tpsteffe Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 This GFS sounding illustrates why you cant just dismiss this storm: Date: 3.5 day AVN valid 6Z WED 26 JAN 11 Station: 35.31,-81.23 Latitude: 35.31 Longitude: -81.23 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 73 SFC 978 254 1.9 0.6 91 1.3 1.3 358 12 276.8 277.5 275.6 288.0 4.08 2 950 487 2.2 -0.9 80 3.0 0.9 14 25 279.4 280.0 276.6 289.9 3.77 3 900 924 1.5 -2.3 76 3.8 -0.1 26 30 283.0 283.6 278.2 293.1 3.57 4 850 1383 0.4 -2.5 81 2.9 -0.8 30 27 286.6 287.2 280.1 297.3 3.75 5 800 1868 -1.2 -1.7 97 0.4 -1.4 40 19 289.8 290.6 282.2 302.1 4.23 6 750 2383 -1.8 -2.0 98 0.2 -1.9 80 10 294.6 295.4 284.4 307.5 4.39 7 700 2930 -3.9 -4.1 98 0.3 -4.0 133 7 298.2 298.9 285.4 310.3 4.02 8 650 3513 -6.7 -7.1 97 0.4 -6.8 185 10 301.4 302.0 286.0 312.0 3.45 9 600 4135 -10.0 -11.0 92 1.0 -10.4 205 13 304.6 305.1 286.5 313.2 2.75 10 550 4800 -15.1 -16.0 93 0.9 -15.4 216 17 306.1 306.5 286.2 312.5 2.00 11 500 5511 -21.3 -21.9 95 0.6 -21.4 213 27 307.1 307.3 285.8 311.4 1.33 12 450 6280 -26.9 -27.2 97 0.3 -26.9 201 45 309.4 309.6 286.2 312.5 0.91 13 400 7119 -32.9 -33.3 96 0.4 -32.9 195 49 312.2 312.4 286.8 314.2 0.58 14 350 8045 -39.2 -45.8 50 6.6 -39.6 199 61 315.8 315.9 287.6 316.5 0.18 15 300 9090 -43.6 -62.9 10 19.3 -44.2 203 73 323.9 323.9 290.0 324.0 0.03 16 250 10302 -47.8 -62.5 17 14.7 -48.2 215 70 335.0 335.0 293.1 335.1 0.03 17 200 11763 -51.2 -65.3 17 14.0 -51.6 232 65 351.6 351.6 297.0 351.8 0.03 18 150 13606 -56.9 -71.4 14 14.6 -57.1 246 71 372.1 372.1 300.9 372.2 0.02 19 100 16150 -60.1 -84.0 3 23.9 -60.4 259 54 411.5 411.5 306.7 411.6 0.00 TRP 0 WND 0 If you get the precip rates the NAM is showing, you're going to flash over to heavy snow because of those dewpoint depressions. The problem is by 6z Wednesday those precip rates you speak of are gone. Little in the way of precip is progged after 6z. As a few others have mentioned, I also am not too optimistic for the CLT area in this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The problem is by 6z Wednesday those precip rates you speak of are gone. Little in the way of precip is progged after 6z. As a few others have mentioned, I also am not too optimistic for the CLT area in this storm. I think he was using the NAM's timing with the GFS soundings...but he can answer that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The other question, isn't the NAM the clear outlier right now? I mean that was a pretty crazy run compared to 6z, 12z and 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I think he was using the NAM's timing with the GFS soundings...but he can answer that one. 10-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The other question, isn't the NAM the clear outlier right now? I mean that was a pretty crazy run compared to 6z, 12z and 18z. 12z GGEM was an inland storm I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The other question, isn't the NAM the clear outlier right now? I mean that was a pretty crazy run compared to 6z, 12z and 18z. Man Burger, you are a weenie at heart! It is, and very drastically so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 The other question, isn't the NAM the clear outlier right now? I mean that was a pretty crazy run compared to 6z, 12z and 18z. That question should be answered fairly soon...I hope it is. I was gone during the daytime hours today...didn't the NAM actually make two jumps west...(12z and the latest run?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The problem is by 6z Wednesday those precip rates you speak of are gone. Little in the way of precip is progged after 6z. As a few others have mentioned, I also am not too optimistic for the CLT area in this storm. Welcome to the board, by the way. Thanks for the insight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Dang. It looks like the JMA on qpf - wish it were frozen. Also closely matches the JMA upper air pattern. 100 miles or so further west than the JMA. Given the NAMs slow bias, it probably has it about that distance in error west. Given the lack of cold air we have to work with, I welcome this kind of amped up solution. Now just need to work on that track a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The other question, isn't the NAM the clear outlier right now? I mean that was a pretty crazy run compared to 6z, 12z and 18z. Yes, NAM is the outlier right now. Very wild run and a pretty epic rainstorm for the SE. Makes you think about the record possibilities if we had a decent HP to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 BTW according to the snowfall maps I have access to, all of TN is in 2-4 with the north half in 4-8 and the western side a foot plus. W/ a 996 mb low sitting in central North Carolina, I would think that most of TN would score big w/ this since we would be in the northwest quadrant. I did see a warm nose go up the TN Valley. That's always a problem. But yes, huge run for mid-state and west in TN. I do have my doubts that this storm goes this far north before turning the corner. My guess (and it is only that) is that the NAM will be on the west side of guidance, possibly excluding the Canadian(edit). It's a perfect track for snow in all of TN really. The question is whether there will be enough cold air in place to benefit from the track. Our position in relation to the storm will help. Man, that thing is aimed right at State College. Reckon there are some folks spitting out their coffee right now. Burger, thanks for the numbers as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 12z GGEM was an inland storm I believe Yea knew the UKMet was as well wasn't it? And actually looking at the 12z NAM it was close too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 12z GGEM was an inland storm I believe So was 12z JMA, I would assume the mighty euro caves tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 And let me say this...if the 72 hr NAM was more correct last year, I'd have had a 30" total last winter. When the models show snow at 72, it usually doesn't snow. When they show rain at 72, it usually rains. I don't know why that is, but it sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 12z GGEM was an inland storm I believe Waaay inland. It closely resembles the 0z NAM. I discounted it as an outlier. Looks like it has company. