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Jan 25/26 Storm Threat...(Part 3)


Marion_NC_WX

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Looks to me that the 18z nam is still going to be inland. The trough is almost neutral in E. Tx @ hr 69. The HP is already out in the atlantic around hr 60.

The HP solution seems to be universally agreed upon all the models at this point. better to watch the trough axis and 850 low track.

At 75 hrs, the trough is just barely negative, but this is a little slower to do so than the last run, which is good.

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Look, we have a problem, and a big one!!devilsmiley.gif

You better bring that Monkey back, don't delay, do it now!!Snowman.gif

To me this is the a 50/50 mainly because of the high to the north moving out, and the low creating it own cold. It rarely works out, we have had a few but boy this is really stretching it to get some snow.

So the bomb looks to have already dropped off the planet ?

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I disagree. Ground temps will be cold enough, combined with heavy rates which is key, that roads can become covered even with low 30s. Seen i5 happen too many times to not feel that way. Without heavy rates though, you are right, it would have a hard time accumulating on the roads. We will have a heavy wet snow however that will stick everything else I believe.

Heavy rates are key, you are right. Track has to be mostly offshore in this situation to minimize warm advection, unless this truly is a bomb heading inland up the east coast. It seems most models backed off on this solution however. So the problem becomes more inland track like GGEM or Ukie gives good rates... as rain. Euro and GFS are marginal for snow in the Charlotte area, but give less QPF which I believe is underdone. We really need this to stay east and strengthen quickly or its rain rain rain without the high up in New England feeding cold air southward.

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even though the hp has moved offshore in my opinion there is still a decent damming signature in the isobars and the dynamics from the beast verbatim off of the nam will switch you over to snow if your on the nw side of it once again this is just verbatim off the nam not a forecast.

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REA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA

335 PM EST SAT JAN 22 2011

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

NO WEATHER PROBLEMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. THE GFS/NAM

ARE SIMILAR WITH FORECASTING A SHORT WAVE AND MOISTURE THAT WILL

AFFECT MAINLY N GA WITH LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO

EARLY MONDAY. THE WAVE WILL BE RATHER FAST MOVING WITH ONLY 20-30

PERCENT POPS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FLURRIES

POSSIBLE FOR THE NE MOUNTAINS EARLY MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO

BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SMALL SNOW ACCUMUALATIONS.

UNCERTAINTY INCREASES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DIEING COLD FRONT

TO THE WEST AND GULF OF MEXICO LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND

MOVE TO S OF LA. MODELS SEEM CONSISTENT WITH SUGGESTING THE CHANCE

OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR FAR N GA MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY NIGHT POPS ABOUT

30 PERCENT FOR N AND W GA.

FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT

AND NEAR TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST HIGH

TEMPERATURES 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MOS

NUMBERS SEEMED TOO WARM FOR THE MONDAY HIGH`S AND FAVORED THE

FORECAST HIGHS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MODELS DIFFER ENOUGH FOR TUESDAY THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THE

FORECAST. THE NAM TRACKS THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL GA AND THIS

TRACK WILL ALLOW FOR NEARLY ALL RAIN ACROSS N GA. THE GFS AND

EUROPEAN TRACK THE SURFACE LOW FARTHER S THAT SUGGESTS THAT RAIN OR

SNOW COULD DEVELOP OVER FAR N GA WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR

ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE BY DAYS END TUESDAY. THE PASSING

SURFACE LOW AND UPPER SYSTEM BRINGS MORE COLD AIR IN QUICKLY TUESDAY

NIGHT FAVORING A CHANGE OVER OR CONTINUATION OF SNOW CHANCES FOR N

GA AND A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL GA. THIS TIME

FRAME WILL ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ACCUMULATIONS.

GFS/EUROPEAN SIMILAR WITH ENDING PRECIP CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND

KEEPING THINGS MAINLY DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS ARE

INDICATING AN UPPER TROUGH PASSING BY LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY

AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED. BOTH MODELS

BRING WHAT APPEARS TO BE A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT TO THE AREA ON

SATURDAY.

Ah yes... FFC still on the conservative 1-2" range. Nice. We see where that 1-2" forecast got them last time.:popcorn:

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The soundings for KCLT reveals a temp of 6.6C at 950, and 5.8C at RDU. I'm sorry, but all the dynamics in the world aren't going to make it snow with temps like that. Both the GFS and NAM have consistently been showing it this warm for several runs now.

Assuming the temp profiles that are being projected are correct, one has to think mainly rain for most of NC outside of the higher elevations, but is it safe to assume those maps are correct? It's pretty obvious the trend is warm though, as we have pretty good agreement among guidance.

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The soundings for KCLT reveals a temp of 6.6C at 950, and 5.8C at RDU. I'm sorry, but all the dynamics in the world aren't going to make it snow with temps like that. Both the GFS and NAM have consistently been showing it this warm for several runs now.

It's not even close to being snow on the NAM/GFS for anyone but the mountains.

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Ah yes... FFC still on the conservative 1-2" range. Nice. We see where that 1-2" forecast got them last time.:popcorn:

I think that's the right call at this point, in fact it might be too much for some areas. Checking soundings and looking over everything, there is going to be a fair amount of just plain old cold rain with this one for us because the boundary layer is so warm. We are going to have to hope that strong dynamics with the passing upper trough/low and deformation zone can overcome the warm boundary layer. This looks possible over the northwestern part of the state from rome to possibly gainesville north. But for atlanta, athens, it could be tough...even though otherwise we would be in a fantastic position if it was a bit colder.

This is sort of frustrating because in general the low track is normally a good one for us. But even subtracting the usual 2 to 3 degrees the models are off with when dealling with evaporational cooling, it's still too warm it would appear for a lot of the storm..if not most of it.

Sort of depressing because when i left it looked like a good chance of a few inches here because surface cold air would not be a problem. Now I get back and cold air is lacking and we have to depend on dynamics to have a shot and to be frank that rarely works out if you are talking about here.

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The biggest difference in today's run and Yesterday, in my opinion is the fact that we were looking @ a system coming in about 24 hrs. later. Now that we have delayed the storm it gives the HP enough time to slide right off the coast. Plus we have no 50/50. Maybe DT is right on this one folks!

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The soundings for KCLT reveals a temp of 6.6C at 950, and 5.8C at RDU. I'm sorry, but all the dynamics in the world aren't going to make it snow with temps like that. Both the GFS and NAM have consistently been showing it this warm for several runs now.

Sorry, but I don't buy it yet. If it is still showing that on Monday afternoon, then I will start believing.

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The soundings for KCLT reveals a temp of 6.6C at 950, and 5.8C at RDU. I'm sorry, but all the dynamics in the world aren't going to make it snow with temps like that. Both the GFS and NAM have consistently been showing it this warm for several runs now.

The ECMWF is warm like this to at 6z Wed. But there is significant cooling aloft between 6-12z at least in the RDU area. I will be intersted to see the 00z NAM at hour 84 to see if something similar happens.

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