Marion_NC_WX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Here ya go guys and gals... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Per HPC...Pretty much sums up our day here on the board... VALID 12Z TUE JAN 25 2011 - 12Z SAT JAN 29 2011 12Z MODEL UPDATE... ALONG THE EAST COAST... THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE JOINED THE BANDWAGON OF THE OTHER 00Z GUIDANCE THROUGH ABOUT 00Z/WED WITH THE EMPHASIS ON THE SOUTHERN ENERGY THROUGH THE GULF STATES. IT THEN TAKES THE LOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD WELL OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK BEFORE REJOINING THE CONSENSUS NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. THE 12Z CANADIAN CONTINUES ITS WESTERN TRACK FROM WESTERN NC THROUGH DC THEN TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 12Z/THU. 12Z UKMET SHIFTED ITS TRACK A BIT TO THE WEST OF ITS 00Z RUN AND IS SLOWER AS WELL. 12Z GEFS MEAN SLOWED DOWN AS WELL AND MOVED BACK TOWARD THE COAST BUT IS STILL QUICKER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES ITS WOBBLE EAST OF EARLIER RUNS AND NOW TAKES THE LOW VERY NEAR THE BENCHMARK BY 00Z/THU. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS WINTER... THESE COASTAL SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN ANYTHING BUT EASY TO FORECAST. EARLIER FORECAST WAS WELL WITHIN THE SPREAD SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE FINAL ISSUANCE. SYSTEM DROPPING OUT OF CANADA LATE NEXT WEEK SHOWS GOOD 12Z GEFS MEAN AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SO WILL LEAVE WELL ENOUGH ALONE THERE AS WELL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yep. And the main part, imo, is in bold below... indeed :popcorn:and maybe Per HPC...Pretty much sums up our day here on the board... VALID 12Z TUE JAN 25 2011 - 12Z SAT JAN 29 2011 THESE COASTAL SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN ANYTHING BUT EASY TO FORECAST. EARLIER FORECAST WAS WELL WITHIN THE SPREAD SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE FINAL ISSUANCE. SYSTEM DROPPING OUT OF CANADA LATE NEXT WEEK SHOWS GOOD 12Z GEFS MEAN AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SO WILL LEAVE WELL ENOUGH ALONE THERE AS WELL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Here is a post from frank Frank Strait 3 hours ago, with regards to the 0Z Euro run. "Meanwhile, the 0Z Euro is showing probably 7 inches of snow in Charlotte and over a foot in the mountains." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Model Track Trend* -NAO 50/50 Low Cold Air Feed Euro Coastal East NO NO NO Ukie Inland West NO NO NO GFS Coastal Storm from no storm NO NO NO GGEM Inland West NO NO NO Nogaps Inland West NO NO NO * Trends given from 0Z to 12Z Good luck, everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 SREF mean continues to say "what storm" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Since you are putting this out, maybe you should comment on areas effected by these trends. Or are you speaking of the eastern 2/3 of NC? Thanks man!!! Model Track Trend* -NAO 50/50 Low Cold Air Feed Euro Coastal East NO NO NO Ukie Inland West NO NO NO GFS Coastal Storm from no storm NO NO NO GGEM Inland West NO NO NO Nogaps Inland West NO NO NO * Trends given from 0Z to 12Z Good luck, everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 KGSP has spoken in Afternoon AFD: OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE MTNS AND THE IMMEDIATE FOOTHILLS CONTINUES TO INCREASE. THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE RAIN SNOW LINE...HOWEVER...IS STILL IN QUESTION. I/VE WARMED THINGS UP A LITTLE...WHICH CUTS SNOW TOTALS BACK TO A COUPLE INCHES ALONG A LINE FROM GREENVILLE TO STATESVILLE...WITH MAINLY RAIN DOWN TOWARD CHARLOTTE. IF THE WARMER NAM/UKMET VERIFY...THIS WILL WORK OUT FAIRLY WELL. IF THE COOLER ECMWF WORKS OUT...THE HEAVY SNOW WOULD FALL FURTHER EAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Model Track Trend* -NAO 50/50 Low Cold Air Feed Euro Coastal East NO NO NO Ukie Inland West NO NO NO GFS Coastal Storm from no storm NO NO NO GGEM Inland West NO NO NO Nogaps Inland West NO NO NO * Trends given from 0Z to 12Z Good luck, everyone! and this means what ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 For Cheez......above 50% hahaha FFC update my zone forecast for Dalton,GA Monday Night: A chance of rain and snow, mainly after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 36. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Tuesday: Rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 41. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Tuesday Night: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Since you are putting this out, maybe you should comment on areas effected by these trends. Or are you speaking of the eastern 2/3 of NC? Thanks man!!! It's hard to say. The Euro and GFS are the only coastals, so if anyone does, western 1/3 of NC back to the SW in to SC and N. GA and E. TN have the best shot at good snow. Everything east of there is junk, if it's not entirely wet. The inland models take the good snows even farther west. The water's too muddy with this whole thing. It's not clean at all. But because there's no good cold air source feeding the storm and because there's no blocking, I give the inland tracks more merit. Even if the coastal verifies, the thing is really going to need to bomb quickly to make it more clear cut snow, even for a lot of the western areas. Not saying no snow for them, but it's just not clear cut. Relying on dynamic cooling makes for a very murky forecast with high bust potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 and this