSUE...CODE 10159. BMX/72230 - SHORT TO 472 MB...CODE 10159. INL/72747 - WIND DATA MISSING. YMW/71722 - UNAVAILABLE. YVP/71906 - DEL HGTS/TEMPS 871 MB AND UP...UP TO 6 K WARM. LIH/91165 - DELETED TEMPS 841-774 MB...SUPER-ADIABATIC LR. KPB/78954 - DELETED TEMPS 890...715-704...674-672 MB... SUPER-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. CRITICAL WEATHER DAY STATUS... NO CWD IS IN EFFECT PRESENTLY HOWEVER NWS WILL BE MONITORING THE DEVPMT OF A POTENTIALLY MAJOR EAST COAST WINTER STORM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. $$ STOUDT/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tpsteffe Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Um, no. Mountains yes..everyone else just a cold rain. Boundary layer temps on the nam are way too warm for everyone in nc outside the mountains for snow. Temps are near 40 and using hky's sounding the warm nose goes all the way up to 875mb. There is a sliver of hope for some in north ga on the nam though as the deformation axis/precip is so intense it drops snow levels probably down to 1500 to 2000 feet in some areas. Nega(the poster) for example could get lucky but as soon as that moves out, the temp rapidly shoots up. That is the only hope anyone outside the higher elevations have..is that extreme dynamical cooling/very intense precip rates can cool the column enough so that the foothills have a shot for a few hour time period. Simply put there just isn't much cold air with this one folks and it's hard to nearly impossible for me to find a way where snow is going to be a significant player outside of the mountains. The mountains could do pretty well depending on if that deformation axis sets up there. But for the rest of us, I just can't see this being anything other than rain. You can take these snow maps from accuweather and anywhere else and throw them in the garbage because it's not happening outside the mountains short of a miracle. Couldn't agree with you more. CLT on this NAM run, for example, never sees surface temps below 40 and 850 temps struggle to even get to freezing with a decent ULL track. Precip rates aren't going to save most of us outside of the mountains folks, there just isn't any cold air to work with. It's a shame because this could have been a big time storm for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The snowfall rates would be too fast and furious for it not to accumulate (even with temps in the 33-34 range) Anyone have profile data from this run? even so, if we have had a lot of rain first and everything is soaking wet it will take temps below 32 to really let anything stick. its happened quite a few times here - temp will drop to like 32.7 but with decent rates you get maybe a dusting, if that. lots of obs missing from this run well thats nice. why even bother looking at the run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 lots of obs missing from this run Cant really expect anything different...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 lots of obs missing from this run Well that explains that...means the GFS will probably be pretty different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 thats one of my fears - we get snow, but it takes significant elevation to get the accumulating snow. i was ok in march 10 but that really kept my snowfall down in march 09 and thats exactly the opposite for me. I had the perfect accum. snow March 2009 (9" in 6 hours) but didnt' March 2010. It even rained march 2010. Dynamics and a perfect position in relation to the upper features is crucial when temps are borderline. This one will play the same way I think. Its hard to pinpoint which areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 lots of obs missing from this run Great! FFC and BMX! Just our luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow for dylan Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Does North Ga still stand a chance like around and north lake lanier. The Nam and Euro looked good to me. Any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 and thats exactly the opposite for me. I had the perfect accum. snow March 2009 (9" in 6 hours) but didnt' March 2010. It even rained march 2010. Dynamics and a perfect position in relation to the upper features is crucial when temps are borderline. This one will play the same way I think. Its hard to pinpoint which areas. by the time i realized where the march 09 track of heavy snow was setting up and lost hope for mby i had waited too late to get to my parents house in athens. i ended up with a little, but nothing like just to my south. the track is the key to this one, so until we have a better idea just where its going to set up all we can do is watch the models and wait and see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GFS is rolling, out to hour 6.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Um, no. Mountains yes..everyone else just a cold rain. Boundary layer temps on the nam are way too warm for everyone in nc outside the mountains for snow. Temps are near 40 and using hky's sounding the warm nose goes all the way up to 875mb. There is a sliver of hope for some in north ga on the nam though as the deformation axis/precip is so intense it drops snow levels probably down to 1500 to 2000 feet in some areas. Nega(the poster) for example could get lucky but as soon as that moves out, the temp rapidly shoots up. That is the only hope anyone outside the higher elevations have..is that extreme dynamical cooling/very intense precip rates can cool the column enough so that the foothills have a shot for a few hour time period. Simply put there just isn't much cold air with this one folks and it's hard to nearly impossible for me to find a way where snow is going to be a significant player outside of the mountains. The mountains could do pretty well depending on if that deformation axis sets up there. But for the rest of us, I just can't see this being anything other than rain. You can take these snow maps from accuweather and anywhere else and throw them in the garbage because it's not happening outside the mountains short of a miracle. Does North Ga still stand a chance like around and north lake lanier. The Nam and Euro looked good to me. Any thoughts? This was just posted above your question. Please take the time to read before asking these type of questions in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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