Rankin5150 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Looking back through the thread, I spotted a post from Wow, which he mentions the possiblity of another HP sliding into upstate NY. FWIW...looking at these panels of the 0Z GFS it seems that either there is another high sliding in (you can see a touch of CAD on hr 78, as the low is bombing out. Also, it shows some CAD at hr 84. I know our BL temps are way up there with little chance to get to the temp we need in the layers for dynamical cooling. However, this deserves to be watched another couple of days before writing off. For all we know, the high over lower central Canada might shift over (or cut off) in the nick of time to provide just enough feed of colder air to provide the cold air necessary for snow or at least more than we were expecting. The dynamics of this system, along with climo and trends this winter season are in play as well. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_078l.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_084l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Looks like Robert is getting heavy snow on by 12z Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Looks like Robert is getting heavy snow on by 12z Wednesday. Yea very interesting run, would be good snow around then for folks just west of CLT verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Euro is much better for many in the south. Game still on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 This is much better than the GFS- still rain here until after 00Z but a much better surface low track and eventually colder 850 temps. And with a marginal temp setup it is better that any snow would be later at night. Snow for sure in north GA after about 06Z,maybe 2-4" Hey, quick question about 3/25/83 if you got a second...was that a storm that was supposed to start as snow and change to rain or the opposite? I dont know much about it other than it dropped 10" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Might be some upper level system that has yet to show up on the models and it jumps to the coastal energy off FL. If I remember correctly the earlier Euro runs had some piece of energy dive thru the TENN. Valley Looks about the same timing wise but around 84 850's crash fast from just west of CLT all the way down to CHS...very odd looking with this run, again a met needs to take the reigns cause I'm not sure what to make of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Hey, quick question about 3/25/83 if you got a second...was that a storm that was supposed to start as snow and change to rain or the opposite? I dont know much about it other than it dropped 10" here. No, the forecast was all rain, no chance of snow at all. I went from heavy rain to heavy snow later at lnght- we got 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Euro gives me 1.12 qpf 2m temp stays 0.8-0.5 for most of it but does go to 2.1 at one point 850's--- 0.2 to -1.1 Wouldn't that be mostly snow ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yea very interesting run, would be good snow around then for folks just west of CLT verbatim. Sounds like Dr yes to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 YES! See that Monkey is already working his magic! Euro gives me 1.12 qpf 2m temp stays 0.8-0.5 for most of it but does go to 2.1 at one point 850's--- 0.2 to -1.1 Wouldn't that be mostly snow ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Euro gives me 1.12 qpf 2m temp stays 0.8-0.5 for most of it but does go to 2.1 at one point 850's--- 0.2 to -1.1 Wouldn't that be mostly snow ? Sounds that way to me. Have not seen any maps tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 YES! I guess we will have to check in tomorrow now. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The euro is this || close from giving KFQD(Mark's neighborhood) all snow...it's that close for this area if the euro is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowflake29684 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 i am a weenie here but that was a good point with the last gfs run with the high in NY and now the Euro showing the High in NH wouldn't that cause SOME cold air to dam and help crash temps? just curious Looks about the same timing wise but around 84 850's crash fast from just west of CLT all the way down to CHS...very odd looking with this run, again a met needs to take the reigns cause I'm not sure what to make of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 i am a weenie here but that was a good point with the last gfs run with the high in NY and now the Euro showing the High in NH wouldn't that cause SOME cold air to dam and help crash temps? just curious No- I said this before and it bears repeating, The CAD is gone and has NO effect on this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Sorry for the somewhat IMBY but does the Euro show any precip left when the 850s crash for those of us further East in central NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Why are people so worried about the temps more than 48 hours out? There is plenty time for this to change. We have seen time and time again this winter places getting more snow than then models advertise. We have seen time and tie again when it was supposed to be too warm for snow, and the precip rate was