BullCityWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 You arent proving anything by posting a map that's 12 hours after the event ends. go back and read my posts. This event crushes the NC mtns and foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Sorry for the IMBY question but what's the soundings look like in the N.Foothills (mwk) if you don't mind ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Oh yeah, you're definitely safe this run. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freeze Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Just got back and looked at the models. ... GGEM, GFS, and ECMWF 0Z runs ALL Say it's going to be a all rain event in North Carolina... I tried to be optimistic about this storm, but it's just getting too warm for snowstorms now. I guess you didn't see the 0Z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Sorry for the IMBY question but what's the soundings look like in the N.Foothills (mwk) if you don't mind ? Let's just say bringing back your monkey is working the mojo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 That's what I thought, But wasn't sure ? I appreciate it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Let's just say bringing back your monkey is working the mojo. I'm beginning to like the little feller Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Just FYI, this is an all snow event depicted by the euro for other areas like Morganton, Asheville, Boone, etc. In fact, Asheville and Morganton probably get a tree snapping wet snow of around 10-12". And how are you coming to this conclusion? ----------------------- Bottom shows predicted snowfall accumulation is expected according to the NAM and GFS for Asheville Airport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 And how are you coming to this conclusion? ----------------------- Bottom shows predicted snowfall accumulation is expected according to the NAM and GFS for Asheville Airport From the 0Z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 From the 0Z Euro Yea provide proof to back your hypothesis up. Saying "0Z Euro" is not proof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yea provide proof to back your hypothesis up. Saying "0Z Euro" is not proof. Go back and read my damn posts. I've led you to the water, it's up to you to drink it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freeze Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 So what's going on here? We just had a 0Z run from the most reliable model, telling us to forget the other models, the snowstorm is still on for someone outside the mountains. Where are our mets to give us an analysis on this run? It seems like its pretty important in the overall set-up of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 From the free images off the ECMWF tonight: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yea provide proof to back your hypothesis up. Saying "0Z Euro" is not proof. Either way, You said all models show no snow for entire state of NC, you already posted your own images that disproved that. Looking at the gfs ensembles images, not encouraging. I think 3 of the members put down snow in central NC, most of it wrap around stuff, not something I'm going to get excited about. I'd be excited if I lived in the NC Mts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freeze Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yea provide proof to back your hypothesis up. Saying "0Z Euro" is not proof. But NAM or GFS is proof? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yea provide proof to back your hypothesis up. Saying "0Z Euro" is not proof. I do not have access to the maps. I will let QC handle that with you.Basically, he is saying that looking at the track, temp profiles and QPF, he came to this conclusion. He has been around long enough and experienced enough to make a valid conclusion to this, based on this run. Do you have access to the maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'm gonna go back to the shadows in just a second, but I gotta say this--don't bring the same crap you put on accuwx over here...just because it flies there doesn't necessarily mean it's constructive, or in the case of some recent posts, coherent. I read more/post less over here b/c the stuff the mets and MOST of the others share is so informative and inclusive that there's nothing more I can add that's useful. Even the resident troll contributes decent stuff once in a while. So think twice before you post something. Sorry mods, delete this if you like, it just ticks me off that the crap that turned me off on accuwx's site has found it's way to the best board around, and it's gotta stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'm gonna go back to the shadows in just a second, but I gotta say this--don't bring the same crap you put on accuwx over here...just because it flies there doesn't necessarily mean it's constructive, or in the case of some recent posts, coherent. I read more/post less over here b/c the stuff the mets and MOST of the others share is so informative and inclusive that there's nothing more I can add that's useful. Even the resident troll contributes decent stuff once in a while. So think twice before you post something. Sorry mods, delete this if you like, it just ticks me off that the crap that turned me off on accuwx's site has found it's way to the best board around, and it's gotta stop. Who are you refrerencing? I am only asking since your post is after mine. Thanks and I agree with your statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 How long does it take for accuwxpro to update their friggin Euro model page? (30 day free trial...i know, I know...I only read the articles and never look at the pictures ) I'm just not feeling it for Georgia at this point. I cannot fathom the drastic nature of the NAM by no means but the EURO really stands alone in the 0z suite. I am glad it is the EURO standing with us. Some of the models will, eventually, come to some kind of solution. I think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
norcarolinian Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'm gonna go back to the shadows in just a second, but I gotta say this--don't bring the same crap you put on accuwx over here...just because it flies there doesn't necessarily mean it's constructive, or in the case of some recent posts, coherent. I read more/post less over here b/c the stuff the mets and MOST of the others share is so informative and inclusive that there's nothing more I can add that's useful. Even the resident troll contributes decent stuff once in a while. So think twice before you post something. Sorry mods, delete this if you like, it just ticks me off that the crap that turned me off on accuwx's site has found it's way to the best board around, and it's gotta stop. My first post here ...just absolutely had to say amen to that... already back in the shadows here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Who are you refrerencing? I am only asking since your post is after mine. Thanks and I agree with your statement. Not calling out any names in particular, that would be in bad taste. I'm calling out a situation I'm seeing more and more. Accuwx could basically care less what people post, as long as it's not profane or an all out attack towards someone...or at least it seems that way with what they allow. I just don't want this board to become tainted, it's the purest, most informative place I've found among wx boards. And I hope it stays that way. My post wasn't meant as a shot, just a plea for the crap to cease. FWIW, you were on Eastern when I first found it. You contribute. I think what I'm talking about is obvious to all of you...even to the one's posting what I'm talking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Finally have had a chance to get on and check out what the 00z guidance did.... MY JAW