jburns Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 We are still more than 48 hours away and people are throwing in the towel because the models say right now the temps are too warm. That's right now. This thing has Jan 2000 written all over it, but not on that big of a scale. If the precip rate is big enough, the temps fall, and we get snow. They were not calling for snow the night of the storm for that one. Not only that but no one forecasted the last ice age. This thing has 28,456 BC all over it. Caught everyone by surprise. Schools were out for 14,357 years. Wasn't a loaf of bread or jug of milk anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 If we're having a civil war, I want JBurns on my side. He's the only one here that might remember. That would be critical for strategy purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 If we're having a civil war, I want JBurns on my side. He's the only one here that might remember. That would be critical for strategy purposes. This is your lucky day. I live 12 miles west of US220. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 If we're having a civil war, I want JBurns on my side. He's the only one here that might remember. That would be critical for strategy purposes. Hence my use of 220 as the dividing line, I think we also pick up NCSNOW along with Big Frosty and Powerstroke, so we'll have the advantage of large trucks on our side! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fyredog28 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'll contribute fire trucks to the cause. That's about all I got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Hence my use of 220 as the dividing line, I think we also pick up NCSNOW along with Big Frosty and Powerstroke, so we'll have the advantage of large trucks on our side! Many may not know this but Big Frosty's ancestor, Big Oog, was the first to tie a tree trunk across a mammoth's tusks and use it to clear a path to the water hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif All is not lost! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 http://www.hpc.ncep....psnow_gt_04.gif All is not lost! Rosie, You've always had the best chance, and you always will cause you live in the mountains! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 http://www.hpc.ncep....psnow_gt_04.gif All is not lost! See how the 10% and 40% lines are right on top of each other. That's because the snow depicted is dependent on elevation. No one here ever said that the mountains didn't have a good chance of some decent snows. Nothing has changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Rosie, You've always had the best chance, and you always will cause you live in the mountains! More than mountains in there! According to WSB only NE GA is in there. Boils down to we know what we get when it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I started laughing out loud when I looked at the weather models this morning. Apps runner to OTS. WHAT!!!!????? LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I started laughing out loud when I looked at the weather models this morning. Apps runner to OTS. WHAT!!!!????? LOL. Someone made a post last night to calm the weenies about the 00z GFS ensembles being east of the OP. Looks like they passed it on to 06z.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Advice: If you want to see and enjoy snow, get away from behind the computer screen and drive the 1 hour to the NC High Country ABOVE 4500 feet (not Boone). There is plenty of snow for winter sports. Don't let your life pass you by in front of a computer screen. Go out and make some memories and get some exercise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I think we can call this storm the Carolina Crusher of Dreams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I don't like some of the new people. I second this statement Agreed, seems like they come out of the wood work when a storm is coming, and it gets old, because it is the same imby crap.. Rinse and repeat, not trying to be a douche or anything , but they should institute the "new member" tag again and 5 post'em for the first 30 days, or 100 posts, but something needs to change, rant over It is getting old....*sigh* There are so many nasty posters whining and b*tching, my ignore feature can't keep up Good thing you're not. It seems I have the douche badge for now. I still you..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The models are all over the place with this. No one knows what is going to happen. Anyone can say there is a chance of snow or rain and have a 50/50 shot of getting it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The models are all over the place with this. No one knows what is going to happen. Anyone can say there is a chance of snow or rain and have a 50/50 shot of getting it right. Heck, I don't even know what to think now. I'm willing to bet that it would be a mix at times, but mostly rain. The snowophile in me feels shafted, but the realist in me doesn't want my kids' school year extended. We're out of snow days. But I've hinted before about how this winter feels like I've hit five out of six lottery numbers while my friend who lives in the next state over (who never, ever plays the lottery) hit all six numbers. Sure, I won a nice Christmas snow, but -- dadgummit -- I could have had a freakin' blizzard if things had lined up right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Oh wow how surprising guys...I'm sure most were ready to make call maps because there was such agreement yesterday they didn't need to see any other runs. I'm shocked models flipped 60+ hours out from the storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 it looks like this is going to be a track dependent storm - if you are in the exact right spot with the path of the storm, you could receive some heavy snow. otherwise, outside of the mountains its probably mostly rain (or at least little accumulation). some of us will be very happy, and most of us will probably not (based on this run) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I have given up on the GFS as a reliable short or long term model. It joins the JMA/Nogaps in the trash bin. