WeatherNC Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 GFS has had it for a couple of days in a row now, while the euro had it then lost it. Right now i want the GFS in my corner, just the opposite of normal! The global has had this for the past 2-3 days, but I will be interested to see what it shows once the event gets inside truncation, as resolution is lost outside of 192hrs, compared to the Euro which is of a higher res throughout. That could be a good thing, in that the higher res can throw screwballs in output as the atmosphere changes when T is stepped, or a bad thing in that the Euro consistently verifies better than any other model at 500mb 5-7 days out. 18z DGEX looks good though Back to your regularly scheduled banter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The global has had this for the past 2-3 days, but I will be interested to see what it shows once the event gets inside truncation, as resolution is lost outside of 192hrs, compared to the Euro which is of a higher res throughout. That could be a good thing, in that the higher res can throw screwballs in output as the atmosphere changes when T is stepped, or a bad thing in that the Euro consistently verifies better than any other model at 500mb 5-7 days out. 18z DGEX looks good though +1 on that WNC! Look forward to your thoughts over the weekend, maybe after our first crappie fishing trip of the year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 What are you guys doing discussing weather here? This is the banter thread. I want banter dangit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 What are you guys doing discussing weather here? This is the banter thread. I want banter dangit. I realized that after I posted, but someone else started the 204hr GFS weather disco here, not me... For the sake of not havng to upload the DGEX porn again, I just rolled with it, back to banter, whatever that may be. Going to eat some cheese and crackers with the wife, maybe have a brew, and listen to the state of our union. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I realized that after I posted, but someone else started the 204hr GFS weather disco here, not me... For the sake of not have to upload the DGEX porn again, I just rolled with it, back to banter, whatever that may be. Going to eat some cheese and crackers with the wife, maybe have a brew, and listen to the state of our union. It's alright, just as long as you stand by me: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 BTW I'm on here practically 24/7 so I would be happy to mod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Does anybody remember a few years back on eastern when they had a glitch that made a bunch of random people mods. I seem to remember the newly minted mods banning some peoplle before the problem was fixed. It was hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Also, I assume this topic will continue to be brought up. Johnathan (burger) has a post up about it right now.... No H! One of those little nit picky things that everyone does . Haha it happens non stop at work someone will write in an email, "Hey John" even though my name is spelled correctly on the email or in my sig! As for the issue with growth, it's simple and Lookout pointed it out we just need more mods who have no life during the winter time. I love the idea of threads for regions but the big drawback is that you mainly have 7 mets/pros that post here consistently 4 are from NC and 3 are from GA. That means that two regions would probably have all the mets so you would still end up with tons of people going to outside of their region to ask IMBY questions. Trying to find a solution that actually works is like trying to find peace in the middle east, you can get close but someone is not going to be happy. I used to be an admin for an ex Jehovah's Witness board (I was raised one) that encouraged trolling for the longest time and we had to clean it up. We took a scorched earth policy and it was just madness but even it pales in comparison to this place when a huge winter storm is coming. So I can imagine the strain Lookout, Jeremy and Sean are under and again everyone has an outside life. So for the TL;DR version it's a cluster that will forever and always be an uphill battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Does anybody remember a few years back on eastern when they had a glitch that made a bunch of random people mods. I seem to remember the newly minted mods banning some peoplle before the problem was fixed. It was hilarious. I believe that was last year? It also came back on and you could make up whatever user name you wanted. People had others usernames and were trolling. I believe someone claimed to be a mod from here and was going on and on about how much they loved guys it actually made me lol a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tarheel67 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Now we know that Big Frosty's monkey has been jamming to Aldo Nova all this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I realized that after I posted, but someone else started the 204hr GFS weather disco here, not me... For the sake of not havng to upload the DGEX porn again, I just rolled with it, back to banter, whatever that may be. Going to eat some cheese and crackers with the wife, maybe have a brew, and listen to the state of our union. I love the Jean-Luc Picard facepalm. One of the best message board metaphorical images. But sometimes the is not enough. Sometimes, like with this storm, is more appropriate. But then, there are situations, like with the met with the mean streak where all you can do is I was going to watch the state of the union, but then I decided to watch some real politics. So we threw in an episode of The West Wing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 BTW I'm on here practically 24/7 so I would be happy to mod Yeah, me too. We need a little age and humor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Well the MA crew is freaking out, the NAM was dryer and a little warmer, it also almost misses NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Yeah, me too. We need a little age and humor. I can see it now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I think sub-board, sub-forum, sub-sub forums would have some good and some bad consequences, most of which has already been said. If you divide the general region up too much, there would potentially be too many threads to navigate through, particularly if you also have different threads for different storm threats, which is an idea I like. Personally, I wouldn't want to have to go into lots of threads to hear discussions from various mets, who would be posting primarily in their sub-regional thread. I think the little test run of the Banter thread has worked very well. We should keep it. Regarding mets, I don't think they should feel obligated to forecast for regions that they don't cover or have expertise in, although it is appreciated when they do. Nobody should whine about it when they don't, though. That's all I have. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 +1 Regarding mets, I don't think they should feel obligated to forecast for regions that they don't cover or have expertise in, although it is appreciated when they do. That's all I have. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Ji is right in the bullseye. I bet Lookout is happy about that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Ji is right in the bullseye. I bet Lookout is happy about that! I hate this storm so bad, he can have it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Ji is right in the bullseye. I bet Lookout is happy about that! Listening to everyone arguing about why this model is wrong- deformation bands always set up over my house- etc. just painful to read through. Living in coastal Delaware, I will get mostly rain maybe a little light snow at the end. I can relate to the SE crew much better. Hopefully we can all get ours soon Jason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Haven't we learned our lesson yet? Models have shown epic cold snaps since the first week of December. Usually a week delayed we ended up with a modified airmass. We also need blocking back for a big snowstorm! I'm a snow fan as any. But you need a lot more things to go right than normal for this pattern to yield a Big Daddy. WHERE'S THE RESET BUTTON????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Precisely Bing. I am amazed how excited some people about models showing historic brutal cold sometime over a week away. What makes them think there is much of a chance of it happening this time when it did not occur the previous 5 times this winter models have depicted upcoming brutal cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Haven't we learned our lesson yet? Models have shown epic cold snaps since the first week of December. Usually a week delayed we ended up with a modified airmass. We also need blocking back for a big snowstorm! I'm a snow fan as any. But you need a lot more things to go right than normal for this pattern to yield a Big Daddy. WHERE'S THE RESET BUTTON????? Not sure it is really a lesson bing, as we have seen extreme cold modeled in the 7-10 day range, only for it to be scaled back, but not really modified as you stated since the source has been mostly Arctic, and not maritime, which would be indicative of modification in the correct sense this time of year. This has been a very cold winter, one of the coldest in recent memory, from the beginning of Dec we have been in the box, with only a brief reprieve here or there that managed to crack 50 for a day or two, no Jan thaw this year. High latitude blocking while important, can also be extreme as we saw in the first part of Dec where the mean storm track is too far south, and you have to wait till the block retrogrades, if it does because not all do, through central Canada to allow the pattern to relax and something to pop. No Reset Button going forward I am afraid, at-least for the first part of Feb with a PNA ridge in place atm, something we have not really seen, and the NAO and AO modeled to go positive into the first week of the new month. Furthermore, with the MJO going into the circle of death, maybe to reemerge in phase 6 around day 10, we would likely have to wait until the second week of February for phase 8, should it get there, which can produce blocking given past cases for the month (see RaleighWX MJO Composites). http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/MJO.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I am at least getting a nice rain right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I love the Jean-Luc Picard facepalm. One of the best message board metaphorical images. But sometimes the is not enough. Sometimes, like with this storm, is more appropriate. But then, there are situations, like with the met with the mean streak where all you can do is I was going to watch the state of the union, but then I decided to watch some real politics. So we threw in an episode of The West Wing. I always thought the the facepalm guy was Dr. Phil LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Wow...I really appreciate your kinds words. Thanks so much. I am happy to be able to contribute something. You know, I am a weather weenie through and through...I have been fascinated watching the obs and trends this morning....some great stuff in the mountains, and some thunderstorms to boot! Awesome. Which makes me/us all the more thankful for all the work you and everybody on this forum puts in to these storms, storm after storm. Though after looking at comments on your website and this website you would never know it sometimes. I know I have not been on here long, but I have followed this forum this whole season, and your website for several years so I have seen the time put in to many of these, this being one of the worst over all. So thanks again! Yep this one was crazy, it will certainly be remembered in future events. Thanks for putting so much time into it, too bad it crapped out at the last minute. Matt. This is one of the many reason you are great at what you do. An on air met who knows his stuff. I have enjoyed your contribution to the SE folks over to past few years. It also sucks that Im not in your market. I know Marion-WX (dan) will agree with me on that. Please know we all thank you for posting here!!! No chill out and get some sleep. As far as this storm. Would have been nice, but it is cool. I also go through post storm...whatevers...Not this time. I would love some more action this winter. LOVE IT. But pitchers and catchers do report in 20 days, so.... I will leave it at that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I always thought the the facepalm guy was Dr. Phil LOL Haha! I always thought it was Jim Cramer from CNBC. It occurred to me one day when I was watching TNG that it was Picard. Yeah, I'm a nerd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCStateMMY Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 So yeah, a 200 mile shift south, and we would be buried for weeks. Every snow lover in NC would have been thrilled. But it is like they say: You can put your wants in one hand and $%^& in the other, and see which fills the fastest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Well, January pretty much sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Well, January pretty much sucked. You just leave these little turds in every thread, don't you? Just like a little rabbit hopping around dropping nuggets everywhere. At least this thread is like the litter box, so at least you're doing it in the right place over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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