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 honestly right now at this time range until the ukie and euro collapse then i think something in between is possible i dont see this thing cutting inland like the nam yet at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'm just waiting for the GFS to send our system to Cuba in a few minutes. The models overall lately seem to be going west and warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Finding it very difficult to see how models in a little over 30 hours went from the " Drop the bomb" song to this. From a potential blizzard to a small event back to a big event- but rain. Glad footbal is on tomorrow, that way I won't waste my time watching the pathetic model runs. Amazing. I am not upset that we may not get snow- it is the point of asking yourself- what is the point of models sometimes, how can they be THAT wrong- just look out the window. OK I am finished . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 If I were to have to lay down a track right now, which luckily I don't, I'd say the slp will track within 75 miles of RDU one way or the other. I realize with a track somewhere in that cone most in NC aren't going to be very happy at the end of the storm. I really don't see this storm hugging the coast, odds are it's going to be an inland runner with no supply of cold air. Lets just hope this thing trends better or we get some HP to come out of no where and reinforce us with some fresh cold air, obviously thats a wish that isnt going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthWake33 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 +1 Finding it very difficult to see how models in a little over 30 hours went from the " Drop the bomb" song to this. From a potential blizzard to a small event back to a big event- but rain. Glad footbal is on tomorrow, that way I won't waste my time watching the pathetic model runs. Amazing. I am not upset that we may not get snow- it is the point of asking yourself- what is the point of models sometimes, how can they be THAT wrong- just look out the window. OK I am finished . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 If another model (such as the NAM) follows suit of another model (such as the GGEM) towards one solution, there is no reason to believe that they are now favorable and the other models are now outliers. No reason to do so. I do not see this storm that far inland and I do not see it as just a rain event for NC. I'm at RDU so you know how "excited" I am for this one...just saying, no reason to throw in the towel if one outlier agrees with another...there is such thing as outliers. BTW I've been gone all day, what did I miss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The delay is what's going to kill our snow chances, If it was coming in Monday we would probably have enough cold air left behind. But sadly that is not the case It's 22 outside now so I'm going down in the teens tonight, Come Tuesday night I'll have to beg,steal, and borrow to get down to 35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 If another model (such as the NAM) follows suit of another model (such as the GGEM) towards one solution, there is no reason to believe that they are now favorable and the other models are now outliers. No reason to do so. I do not see this storm that far inland and I do not see it as just a rain event for NC. I'm at RDU so you know how "excited" I am for this one...just saying, no reason to throw in the towel if one outlier agrees with another...there is such thing as outliers. BTW I've been gone all day, what did I miss? Outliers often lead the way, especially when they shift to become the outlier. Having said that, I remember many times in the past when the NAM was the only model showing a storm far enough n/w to give us precip. It would usually correct back with consensus. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'm going to be honest here: I think from KCLT to the coast are in for a mostly rain event. It wouldn't be impossible to see snow at the tail end, but even that is a stretch. I have said since last weekend that this storm did not look good for us in central NC. Why? Because the west-based NAO that allowed our cold high pressures to lock in to the north was not present with this storm, thus the timing of any potential southern stream shortwaves had to link up almost perfectly with a high sliding offshore. Clearly, and is has been clear for days, the high and associated cold air advection is going to be over before this storm ever gets going for us in NC. Every model run, from every model shows this. So please, don't say that I'm just basing this off of one model run, because that couldn't be further from the truth. I'm recognizing that this pattern is not favorable for NC winter storms, and using situational awareness to see