HIT THE FLOOR! First of all, let me say that the solutions the 00z guidance are trending towards is downright historic for the higher elevations of WNC. You typically don't see massive cutoff lows form in the middle of winter in the southeast, especially in a non El Nino year. What we have here is an example of massive moisture transport that will cause widespread 1-2" QPF totals across the region in the dead of winter. The source region of the upper level low is actually polar, and not subtropical, meaning when it cuts off it will have a significant source of cold air at its disposal. In the end, we are going to be dealing with a very dynamic system, and being in the cold air could mean a very heavy wet snowfall accumulation, the likes that haven't been seen since 1998 Basically its all going to some down to where the 500mb low tracks... right now its not looking good for most of ENC... but you folks likely knew that already. WSC and NGA will have to wait and see where the models decide to finally agree on where the 500mb low is going to go. It if dives far enough south, you guys still have a good shot at getting dynamically induced snowfall. Finally right now it appears that ETN and WNC are in the best spots to get accumulating snowfall. The question is how much? Even the warmer NAM and GGEM runs have snow on the onset in the WNC mountains before quickly going over to rain as strong WAA ramps up. Actually, TYS and AVL both look like big winners. No kidding... although its very borderline. Just FYI, this is an all snow event depicted by the euro for other areas like Morganton, Asheville, Boone, etc. In fact, Asheville and Morganton probably get a tree snapping wet snow of around 10-12". This is almost exactly like January 27th, 1998.... what a devastating storm of WNC up into SE VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The one thing that is making this storm so much warmer than it would be otherwise is the stupid weak low that is traveling across the great lakes at the time our shortwave cuts off. Its this feature that is pushing out the damming high that was in place in the earlier modeling this past week. Since the 500mb low shifts northward and weakens since we don't have a good West Based -NAO, there is nothing to keep the high there. If that low didn't exist, we could have deep northeasterly flow at least initially into the southeast, which would make this system a different beast entirely. In the end right now WNC and ETN should be the ones paying attention since ETN might just be far enough north to benefit from the dynamical cooling on the NE side of the 850mb low. WNC will have the added aid of adiabatic lift over the mountains which is a cooling process which can fight some of the WAA that will occur initially in the upper level low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Well, at this point I'm forced into a corner and am model-hugging the 21z SREF. Not good trends tonight and I'm not sure if anyone will see any significant snow outside of the mountains from this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 6z NAM definitely doesn't look like the bomb it once was. 1008 low in Northern gulf at hours 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Glad to see good run to run consistency from the NAM. It went from a monsoon to sprinkles in one run up to hr78. Edit: then it dumps over my area at hr84. Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Definitely a noticeable south and east trend on this run.... Weird. Low trails right on the coast of GA and SC. EDIT:1000 Low off the coast of SC at hour 84. Looks like it starts to bomb at this point. Tilted negative on 500 mb chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Ouch, but not suprising: IT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKE SNOW LOVERS OUTSIDE THE MTNS WILL BE DISAPPOINTED WITH THIS ONE AS THE MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR A WARMER SYSTEM AND A MORE WESTWARD PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE PIEDMONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THAT ELEVATIONS BELOW ABOUT 1500 FEET WILL BE NEARLY ALL RAIN FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW/SLEET AT ONSET TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THAT WOULD QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. HAVE RAISED SURFACE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT TO FOLLOW MODEL TRENDS. THUS...THE SNOW IS CONFINED TO THE MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE...WITH AMOUNTS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ELEVATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Glad to see good run to run consistency from the NAM. It went from a monsoon to sprinkles in one run up to hr78. Edit: then it dumps over my area at hr84. Weird. Yea it takes much longer for the 06z NAM go go negative tilt. This is actually a much more beneficial run for folks in WNC, because it goes neg tilt at almost the right time so that the 850mb passes by just to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 349 AM EST SUN JAN 23 2011 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE TODAY...THEN SLIP EAST AND WEAKEN ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPEN OVER TEXAS. THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY... AND SHOW THE TX LOW SLIPPING INTO THE NW GULF MONDAY NIGHT AND DEEPENING OFF THE LA COAST BY 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIFFER ON TUESDAY AS THE FASTER ECMWF TRACKS THE SURFACE LOW INTO SOUTH GA BY TUESDAY EVENING... THEN ALONG THE SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA`S COASTS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SLOWER GFS TRACKS THE LOW INTO SOUTH AL BY TUESDAY EVENING... THEN INTO EAST CENTRAL GA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH ITS TIMING AND TRACK...SO HAVE LEANED SLIGHTLY TOWARD ITS SOLUTION. HOWEVER...MUCH UNCERTAINTY HAS WARRANTED HOLDING ONTO LINGERING RAIN CHANCES OVER NE AND EAST CENTRAL GA ON WEDNESDAY. AS FOR THE WINTRY WEATHER THREAT... IT APPEARS THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL AID IN HOLDING AREA TEMPS MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE PEAK RAIN PERIODS... TUESDAY- TUESDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW INITIALLY OVER NORTH GA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE INITIAL RAIN SPREADS UP FROM THE SW...BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY MID TUESDAY MORNING. CURRENT THINKING IS THE GREATER MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY MORNING... AND THEREFORE HINDER ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTH GA. THE GREATER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE. AT THIS TIME... THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST POSSIBLY A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER NORTH AND PARTS OF CENTRAL GA TUESDAY NIGHT... BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER... CANNOT RULE OUT POSSIBLY 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GA WHERE WET BULB TEMPS COULD FALL BELOW FREEZING. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COULD LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A LIGHT SNOW THREAT ACROSS NORTH GA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTH...BUT THE DEPARTING MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED...AND THEREFORE... NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEARING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM CANADA. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET HIGHS FOR TODAY... THEN STAY STAYED CLOSE TO MAV NUMBERS FOR THE REMAINING PERIODS. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... NO CONCERNS AS GFS AND ECMWF SHOW HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS FOR THURSDAY... THEN MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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