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Jan 25/26 Storm Threat...(Part 3)


Marion_NC_WX

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Honestly I think the people in RDU have a right to b**ch after being shafted in the last one. As for this storm I am still relatively unchanged and thinking cold rain for most in NC. This doesn't mean I am rooting against my friends in the west though. I just know for a lot in central NC this is torture compounded by the coastal snow yesterday. I have done well this year so far so I have no right to complain other then the fact I really can't stand cold rain.

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Robert, I am sure of this statement: the general population of the southeast crew is ; glad to see your back and more importantly you better! All in agreement on the matter on the floor? Say I

thanks. At 66 hours a pocket of 0 @850 develops over part of the NC mountains. I mentioned yesterday I think that models would see some dynamic and evap. cooling there so thats probably whats going on. If you look at the distance between the 0 and the +4 line, its a large distance , so many areas bound between I-20 and I-40 in the Southeast are around +2 to +3 at 850 for much of the event, thats not warm, its too warm generally for snow, but with elevation and some enhanced cooling, the mtns would be a good candidate for snow in that setup. Its hard to find the slp. in the NAM at 72 hours. Probably southeast GA. By then the nw section of the storm in TN and Miss. has turned to snow.

The 5H still hasn't closed off. I don't recall if other runs closed it off fully though.

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5h closes off at 78 -- it's unbelievable that it could close off in such a nice spot in this winter when it's cold every friggin day, and we still end up too warm for snow. Whatever.

thanks. At 66 hours a pocket of 0 @850 develops over part of the NC mountains. I mentioned yesterday I think that models would see some dynamic and evap. cooling there so thats probably whats going on. If you look at the distance between the 0 and the +4 line, its a large distance , so many areas bound between I-20 and I-40 in the Southeast are around +2 to +3 at 850 for much of the event, thats not warm, its too warm generally for snow, but with elevation and some enhanced cooling, the mtns would be a good candidate for snow in that setup. Its hard to find the slp. in the NAM at 72 hours. Probably southeast GA. By then the nw section of the storm in TN and Miss. has turned to snow.

The 5H still hasn't closed off. I don't recall if other runs closed it off fully though.

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Honestly I think the people in RDU have a right to b**ch after being shafted in the last one. As for this storm I am still relatively unchanged and thinking cold rain for most in NC. This doesn't mean I am rooting against my friends in the west though. I just know for a lot in central NC this is torture compounded by the coastal snow yesterday. I have done well this year so far so I have no right to complain other then the fact I really can't stand cold rain.

Eyewall, It was nice of you to say that for area residents of RDU. the phrase IMBY for me and stroke is becoming the southeastern US as I'm going in more directions every year. So I'm glad that a lot of folks ask and I get to benefit to the answer of their question IMBY...

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@84 hmm. Triad has real heavy precip over us, and taken verbatim it's snow. Weird. Wish I could post the picture, but it's AccweatherPro..

Yep 993 low just off the Delmarva coast but it extends quite a deformation band down into North Carolina. I get a little skeptical when I see maps like that with the surface low so far north of us.

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Yep 993 low just off the Delmarva coast but it extends quite a deformation band down into North Carolina. I get a little skeptical when I see maps like that with the surface low so far north of us.

It makes sense when the h7 and h5 lows are back there.

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My analysis on this NAM run: Its mostly a Gulf low that takes the traditional Winter storm track across FL panhandle to GA coast then Wilmington. Now, its unfortunate it doesn't have a lot of cold air, even on the west side. But this track will allow dynamic cooling. The 850 low track begins around eastern Alabama and crosses ATL then follows Interstate 85. That track, even with marginal temps, will pound northeast Alabama, northern GA and the mtns and foothills with heavy, wet snow, under a solid , rotating band of deformation snow. The temps are probably barely going to be cold enough, but as the suface low is at the coast, and the 5H system in a good spot in South GA and translates to a closed low crossing SC and to NC coast. This should allow just enough cold air to be dynamically cooled with extreme lift (the vort is top of the chart!), so if it doesn't snow hard in a line from Ne Ala/se TN and points northeast across the Southern Apps, I'd shred my Met diploma. But, this all based on this run of the NAM, it does resemble the Euro for several runs, and where I am leaning as far as the overall setup. Its a very slow mover, good precip producer, and for some folks in Ms,Tn, Al, Ga Sc, NC and VA mostly north and west of the 850 low, there will be both heavy rain and then heavy snow. If this run of the NAM is close to right, a (maybe) devastating heavy wet snow would hit some areas of the Srn. Apps region roughly anywhere from Ne. Ala/est TN/extreme N. GA/Wrn Carolinas/VA. The comma head showing up is harsh , and may stretch into the piedmont of NC. Again, this is my analysis of the NAM. It looks reasonable, and jives with the Euro.

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lol I know it's useless to look at but the NAM snowfall map for WNC looks simply beautiful. .. has CLT in 8-12 and points just west in 12+

Triad is looking in good shape based on that, but it's hard to buy into something like that. If we can get the moisture and the cold air at the same time on the wrap-around, then here's to another March 09! :weight_lift:

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I see lots of surprises with this system folks. But one thing that I think it a shoe in is the mountians above 1,500' will see snow :) (Per GSP thoughts this morning) So that line splits Rutherford County in half....

Awesome...

havent quite caught up yet from last night, but looks like its still up in the air for some areas. not really feeling the love for n ga right now, but i did like the HPC map!

hopefully that 1500' will apply to ga as well as nc :devilsmiley:

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lol I know it's useless to look at but the NAM snowfall map for WNC looks simply beautiful. .. has CLT in 8-12 and points just west in 12+

Saw that..... Looks like the 650 low slides by just south and east of CLT. The 700mb closed feature comes through the up-state and right across CLT. This would explain the crashing heights and the snowfall projections.

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