tnweathernut Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I will be surprised if the 0z Euro doesn't do something similar. Track should pummel the southern apps per most modeling now, but the cold air has really moved out quickly. i have to think someone to the northwest of the track of this low goes to snow, a heavy wet one. Such a rapidly deepening low should support that this time of year. Would love to see it cool just a little in the coming 24-36 hours. It's gone the wrong way long enough wrt temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Could this storm restabish our 50/50? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Hey TPS, In your opinion, how does this thing look for Birmngham, AL? No IMBY questions please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yes, an embarassing bust for the RAH NWS office, which honked for this storm in the medium/long range like none other I can remember. Not really close at RDU this run. Surface temps in the upper 30s and 850 temps of 4-5c throughout the event. A nice chilly, rain for us. As bnmdjm alluded to earlier, dendritic growth zone begins to dry out at 18z Wed. before our profile is able to support snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tngirl Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Here is what the local met is saying on his blog in Nashville. They have been correct on every storm this winter so maybe there is hope for middle TN. "The snow expected Sunday afternoon and evening will be a fast moving system that will probably drop up to an inch of snow in Nashville and generally the northern half of Middle Tennessee, with a dusting to the south. It may not seem like much, but if that verifies, it will be enough to cause problems around the area including more school closings (remember, we don’t make that decision, the school directors do!). On Monday afternoon, temps will be warming to the 40s, so any leftover precipitation then will be rain. The next system on Tuesday should be considerably bigger: On Tuesday morning, it is possible that the atmosphere will still be warm enough for the precip to begin as rain. By noon, though, the colder air should dive in as the Gulf Low seen below passes to our south. Then it changes to snow, and it should drop a decent accumulation, especially from Nashville east and southeast. Details remain to be seen. If it’s rain to snow, that always makes it more complicated. A lot depends on how far east the low has progressed before the changeover occurs. I feel confident that the eastern counties will see 3-4″ plus. The question is how far west it extends. I think Nashville will get an accumulating snow, but less than our east and southeastern counties. We’ll start putting solid numbers on that one over the next day or so. Here we go again!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Could this storm restabish our 50/50? It would be very transitory without blocking, sadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 00z Canadian coming west too. Now running up through AL. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/492_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'm looking for a major winter storm, cause Michelle @ 11:00 on WXII said it was coming. Gulf moisture COLD AIR ARRIVING ? What the heck Upper level support Spells Winter Storm. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yes, an embarassing bust for the RAH NWS office, which honked for this storm in the medium/long range like none other I can remember. I'm not going to criticize, but it will probably be quite a while before they do it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'm looking for a major winter storm, cause Michelle @ 11:00 on WXII said it was coming. Gulf moisture COLD AIR ARRIVING ? What the heck Upper level support Spells Winter Storm. lol LOL at the weekend weather folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow for dylan Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GUYS this storm may be UNPREDICTABLE to an EXTENT, if the temp drops 3degs we get a blizzard so who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GUYS this storm may be UNPREDICTABLE to an EXTENT, if the temp drops 3degs we get a blizzard so who knows? Problem is there is no cold air to support that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I can only get them for 18hrs. out ! He's back, Now let's see what he can do ! Can you check soundings for our area ? mwk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Looks to me like the GFS ens mean says, "what inland runner?"...map I have it's hard to tell though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'm looking for a major winter storm, cause Michelle @ 11:00 on WXII said it was coming. Gulf moisture COLD AIR ARRIVING ? What the heck Upper level support Spells Winter Storm. lol leave the Monkey Mojo there for the rest of the winter please. You jinxed us when you took it away.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GUYS this storm may be UNPREDICTABLE to an EXTENT, if the temp drops 3degs we get a blizzard so who knows? Are you in west Tennessee? If the low tracks to your west, you will not see any snow. Your temp is not going to be dropping but rising until the low passes to your east, and then, you may (but probably not) see some wrap around if you the low is strong enough to throw it down to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GUYS this storm may be UNPREDICTABLE to an EXTENT, if the temp drops 3degs we get a blizzard so who knows? You're a perfect candidate for 5 posts a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
philconnors Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 No IMBY questions please. What is IMBY, dude? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Also looking at the spaghetti plot for the track of the low on the ensemble members looks like there is pretty big spread...so who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I can only get them for 18hrs. out ! Well don't matter anyway looks like, On a good note at least we wont have to stay up late watching models for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 What is IMBY, dude? In My Back Yard....try to avoid asking questions about your city especially to mets who more then likely don't know about your specific climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow for dylan Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 no, north ga. and what about 5 posts a day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 What is IMBY, dude? Anybody got the bug spray? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Maybe we switched to EL NINO for this storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 leave the Monkey Mojo there for the rest of the winter please. You jinxed us when you yook it away.....lol Will do Sir, If he don't drown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 If you don't see it as just a rain storm, please provide some reasoning other than wishcasting. Laughing and saying it's all wrong because you are excited is hardly reasoning. Btw, just an FYI, the nam is not an outlier when it comes to rain vs snow for most reading this thread including rdu. For rdu, Euro likely isn't cold enough for most of it and at best shows a little at the tail end, gfs isn't cold enough, and the ggem isn't snow for rdu. So Please explain how the nam is an outlier in this regard? I quoted excited as in I was completely being sarcastic. In no way have I been excited for MBY, all models have literally left us out of the mix, even when CAD was going to set up and we had an earlier timing...now it's late and there are inland tracks in the mix? No thanks...I know this one looks done for me, but that wasn't my point. I'm not trying to wishcast...maybe I am wishcasting for the mountain folks? If that exists? My point was, the NAM agreeing with anything at this point does not convince me that there won't be snow in the western part of the state, so I leave that one out for now as a personal preference. All I've seen for the last few days is snow for the mountains and foothills, west of I-77...I can't allow a few model runs outside of 72hr to tell me we won't see wintry precip for this event, that's just me. I do understand that this storm is getting later and later, and many believe by the time it gets here we just will not have a source of cold air, so ALL RAIN. I understand, but I'm not going all-in yet. Edit: Also I'd like to add that since I've been absent today I've missed tons of model runs...so that adds to my ignorance, but my overall thoughts are the same despite the runs. Still a chance here for W NC...show me the same solutions tomorrow throughout the 0z suite as they were tonight and I WILL throw in the towel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 What is IMBY, dude? In My Back Yard (IMBY) Meaning....... asking what the weather will be like for your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
philconnors Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Anybody got the bug spray? Well, we cant all be from the NC piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 When can we actually expect the second s/w to be sampled in the US network and the models? Monday? I have to wonder if once it's sampled, we will see a progressive move back east given how fast the storms have moved west -> east this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tngirl Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Thanks for saying that. Been thinking it since I started following this forum. Has to be the most uptight and rudest forum I have ever seen and its about weather!! LOL Well, we cant all be from the NC piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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