burgertime Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The ensembles should be telling tonight...I also question how light the QPF is between two lows for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 This model run is trying it dang-est to produce a big time snow for the Mountains and maybe Foothills (West of HWY 321)... at hour 84 even with the surface low placement not the best, you got the best lift coming into Western North Carolina, a 500mb and 850mb track just under the mountains and the freezing line trying to wedge along the escarpment. All of the dynamics in play will be occuring during the overnight hours Tuesday into Wednesday. If we're gonna get somebody a snowstorm out of this, it will have to be with the dynamics at the perfect time of the day. Well, KMRN isnt a snow sounding, thats for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 It's actually real close for me this run ? 2m 850 qpf WED 06Z 26-JAN 1.1 1.3 1016 84 98 0.03 559 546 WED 12Z 26-JAN 0.2 0.7 1009 97 98 0.29 555 547 WED 18Z 26-JAN 0.8 -1.6 1003 99 97 0.63 546 543 THU 00Z 27-JAN 0.5 1.0 1008 95 79 0.22 551 545 THU 06Z 27-JAN -3.9 -1.2 1012 94 25 0.00 548 539 I don't know how to check soundings, But I think it's close for me ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 QPF for the western half looks to be over an inch...at least we can get a good rain out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Perfect track but too warm? Perhaps. Hard to judge at this point- the GFS has everything but cold enough air, I remember the 1983 storm was supposed to be too warm. A very close call. As I thought earlier, with an unfavorable NAO pattern, dynamics will have to suffice, and right now that is iffy but still possible, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 Well, KMRN isnt a snow sounding, thats for sure. I just looked at the sounding... dang it!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The ensembles should be telling tonight...I also question how light the QPF is between two lows for my area. Lol.. Two surface lows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GSO isn't too far from snow, but still showing rain with this run. Wouldn't take much. I remember this past monday night when we were supposed to have rain, the models were off about 4-5 degrees 12 hours out. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I just looked at the sounding... dang it!!! Aint even snow for AVL. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Anyone got the ukie yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Lol.. Two surface lows? Was I reading the map wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Seems like if we could get this thing to slow down another 12-24 hours, we might actually benefit from some colder air working back into the system. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Boone is even fighting off changing over at 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GAdawg Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I have to admit I have seen crazy models before but I think the last 24 to 36 hours has been unbelievable. For a storm to have shown so well for so long on any number of models to just crash as it has is really unreal. Well I think I will call it a night and maybe something will change tomorrow. As it currently looks though I believe all it will show is rain and really we do need that so good night all til tomorrow. I will be watching in the wings. PS. I am not diving off the cliff still have a tiny bit of hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Perfect track but too warm? Perhaps. Hard to judge at this point- the GFS has everything but cold enough air, I remember the 1983 storm was supposed to be too warm. A very close call. As I thought earlier, with an unfavorable NAO pattern, dynamics will have to suffice, and right now that is iffy but still possible, Yeah, I was really surprised to see such warm temps even in NW Ga. as the closed upper low goes right over Atl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Get that Monkey back, we need him! Being that we are on of the farthest points North and West we might just pull it off. This thing really starts to bomb around GA. So we might see crashing heights just as the storm gets going for our area. Close no matter what. I could see a cold 33 degree rain, or a 30 degree snow storm. It's actually real close for me this run ? 2m 850 qpf WED 06Z 26-JAN 1.1 1.3 1016 84 98 0.03 559 546 WED 12Z 26-JAN 0.2 0.7 1009 97 98 0.29 555 547 WED 18Z 26-JAN 0.8 -1.6 1003 99 97 0.63 546 543 THU 00Z 27-JAN 0.5 1.0 1008 95 79 0.22 551 545 THU 06Z 27-JAN -3.9 -1.2 1012 94 25 0.00 548 539 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I have to admit I have seen crazy models before but I think the last 24 to 36 hours has been unbelievable. For a storm to have shown so well for so long on any number of models to just crash as it has is really unreal. Well I think I will call it a night and maybe something will change tomorrow. As it currently looks though I believe all it will show is rain and really we do need that so good night all til tomorrow. I will be watching in the wings. PS. I am not diving off the cliff still have a tiny bit of hope. This actually happens every huge storm...but there is bigger chance for cold rain then other big storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Was just getting on and reading the board before I even looked at the models. Yeah it looks like two surface lows. That just looks weird. Was I reading the map wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Using the coordinates for Grandfather Mountain state park, they even arent all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 Boone is even fighting off changing over at 84 hours. Man...this is really heart-breaking looking at the soundings and how close it really is. I wonder if a slight eastward shift in the 500/850 mb track would help? BTW, just to show how unreliable the model generated snowfall acc. maps can be, it has Marion-Morganton-Lenoir getting about 6 inches while the high country gets a foot-plus. Goes to show how you need to look at all angles when it comes to making winter weather predictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Ukie is 1003 at 72 in west central AL........... should be well inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 If this keeps going west, we are going to have start thinking about severe thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tpsteffe Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Not really close at RDU this run. Surface temps in the upper 30s and 850 temps of 4-5c throughout the event. A nice chilly, rain for us. As bnmdjm alluded to earlier, dendritic growth zone begins to dry out at 18z Wed. before our profile is able to support snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 UKMET well west. About to cut through AL. Good grief. :gun_bandana: http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/110123043718.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Ukie is 1003 at 72 in west central AL........... should be well inland. I will be surprised if the 0z Euro doesn't do something similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Get that Monkey back, we need him! Being that we are on of the farthest points North and West we might just pull it off. This thing really starts to bomb around GA. So we might see crashing heights just as the storm gets going for our area. Close no matter what. I could see a cold 33 degree rain, or a 30 degree snow storm. He's back, Now let's see what he can do ! Can you check soundings for our area ? mwk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
philconnors Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 This actually happens every huge storm...but there is bigger chance for cold rain then other big storms. Upper Level low= weathermans woe...I am liking the look in Alabama for this one. We have somewhat gotten the shaft here in B-ham for the last 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 UKMET well west. About to cut through AL. Good grief. :gun_bandana: http://vortex.plymou...10123043718.gif Looks pretty close to the GFS with those two lows..just keeps the one low way west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 UKMET well west. About to cut through AL. Good grief. :gun_bandana: http://vortex.plymou...10123043718.gif Lakes Cutter!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I said this before, but should we start thinking about severe weather with this? Probably not with surface temps in the 30s, but who knows where this thing is ultimately going to track? Somebody is going to be warm-sectored before it's all over with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
philconnors Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Not really close at RDU this run. Surface temps in the upper 30s and 850 temps of 4-5c throughout the event. A nice chilly, rain for us. As bnmdjm alluded to earlier, dendritic growth zone begins to dry out at 18z Wed. before our profile is able to support snow. Hey TPS, In your opinion, how does this thing look for Birmngham, AL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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