enough to cool the air for snow. Happened with the Carolina crusher in Jan 2000. I think this could be like that, but not on such a big scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 how concerned should i be about temps for TYS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 No- I said this before and it bears repeating, The CAD is gone and has NO effect on this storm. What is steering this storm? Is it just a product of phase timing, strength, and trough location. If so, then it''s really a case of threadding the needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Just got back and looked at the models. ... GGEM, GFS, and ECMWF 0Z runs ALL Say it's going to be a all rain event in North Carolina... I tried to be optimistic about this storm, but it's just getting too warm for snowstorms now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Ok, here's what I was talking about. This is for KFQD(Rutherfordton, NC): This is through 6z wednesday: Temperature to start out with is 38º, 850's are at 0.5. Then temps fall to 0.5C at the height of the precip with the warmest 850 temp at 1.2C. .67 falls during the evening and early part of the night. From 6z wednesday on: The temperature is still at 33º with 850 temps of -2.1C. By then, an additional .31 has fallen during the late night/early morning hours. The temp does warm up to around 37 or 38 or so during the afternoon with .21 falling between 12z and 18z. It's almost like the euro is trying to tell us this is a rate dependent storm system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 how concerned should i be about temps for TYS? The main thing I'd be concerned about in Knoxville is the onset of the storm(18z Tuesday). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Just got back and looked at the models. ... GGEM, GFS, and ECMWF 0Z runs ALL Say it's going to be a all rain event in North Carolina... I tried to be optimistic about this storm, but it's just getting too warm for snowstorms now. The ECMWF certainly says none of the such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Why are people so worried about the temps more than 48 hours out? There is plenty time for this to change. We have seen time and time again this winter places getting more snow than then models advertise. We have seen time and tie again when it was supposed to be too warm for snow, and the precip rate was enough to cool the air for snow. Happened with the Carolina crusher in Jan 2000. I think this could be like that, but not on such a big scale. Jeez Brick. Now you're double posting in here and the banter thread. I don't think that was the idea when it was set up. http://www.americanw...post__p__341816 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freeze Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Hey, quick question about 3/25/83 if you got a second...was that a storm that was supposed to start as snow and change to rain or the opposite? I dont know much about it other than it dropped 10" here. Can't speak for the Charlotte area but in Athens, GA it was forecasted as an all rain event, just like what our 2 mets from Raleigh have been saying are going to happen here with the Tuesday/ Wednesday storm. Anyway, I was outside at midnight and it was raining at a rate between light to moderate with the wind blowing at about 15-20mph. I would say it was about 40 degrees at the time but you could tell it was dropping and getting cold. Didn't think anything of it and I went to bed around 1am, woke up at 7am and it was snowing like crazy. We ended up with about 8 inches in Athens. Really wild and caught the mets with their pants down. Imagine 8 inches in Athens, GA in late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The ECMWF certainly says none of the such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Just FYI, this is an all snow event depicted by the euro for other areas like Morganton, Asheville, Boone, etc. In fact, Asheville and Morganton probably get a tree snapping wet snow of around 10-12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Ok, here's what I was talking about. This is for KFQD(Rutherfordton, NC): This is through 6z wednesday: Temperature to start out with is 38º, 850's are at 0.5. Then temps fall to 0.5C at the height of the precip with the warmest 850 temp at 1.2C. .67 falls during the evening and early part of the night. From 6z wednesday on: The temperature is still at 33º with 850 temps of -2.1C. By then, an additional .31 has fallen during the late night/early morning hours. The temp does warm up to around 37 or 38 or so during the afternoon with .21 falling between 12z and 18z. It's almost like the euro is trying to tell us this is a rate dependent storm system. I assume its colder farther west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I assume its colder farther west? Oh yeah, you're definitely safe this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Just FYI, this is an all snow event depicted by the euro for other areas like Morganton, Asheville, Boone, etc. In fact, Asheville and Morganton probably get a tree snapping wet snow of around 10-12". Sorry for the IMBY question but what's the soundings look like in the N.Foothills (mwk) if you don't mind ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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