that there aren't overly cold temps anywhere in the southeast during the event which would allow "dynamics" to turn us over to heavy, wet snow. Now I won't absolutely say that no one from CLT to the coast won't see snow somewhere during the event, but the likelihood is slim in my eyes. Let's look at the facts: even with a perfectly modeled track, everyone from RDU east is mostly, if not entirely, rain from every model. Sure, there may be some hint that we could end as snow, but I have seen that song and dance before. It is likely the dendritic growth zone will dry out before RDU east would be cold enough to support snow. By 18z on Wednesday, the temperatures have soared back into the mid 40's from both the NAM and GFS. There is absolutely no evidence to support the fact that they are totally wrong...there isn't any big cold air to the north that could be advected in to change this fact. Folks, I really believe the writing is on the wall and there is no need to get overly hopeful about a pattern that isn't likely to yield a big snow for central and eastern NC (and even out to KCLT in my book). Lastly, I do not think that KCLT will fair much, if any better than KRDU. Why? The CAD wedge is not very well established by the time precip arrives, and with the amount of WAA associated with this low, the wedge should be eroded fairly quickly out to KCLT. Let's pretend the wedge holds, well 950 temps are forecasted to be at 6.0C+ on both the NAM and GFS by the time precip really starts coming in...which would still yield rain! The argument that both models are way too warm at this level doesn't hold much water in my view, as there isn't much colder temps to the north or west. Honestly, there is no way both of these models are going to blow temps across the entire eastern seaboard by that much. Now, by the end of the event I suppose a near isothermal layer could setup somewhere under the deformation band, and this area might have the potential for some very wet snow, with ratios of 5:1 at best, but I just don't see much support for it in the model soundings I have seen. I don't have access to the euro, so that is the one model that could be colder. Even so, I stand by everything I have said. Excellent post and pretty much mirrors my thoughts exactly. I think the idea that every model is blowing boundary layer temps by up to 10 degrees is being unrealistic to say the least. And of course tonight's nam's solution isn't even worth debating as far as rain vs snow. Although I don't take much stock in the long range nam and low tracks. That said there is way too many negatives vs positives with this storm right now imo. The only way I see us having a chance is if the low stays well to the south..really bombs and it bombs early. Otherwise, our favorite...a 30 something degree rainstorm is in store. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 21z SREF way south and east. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/sref/21/images/sref_bsp_072s.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman22 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 21z SREF way south and east. http://www.nco.ncep....ef_bsp_072s.gif Good for me, but still probably gonna have a temp problem . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 If another model (such as the NAM) follows suit of another model (such as the GGEM) towards one solution, there is no reason to believe that they are now favorable and the other models are now outliers. No reason to do so. I do not see this storm that far inland and I do not see it as just a rain event for NC. I'm at RDU so you know how "excited" I am for this one...just saying, no reason to throw in the towel if one outlier agrees with another...there is such thing as outliers. BTW I've been gone all day, what did I miss? If you don't see it as just a rain storm, please provide some reasoning other than wishcasting. Laughing and saying it's all wrong because you are excited is hardly reasoning. Btw, just an FYI, the nam is not an outlier when it comes to rain vs snow for most reading this thread including rdu. For rdu, Euro likely isn't cold enough for most of it and at best shows a little at the tail end, gfs isn't cold enough, and the ggem isn't snow for rdu. So Please explain how the nam is an outlier in this regard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I think his point might be that he's not wishcasting because he's unlikely to get snow anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Outliers often lead the way, especially when they shift to become the outlier. Having said that, I remember many times in the past when the NAM was the only model showing a storm far enough n/w to give us precip. It would usually correct back with consensus. TW The NAM hasnt shifted when you compare it against it's(Nam) previous runs. a shift is when a model deviates from its own previous run. Also earlier today the GFS didnt shift east, It trended toward all other guidance in depicting a fully phased miller A storm. Now that we have all models showing a wrapped up fully phased storm its time to nail down the exact track., which means its a wait and see matter as to which one is right and which ones have to blink, in regards to their forecasted track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I think his point might be that he's not wishcasting because he's unlikely to get snow anyway. I see what you mean now. Missed the sarcasm there..still the rest applies...just replace rdu with nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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