strongwxnc Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Just a massive warm jump compared to the 18 NAM. I'm still interested in what that low crossing Tampa is going to do. Heavy soaking rain according to the NAM...can't complain too much since we've needed that for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Wow CLT could be close to 2 inches of rain if this verifies...if only the cold air were there on this run it would be the most epic snow ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Sounds like the NAM portrays a brine flusher! Need to get that junk off the roads anyway so we can get a good freeze to the roads later. TW Of which has been applied to roads all over my area today. No suprise here with Nam. Still looks like previous runs of Nam. I'll pay attention to it out past 48 when euro and gfs , paticullarly euro sing the same tune. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 .75-1." amounts..... Damn cant a brother get some cold air...With this NAM setup.. @79 flooding in CLT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Just a massive warm jump compared to the 18 NAM. Yep kind of shocked how the NAM went, I figured it would at least keep us still on the edge......if this verifies someone in NC is going to be under water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 If this is the start of a trend in the 0z model suite, then it may be a bloddy mess by midnight... Dynamics and time of day is looking like really huge factors now for ANYBODY to get wintry weather from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 EDIT: check that I would be just north of the warm front on the Northeast side before it passes nearly directly overhead (verbatim look). Coastal SC could touch the warm sector on that run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 This GFS sounding illustrates why you cant just dismiss this storm: Date: 3.5 day AVN valid 6Z WED 26 JAN 11 Station: 35.31,-81.23 Latitude: 35.31 Longitude: -81.23 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 73 SFC 978 254 1.9 0.6 91 1.3 1.3 358 12 276.8 277.5 275.6 288.0 4.08 2 950 487 2.2 -0.9 80 3.0 0.9 14 25 279.4 280.0 276.6 289.9 3.77 3 900 924 1.5 -2.3 76 3.8 -0.1 26 30 283.0 283.6 278.2 293.1 3.57 4 850 1383 0.4 -2.5 81 2.9 -0.8 30 27 286.6 287.2 280.1 297.3 3.75 5 800 1868 -1.2 -1.7 97 0.4 -1.4 40 19 289.8 290.6 282.2 302.1 4.23 6 750 2383 -1.8 -2.0 98 0.2 -1.9 80 10 294.6 295.4 284.4 307.5 4.39 7 700 2930 -3.9 -4.1 98 0.3 -4.0 133 7 298.2 298.9 285.4 310.3 4.02 8 650 3513 -6.7 -7.1 97 0.4 -6.8 185 10 301.4 302.0 286.0 312.0 3.45 9 600 4135 -10.0 -11.0 92 1.0 -10.4 205 13 304.6 305.1 286.5 313.2 2.75 10 550 4800 -15.1 -16.0 93 0.9 -15.4 216 17 306.1 306.5 286.2 312.5 2.00 11 500 5511 -21.3 -21.9 95 0.6 -21.4 213 27 307.1 307.3 285.8 311.4 1.33 12 450 6280 -26.9 -27.2 97 0.3 -26.9 201 45 309.4 309.6 286.2 312.5 0.91 13 400 7119 -32.9 -33.3 96 0.4 -32.9 195 49 312.2 312.4 286.8 314.2 0.58 14 350 8045 -39.2 -45.8 50 6.6 -39.6 199 61 315.8 315.9 287.6 316.5 0.18 15 300 9090 -43.6 -62.9 10 19.3 -44.2 203 73 323.9 323.9 290.0 324.0 0.03 16 250 10302 -47.8 -62.5 17 14.7 -48.2 215 70 335.0 335.0 293.1 335.1 0.03 17 200 11763 -51.2 -65.3 17 14.0 -51.6 232 65 351.6 351.6 297.0 351.8 0.03 18 150 13606 -56.9 -71.4 14 14.6 -57.1 246 71 372.1 372.1 300.9 372.2 0.02 19 100 16150 -60.1 -84.0 3 23.9 -60.4 259 54 411.5 411.5 306.7 411.6 0.00 TRP 0 WND 0 If you get the precip rates the NAM is showing, you're going to flash over to heavy snow because of those dewpoint depressions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 NAM had CLT area and points west to around the Apps in 1.50 to 1.75 QPF ...just to the south of CLT is in 1.75 - 2.0 of QPF....man if we could this QPF with the temps cold enough game over! Anyways lets see what the GFS and Euro have to say, this isn't the nail yet..I'm still a true weenie and won't believe until the day before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Well, this run does suck for most- 700mb and surface low way too far north- in 1983 the surface low went over north FL this run has it over ATL. I hope that this is just a NAM hiccup... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Where is Robert when you need him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yep kind of shocked how the NAM went, I figured it would at least keep us still on the edge......if this verifies someone in NC is going to be under water. Should we build an ark and grab two of every animal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Congrats to Huntington, WV! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'm going to be honest here: I think from KCLT to the coast are in for a mostly rain event. It wouldn't be impossible to see snow at the tail end, but even that is a stretch. I have said since last weekend that this storm did not look good for us in central NC. Why? Because the west-based NAO that allowed our cold high pressures to lock in to the north was not present with this storm, thus the timing of any potential southern stream shortwaves had to link up almost perfectly with a high sliding offshore. Clearly, and is has been clear for days, the high and associated cold air advection is going to be over before this storm ever gets going for us in NC. Every model run, from every model shows this. So please, don't say that I'm just basing this off of one model run, because that couldn't be further from the truth. I'm recognizing that this pattern is not favorable for NC winter storms, and using situational awareness to see that there aren't overly cold temps anywhere in the southeast during the event which would allow "dynamics" to turn us over to heavy, wet snow. Now I won't absolutely say that no one from CLT to the coast won't see snow somewhere during the event, but the likelihood is slim in my eyes. Let's look at the facts: even with a perfectly modeled track, everyone from RDU east is mostly, if not entirely, rain from every model. Sure, there may be some hint that we could end as snow, but I have seen that song and dance before. It is likely the dendritic growth zone will dry out before RDU east would be cold enough to support snow. By 18z on Wednesday, the temperatures