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_228l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Looks like rain for everybody unless you live in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The models are all over the place with this. No one knows what is going to happen. Anyone can say there is a chance of snow or rain and have a 50/50 shot of getting it right. Then lets have some fun. One inch of snow in Raleigh as measured at the airport. I'll take under. Name the bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Does anybody have a link to the NWS description of the February 2004 storm? I'm very curious to understand what type of storm that was and how it came about (synoptic setup) . Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Let's bow our heads and pray for snow. Oh, dear God, thank you, you are such a good God to us. A kind and gentle and accommodating God, and we thank you oh sweet, sweet Lord of hosts for the smörgåsbord you have so aptly laid at our table this day, and each day, by day, day by day, by day oh dear Lord three things we pray to love Thee more dearly, to see Thee more clearly, to follow Thee more nearly, day, by day, by day. Amen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyespygawx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Does anybody have a link to the NWS description of the February 2004 storm? I'm very curious to understand what type of storm that was and how it came about (synoptic setup) . Thanks. http://www.dnr.sc.gov/climate/sco/Publications/winter_Feb25_27_2004.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 http://www.dnr.sc.go...b25_27_2004.php Look at how much Pickens and Oconee Counties in upstate SC got. That storm still gives me nightmares. And people living in Charlotte say they're in the screw zone. You don't know what a screw zone is until you see upstate SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Look at how much Pickens and Oconee Counties in upstate SC got. That storm still gives me nightmares. And people living in Charlotte say they're in the screw zone. You don't know what a screw zone is until you see upstate SC. you and me both. that was a horrible storm....i ended up with snow, but this was the time where just up the rode there really were two digit amounts! the forecast here was for 10, the redevelopment happened just the east. it was awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyespygawx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Look at how much Pickens and Oconee Counties in upstate SC got. That storm still gives me nightmares. And people living in Charlotte say they're in the screw zone. You don't know what a screw zone is until you see upstate SC. LOL. Seemed to make out ok in the Jan. 10-11 storm. Went through there on way to Cowpens last weekend, and plenty of snow still around. I'm in Oconee Co., GA and we've been in a sweet spot the last few years (March 2009 was awesome). Must be the location in regards to the mountains. The Xmas storm dumped a lot of rain to start with, never thought it would switch over, but it was cool to eventually have snow in December. I wish the upcoming storm would be snow again, but my kids have been screwed out of a lot of soccer playing in the past 4-5 weeks with all the precip. So rain would hopefully "dry out" quicker for us, plus it always helps to get some drought relief while we can. With all the snow we've had I would say we've been blessed already, and hope some who haven't this year, will. (But I do love watching snow fall, and would not complain in the least if it does it again this winter!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 it looks like this is going to be a track dependent storm - if you are in the exact right spot with the path of the storm, you could receive some heavy snow. ..and you're at 8,000 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Oh wow how surprising guys...I'm sure most were ready to make call maps because there was such agreement yesterday they didn't need to see any other runs. I'm shocked models flipped 60+ hours out from the storm! My thoughts exactly last night. Any other time if a storm is 3 days away with possibilities very few would give up. This is the storm that never gets here it looks like. Still very little agreement on specifics...think we got an outside chance here in the upstate to catch some deformation band snow wed. evening, that's all i'm hoping for at this point. But if the delays continue we could catch some colder air and who knows. Typically the NAM isn't great outside of 48hrs and sometimes 24hrs and mby is still 60+hrs away. Tomorrow will pay more attention to the models. I'm ready for some football! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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