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Jan 25/26 Storm Threat...(Part 3)


Marion_NC_WX

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I'm not an expert, but my experience says no. The track of such a lp system is going to be primarily driven by the track of the H5 flow/cutoff low.

Sometimes the Gulf Stream can play a part in the location of cyclogenesis off the SE coast, in conjunction with other mid/upper level features. But by and large the surface low track is not going to be influenced by the Gulf Stream.

That's what I assumed... I know when tropical systems move close to the gulf stream the GS tends to pull the storm toward it so I didn't know if a LP inland would do the same if it was close enough.

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What's the snowpack like to our north? Could the models be underestimating the cold air to our north? Dynamically, if the low does strengthen, dynamically, it could cool enough to spit out snow across the SE, especially if the low moves further south, and allows northern portions of AL/GA and SC/TN to receive snow, especially on the back end of it by Tuesday evening. Also, I feel like the models have a better idea earlier than on model runs right before the event. Also, models seem to underestimate QPF values and temps. Look at March 2009.

I still think this storm has enough potential to surprise people. Also, we are in January, not March. Climo wise, we have better chances than we did in March 2009. (Not something to always use, but good thing to remember)

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Good morning crew. I'm feeling a ton better now. Lets see how the 12z runs do. I'll make my first call after the euro comes out. Its about time to put something out there.

Glad to have you back....this place was not the same that's for sure. Don't even bother going back and reading it. All you missed was a bunch of arguing.

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Glad you are better! I (like many) am really glad you are back to keep the sanity!

:lol: I'm no shrink. This storm is going to be a monster. A big rain for many, and a huge dump of snow for some, not everybody is going to be happy. Even though a lot of us could use a 2" rainfall, so I'm not going to complain.

Low pressure is developing at 42 hours on the NAM, western Gulf.

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Good morning crew. I'm feeling a ton better now. Lets see how the 12z runs do. I'll make my first call after the euro comes out. Its about time to put something out there.

Robert, it was like we were watching the penguins jumping into the ocean, it was a mass push! rolleyes.gif

I still think this is going to be fun watching as it unfolds, while it might be a rain event for most, with such a dynamic system, there could be some big surprises for some people.

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:lol: I'm no shrink. This storm is going to be a monster. A big rain for many, and a huge dump of snow for some, not everybody is going to be happy. Even though a lot of us could use a 2" rainfall, so I'm not going to complain.

Low pressure is developing at 42 hours on the NAM, western Gulf.

The only one that can keep my hopes up has arrived! I am not a bit excited so help Robertpopcorn.gif Off to Church hope I come home to a good report

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Robert, it was like we were watching the penguins jumping into the ocean, it was a mass push! rolleyes.gif

I still think this is going to be fun watching as it unfolds, while it might be a rain event for most, with such a dynamic system, there could be some big surprises for some people.

Now that;s funny.......true.... but still funny. I actually got a visual of that and laughed. The wife asked me what was so funny.

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Robert, it was like we were watching the penguins jumping into the ocean, it was a mass push! rolleyes.gif

I still think this is going to be fun watching as it unfolds, while it might be a rain event for most, with such a dynamic system, there could be some big surprises for some people.

haha thats not a good picture. You're right about suprises...all southern cutoffs that have some cold air to wrap in offer suprises. So far, this storm is still getting delayed. Out to 48 hours on the NAM and its slowed again. By 54 hours, theres good backing all over the Southeast and a huge shield of moisture coming north. By then its cold enough on the western side near northeast Tx/ ne La. to probably be snow.

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haha thats not a good picture. You're right about suprises...all southern cutoffs that have some cold air to wrap in offer suprises. So far, this storm is still getting delayed. Out to 48 hours on the NAM and its slowed again. By 54 hours, theres good backing all over the Southeast and a huge shield of moisture coming north. By then its cold enough on the western side near northeast Tx/ ne La. to probably be snow.

Robert, I am sure of this statement: the general population of the southeast crew is ; glad to see your back and more importantly you better! All in agreement on the matter on the floor? Say I

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