have soared back into the mid 40's from both the NAM and GFS. There is absolutely no evidence to support the fact that they are totally wrong...there isn't any big cold air to the north that could be advected in to change this fact. Folks, I really believe the writing is on the wall and there is no need to get overly hopeful about a pattern that isn't likely to yield a big snow for central and eastern NC (and even out to KCLT in my book). Lastly, I do not think that KCLT will fair much, if any better than KRDU. Why? The CAD wedge is not very well established by the time precip arrives, and with the amount of WAA associated with this low, the wedge should be eroded fairly quickly out to KCLT. Let's pretend the wedge holds, well 950 temps are forecasted to be at 6.0C+ on both the NAM and GFS by the time precip really starts coming in...which would still yield rain! The argument that both models are way too warm at this level doesn't hold much water in my view, as there isn't much colder temps to the north or west. Honestly, there is no way both of these models are going to blow temps across the entire eastern seaboard by that much. Now, by the end of the event I suppose a near isothermal layer could setup somewhere under the deformation band, and this area might have the potential for some very wet snow, with ratios of 5:1 at best, but I just don't see much support for it in the model soundings I have seen. I don't have access to the euro, so that is the one model that could be colder. Even so, I stand by everything I have said. Excellent, excellent post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Cold Rain(I think...) said it earlier. There is absolutely nothing from stopping this from going inland. 6 hrs ago, I wasn't sure if the qpf would get here. Now, it's a sloppy mess in NE TN. I don't think the models are through w/ this yet. Personally, and I've read much of the thread, I still think this could wrap up into a big storm per the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tgarren Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Of which has been applied to roads all over my area today. No suprise here with Nam. Still looks like previous runs of Nam. I'll pay attention to it out past 48 when euro and gfs , paticullarly euro sing the same tune. yeah it moved the surface low 250 miles west so of course it should be take as the gospel truth... still doubt i will see anything nice my way but maybe GSO will get something and work will close early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Well, this run does suck for most- 700mb and surface low way too far north- in 1983 the surface low went over north FL this run has it over ATL. I hope that this is just a NAM hiccup... It really all depends on the grouping of vortmax's in BC right now and how they interact. I don't think we'll have that really nailed down until at least within 36 to 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 According to the NAM snowfall maps western TN, MS, and Hendersonville NC west are the big winners on snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 If you take the long range NAM to be the gospel truth, I guess it's over. Not like the long range NAM has ever been known to somehow both suck and blow simultaneously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 100% agree. Going to be a nowcast event...Unless, as Dan noted, the NAM is the start of a new trend. However, with such a large warm jump in one run....Need to see more. It really all depends on the grouping of vortmax's in BC right now and how they interact. I don't think we'll have that really nailed down until at least within 36 to 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 It really all depends on the grouping of vortmax's in BC right now and how they interact. I don't think we'll have that really nailed down until at least within 36 to 48 hrs. Nothing seems to have been nailed down here within 24 hours at all this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 So, at the end of the run, we have a 996MB low sitting practically on top of RDU. Quite the change and I must say I was NOT expecting this huge of a westward jog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Well, this run does suck for most- 700mb and surface low way too far north- in 1983 the surface low went over north FL this run has it over ATL. I hope that this is just a NAM hiccup... The Ukmet has sniffed out the shift in the storm more than once this winter. Tnweathernut has kept loose tabs on it. When it shifted at 12z, I became a little concerned. Now, even in E TN, that would be rain according to the NAM. I wouldn't rule it out, but I would be surprised to see an Apps runner. HPC even hinted that the Canadian was a little the west of their thinking if I remember correctly. How west can this go? As absurd as it sounds, could it cut west of the Apps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 And let me say this...if the 72 hr NAM was more correct last year, I'd have had a 30" total last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Nothing seems to have been nailed down here within 24 hours at all this year. Yep going to be a nowcast. Still you gotta admit that is a pretty freaking crazy run even for rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Dang. It looks like the JMA on qpf - wish it were frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Nothing seems to have been nailed down here within 24 hours at all this year ever. Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 Oh well..that was an interesting run cycle to say the least. I'm gonna down a few beers and be back in 30 for the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Dang. It looks like the JMA on qpf - wish it were frozen. BTW according to the snowfall maps I have access to, all of TN is in 2-4 with the north half in 4-8 and the western side a foot plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 At 84 hours RDU has a 950 temp of 54F! This may be one of those times that TWC is right. They upped our temps from the lower/mid 30's to 44 now on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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