Amos83 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'm not an expert, but my experience says no. The track of such a lp system is going to be primarily driven by the track of the H5 flow/cutoff low. Sometimes the Gulf Stream can play a part in the location of cyclogenesis off the SE coast, in conjunction with other mid/upper level features. But by and large the surface low track is not going to be influenced by the Gulf Stream. That's what I assumed... I know when tropical systems move close to the gulf stream the GS tends to pull the storm toward it so I didn't know if a LP inland would do the same if it was close enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 NAM rolling in........this ought to be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Just over 1000' I can see two mountain ranges to my N and NW that are close to it not over 2100" Mark what's your elevation ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman566 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 What's the snowpack like to our north? Could the models be underestimating the cold air to our north? Dynamically, if the low does strengthen, dynamically, it could cool enough to spit out snow across the SE, especially if the low moves further south, and allows northern portions of AL/GA and SC/TN to receive snow, especially on the back end of it by Tuesday evening. Also, I feel like the models have a better idea earlier than on model runs right before the event. Also, models seem to underestimate QPF values and temps. Look at March 2009. I still think this storm has enough potential to surprise people. Also, we are in January, not March. Climo wise, we have better chances than we did in March 2009. (Not something to always use, but good thing to remember) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
socar2001 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 We have a ski trip planned for Thursday to Sunday at sugar mountain. Anyone up there know what kind of snows they could be looking at from this system? Do you think travel will be difficult? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Good morning crew. I'm feeling a ton better now. Lets see how the 12z runs do. I'll make my first call after the euro comes out. Its about time to put something out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Mark what's your elevation ? The guy with the check is at 206 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Good morning crew. I'm feeling a ton better now. Lets see how the 12z runs do. I'll make my first call after the euro comes out. Its about time to put something out there. Glad to see your feeling better now hopfully in time for our storm to arrive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Good morning crew. I'm feeling a ton better now. Lets see how the 12z runs do. I'll make my first call after the euro comes out. Its about time to put something out there. Glad you are better! I (like many) am really glad you are back to keep the sanity! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The Great Lakes feature looks weaker through 36 - not sure if that will allow our HP to hang on for another few hours ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Good morning crew. I'm feeling a ton better now. Lets see how the 12z runs do. I'll make my first call after the euro comes out. Its about time to put something out there. Glad to have you back....this place was not the same that's for sure. Don't even bother going back and reading it. All you missed was a bunch of arguing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Glad you are better! I (like many) am really glad you are back to keep the sanity! I'm no shrink. This storm is going to be a monster. A big rain for many, and a huge dump of snow for some, not everybody is going to be happy. Even though a lot of us could use a 2" rainfall, so I'm not going to complain. Low pressure is developing at 42 hours on the NAM, western Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The guy with the check is at 206 What address is that? I am looking in the mailbox Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Good morning crew. I'm feeling a ton better now. Lets see how the 12z runs do. I'll make my first call after the euro comes out. Its about time to put something out there. Robert, it was like we were watching the penguins jumping into the ocean, it was a mass push! I still think this is going to be fun watching as it unfolds, while it might be a rain event for most, with such a dynamic system, there could be some big surprises for some people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Glad you are better! I (like many) am really glad you are back to keep the sanity! Hmmmm I guess things got a lil testy in here lastnight ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'm no shrink. This storm is going to be a monster. A big rain for many, and a huge dump of snow for some, not everybody is going to be happy. Even though a lot of us could use a 2" rainfall, so I'm not going to complain. Low pressure is developing at 42 hours on the NAM, western Gulf. The only one that can keep my hopes up has arrived! I am not a bit excited so help Robert Off to Church hope I come home to a good report Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Hmmmm I guess things got a lil testy in here lastnight ??? :whistle:Think so! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Robert, it was like we were watching the penguins jumping into the ocean, it was a mass push! I still think this is going to be fun watching as it unfolds, while it might be a rain event for most, with such a dynamic system, there could be some big surprises for some people. Now that;s funny.......true.... but still funny. I actually got a visual of that and laughed. The wife asked me what was so funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Good morning crew. I'm feeling a ton better now. Lets see how the 12z runs do. I'll make my first call after the euro comes out. Its about time to put something out there. Glad you better Missed you not being on here last night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 More moisture over southern LA at 45 compared to the 06 run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 What address is that? I am looking in the mailbox I'll save you a trip nothing there yet but they are dribbling in now so it should not be long... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Hmmmm I guess things got a lil testy in here lastnight ??? Yeah, it was "every man for himself" We started looking for fox-holes to dive in...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'll save you a trip nothing there yet but they are dribbling in now so it should not be long... Just kidding, just wanted to smile like picture at bottom of Big Frosty's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 This run of the NAM is going to be too warm as well. @ 51 the 850mb 0 degree line is near DC.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Robert, it was like we were watching the penguins jumping into the ocean, it was a mass push! I still think this is going to be fun watching as it unfolds, while it might be a rain event for most, with such a dynamic system, there could be some big surprises for some people. haha thats not a good picture. You're right about suprises...all southern cutoffs that have some cold air to wrap in offer suprises. So far, this storm is still getting delayed. Out to 48 hours on the NAM and its slowed again. By 54 hours, theres good backing all over the Southeast and a huge shield of moisture coming north. By then its cold enough on the western side near northeast Tx/ ne La. to probably be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Really big storm @ 57, but still warm. Everyone is in the 30's..though the 850mb line is a little farther south than @ 51. Maybe 50 miles more south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 haha thats not a good picture. You're right about suprises...all southern cutoffs that have some cold air to wrap in offer suprises. So far, this storm is still getting delayed. Out to 48 hours on the NAM and its slowed again. By 54 hours, theres good backing all over the Southeast and a huge shield of moisture coming north. By then its cold enough on the western side near northeast Tx/ ne La. to probably be snow. Robert, I am sure of this statement: the general population of the southeast crew is ; glad to see your back and more importantly you better! All in agreement on the matter on the floor? Say I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 @ 63 the moisture is making it's way into NC. Still too warm. Gonna be a warm run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 Storm looks to be supressed somewhat at 60...1007mb surface low just southeast of Mobile. Solid precip moving up through the Atlanta Metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Really big storm @ 57, but still warm. Everyone is in the 30's..though the 850mb line is a little farther south than @ 51. Maybe 50 miles more south.. Snow in DCA is good for me. So thank you for that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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