means what ? The formatting got jumbled when I posted. It looked much neater in the big white box before I hit the Post button. Anyway, it's just showing the trends from the 0Z to 12Z runs of those models, so we can all see which way the track shifted over a 12 hr model run cycle. Some of the shifts, like the Ukie, were quite substantial, while the Euro slipped east much less dramatically. Bottom line is, don't ride any model to the finish line yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Good call! From where we are right now... KGSP has spoken in Afternoon AFD: OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE MTNS AND THE IMMEDIATE FOOTHILLS CONTINUES TO INCREASE. THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE RAIN SNOW LINE...HOWEVER...IS STILL IN QUESTION. I/VE WARMED THINGS UP A LITTLE...WHICH CUTS SNOW TOTALS BACK TO A COUPLE INCHES ALONG A LINE FROM GREENVILLE TO STATESVILLE...WITH MAINLY RAIN DOWN TOWARD CHARLOTTE. IF THE WARMER NAM/UKMET VERIFY...THIS WILL WORK OUT FAIRLY WELL. IF THE COOLER ECMWF WORKS OUT...THE HEAVY SNOW WOULD FALL FURTHER EAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Thanks! and I agree on the bold statement below! Got to be in the right place at the right time.. It's hard to say. The Euro and GFS are the only coastals, so if anyone does, western 1/3 of NC back to the SW in to SC and N. GA and E. TN have the best shot at good snow. Everything east of there is junk, if it's not entirely wet. The inland models take the good snows even farther west. The water's too muddy with this whole thing. It's not clean at all. But because there's no good cold air source feeding the storm and because there's no blocking, I give the inland tracks more merit. Even if the coastal verifies, the thing is really going to need to bomb quickly to make it more clear cut snow, even for a lot of the western areas. Not saying no snow for them, but it's just not clear cut. Relying on dynamic cooling makes for a very murky forecast with high bust potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 At this point, I agree with KGSP. Heavy snow in mountains and NW of I-40. Rain and fail again down in Charlotte southern NC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 shortwave looks a little further west at 36 on the 18z NAM and stronger with the northern wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 At this point, I agree with KGSP. Heavy snow in mountains and NW of I-40. Rain and fail again down in Charlotte southern NC area. I'm south of I-40 and they still paint snow here so i'm not sure what you're talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 After looking at the ECMWF soundings for RDU it looks like this Though hour 90 6z Wed 0.4 inches of qpf has fallen and it looks to be all rain. Euro surface temps are in the upper 30s, the sounding is above freezing up to near 775mb, it is nearly isothermal though at around 1.5C or so from 900 too 775mb. At hour 96, 12z Wed, it looks like an all snow sounding. Still almost saturated in the dendritic growth region, below freezing from say 950 up, Euro surface temps are around 36F. 0.56 inches of QPF fell between 6z-12z Wed, so I would imagine there is a change to snow sometime in between there. By 18z Wed hour 102, the precip has ended and it must end shortly after 12z with clearing and the model then shoots the temp up into the low 40s. So taken literally, I would say of the 1.24 inches of QPF at RDU, the first 0.4 is definitely rain, the last 0.28 is likely snow, with the middle 0.56 rain changing to snow. SO there would likely be accumulating snow at RDU from this and possibly a few inches. The 925mb temps are above 0 across all of the Carolinas and Georgia at hour 90 and essentially remain that way at hour 96 except for the northern/northeast piedmont where this is likely because of strong UVVx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yes, but NW I-40 takes out a great chunk of wnc. Thinking more the stated line that noted. Greenville to Statesville. More of a ra/sn mix s of 40 into the middle of southern foothills. Let see were she goes At this point, I agree with KGSP. Heavy snow in mountains and NW of I-40. Rain and fail again down in Charlotte southern NC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 After looking at the ECMWF soundings for RDU it looks like this Though hour 90 6z Wed 0.4 inches of qpf has fallen and it looks to be all rain. Euro surface temps are in the upper 30s, the sounding is above freezing up to near 775mb, it is nearly isothermal though at around 1.5C or so from 900 too 775mb. At hour 96, 12z Wed, it looks like an all snow sounding. Still almost saturated in the dendritic growth region, below freezing from say 950 up, Euro surface temps are around 36F. 0.56 inches of QPF fell between 6z-12z Wed, so I would imagine there is a change to snow sometime in between there. By 18z Wed hour 102, the precip has ended and it must end shortly after 12z with clearing and the model then shoots the temp up into the low 40s. So taken literally, I would say of the 1.24 inches of QPF at RDU, the first 0.4 is definitely rain, the last 0.28 is likely snow, with the middle 0.56 rain changing to snow. SO there would likely be accumulating snow at RDU from this and possibly a few inches. The 925mb temps are above 0 across all of the Carolinas and Georgia at hour 90 and essentially remain that way at hour 96 except for the northern/northeast piedmont where this is likely because of strong UVVx Thanks Allan for the info!! BTW, I've got the 18z nam out to 54 and so far it looks close the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 By the way ECMWF Ens mean is a little east of the operational with teh surface features and also drier. Looks like 0.5 to 0.75 from RDU to FAY east for eastern NC and SC. 0.25 to 0.5 for western and cetnral NC most of SC, all of GA, AL, eastern 2/3 of TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 So the bomb looks to have already dropped off the planet ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Thanks for the update Allan. If the Euro turns out to be the correct call, that .56 changeover range can make a big difference if the changeover happens sooner in the .56 than later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 After looking at all the 12z op models. It seems the ukie is the middle ground. It has a track 100 miles or so inside the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 This is going to be a messy wet snow for those that do get snow outside of the mountains, and will probably not stick to the roads at all unless we get some heavy rates or its at night. Im not too excited for this storm as far as accumualtions here in CLT. Even with this last storm, we were in the upper 20s the entire storm here in charlotte and the snow failed to really stick to most paved surfaces. Good luck with surface temps in th 31-33 range (and thats being generous given most model output). Obviously its not set in stone but I dont see how this changes enough to signifcantly affect anyone outside of the mountains/ north of I-40 Just some random thoughts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Could deal with that here in wnc... After looking at all the 12z op models. It seems the ukie is the middle ground. It has a track 100 miles or so inside the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 This is going to be a messy wet snow for those that do get snow outside of the mountains, and will probably not stick to the roads at all unless we get some heavy rates or its at night. Im not too excited for this storm as far as accumualtions here in CLT. Just with this last storm, we were in the upper 20s the entire storm here in charlotte and the snow failed to really stick to most paved surfaces. Good luck with surface temps in th 31-33 range (and thats being generous given most model output). Obviously its not set in stone but I dont see how this changes enough to signifcantly affect anyone outside of the mountains/ north of I-40 Just some random thoughts... I disagree. Ground temps will be cold enough, combined with heavy rates which is key, that roads can become covered even with low 30s. Seen i5 happen too many times to not feel that way. Without heavy rates though, you are right, it would have a hard time accumulating on the roads. If it snows, will have a heavy wet snow however that will stick everything else I believe even if not the roads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 REA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 335 PM EST SAT JAN 22 2011 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... NO WEATHER PROBLEMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. THE GFS/NAM ARE SIMILAR WITH FORECASTING A SHORT WAVE AND MOISTURE THAT WILL AFFECT MAINLY N GA WITH LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE WAVE WILL BE RATHER FAST MOVING WITH ONLY 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE FOR THE NE MOUNTAINS EARLY MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SMALL SNOW ACCUMUALATIONS. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DIEING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST AND GULF OF MEXICO LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE TO S OF LA. MODELS SEEM CONSISTENT WITH SUGGESTING THE CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR FAR N GA MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY NIGHT POPS ABOUT 30 PERCENT FOR N AND W GA. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND NEAR TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MOS NUMBERS SEEMED TOO WARM FOR THE MONDAY HIGH`S AND FAVORED THE FORECAST HIGHS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODELS DIFFER ENOUGH FOR TUESDAY THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THE FORECAST. THE NAM TRACKS THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL GA AND THIS TRACK WILL ALLOW FOR NEARLY ALL RAIN ACROSS N GA. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN TRACK THE SURFACE LOW FARTHER S THAT SUGGESTS THAT RAIN OR SNOW COULD DEVELOP OVER FAR N GA WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE BY DAYS END TUESDAY. THE PASSING SURFACE LOW AND UPPER SYSTEM BRINGS MORE COLD AIR IN QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT FAVORING A CHANGE OVER OR CONTINUATION OF SNOW CHANCES FOR N GA AND A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL GA. THIS TIME FRAME WILL ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ACCUMULATIONS. GFS/EUROPEAN SIMILAR WITH ENDING PRECIP CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND KEEPING THINGS MAINLY DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS ARE INDICATING AN UPPER TROUGH PASSING BY LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED. BOTH MODELS BRING WHAT APPEARS TO BE A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Looks to me that the 18z nam is still going to be inland. The trough is almost neutral in E. Tx @ hr 69. The HP is already out in the atlantic around hr 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 the nam is probably going to be pretty amped up this run. h5 is already netrual starting to go negative over LA at hr 72. explosion of precip as well from 66 to 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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