January General Banter Thread III

[griteater]

lets not give credit for the wrong reasons though. The 5H went from Mobile to Montgomery and is going to really be in MEM area and possibly further north of there in 18 hours. I just updated my map call, but this has trended well west and north. Had the 5H did what we thought 2 to 3 days ago, theres no doubt the system would have thrown down snow with the def. band as it swept through...turns out, that band is going from western TN to southern Indiana and southern Ohio and part of Kentucky I think....which is much much further north and west, and nobody called for that.

Very true.

[Brick Tamland]

starting to wonder if it's the nuke plants in Raleigh and Charlotte...how else can there literally just be a wall around the entire area time after time?

Yeah, it's nice that we had two good snows in December. But it just seems we have missed out out a lot of threats and great potential the last two winters. It seems to me when I was a kid in the 80s that the number of snow storms we had here were more each winter than they have been the last couple of decades. Now it seems if we get any snow at all it is one good storm, and that's it. It's been all or nothing the last two decades.

[griteater]

The NW trend just before go time with SE storms almost never fails. The one that sticks out in my mind on the + side was the Feb 2010 storm. In the days leading up to the storm, everything was supressed to the south, with no precip here. The GGEM led the charge to bring it north. Ended up with 2-4 inches.

[Brick Tamland]

It seems the only way we can get a good snow here now is to have cold air already in place and a bomb just off the coast of NC.

[NavarreDon]

Off from work today & tomm. I guess I will watch some drizzle the next couple days. This storm had so much promise. I guess I really can't complain though. This is the first big miss that I can remeber in the last 2 winters.

[Lookout]

Yeah, it's nice that we had two good snows in December. But it just seems we have missed out out a lot of threats and great potential the last two winters. It seems to me when I was a kid in the 80s that the number of snow storms we had here were more each winter than they have been the last couple of decades. Now it seems if we get any snow at all it is one good storm, and that's it. It's been all or nothing the last two decades.

I have been surprised somewhat at the lack of big nc snows the last number of years. Back in the early 2000s, it seemed every winter nc was getting hit hard while ga either got some ice or rain. But the last 5 or 6 years, nc hasn't done nearly as well it seems. Maybe my memory isn't right but I sure do recall being disgusted and angry a lot more times back then that ga would just barely miss out while nc got hit by either ice or snow. Since then it seems like either we all get one, or nothing at all. Which is pretty unusual when you think about it because north carolina is in a lot better position to get winter storms than ga/sc.

[FoothillsNC]

The NW trend just before go time with SE storms almost never fails. The one that sticks out in my mind on the + side was the Feb 2010 storm. In the days leading up to the storm, everything was supressed to the south, with no precip here. The GGEM led the charge to bring it north. Ended up with 2-4 inches.

I remember that one. It was progged on GFS for Cuba from 5 days out. Then edged north. I think most forecasters on the boards knew it would be much further north and adusted accordingly..it worked like clock work.

There was a big storm a few years ago we were following on the Eastern site that was progged at 5 days to big a big hit in the Southeast. Then at 4 days it looked like the Carolinas mostly. Then 3 days it was Midatlantic. Then at 2 days it looked like New England. It turns out, the eastern Lakes and Detroit to Cleveland areas had a big storm. Watching the cliff jumping then was something , as folks were dying with each run. Just goes to prove though how without a good block, the north trend is real I think. I had tried to calculate and adjust for it , but in the end I don't think anyone saw it as a Lakes storm. Pretty amazing for all the models to be that far off in just 120 hours.

[Brick Tamland]

I have been surprised somewhat at the lack of big nc snows the last number of years. Back in the early 2000s, it seemed every winter nc was getting hit hard while ga either got some ice or rain. But the last 5 or 6 years, nc hasn't done nearly as well it seems. Maybe my memory isn't right but I sure do recall being disgusted and angry a lot more times back then that ga would just barely miss out while nc got hit by either ice or snow. Since then it seems like either we all get one, or nothing at all. Which is pretty unusual when you think about it because north carolina is in a lot better position to get winter storms than ga/sc.

Yeah, I don't understand why we have not had more here lately. I guess it goes in cycles.

[griteater]

I have been surprised somewhat at the lack of big nc snows the last number of years. Back in the early 2000s, it seemed every winter nc was getting hit hard while ga either got some ice or rain. But the last 5 or 6 years, nc hasn't done nearly as well it seems. Maybe my memory isn't right but I sure do recall being disgusted and angry a lot more times back then that ga would just barely miss out while nc got hit by either ice or snow. Since then it seems like either we all get one, or nothing at all. Which is pretty unusual when you think about it because north carolina is in a lot better position to get winter storms than ga/sc.

Early 2000's were good here.

[Cold Rain]

Very true.

Without blocking, which we don't have, and/or without confluence in the NE, which we don't have, a NW trend shouldn't really come as a surprise, regardless of what any of the models are showing.

I have always believed that the NW/inland track was the greatest risk with this system. Given the lack of those two elements. Without the residual wedging from the departing NE high, the surface low most likely would have been an inland runner. But its going to redevelop along the coast. Either way, the end result is pretty much the same regarding snowfall away from western parts...albeit with lower precip totals.

[griteater]

I remember that one. It was progged on GFS for Cuba from 5 days out. Then edged north. I think most forecasters on the boards knew it would be much further north and adusted accordingly..it worked like clock work.

There was a big storm a few years ago we were following on the Eastern site that was progged at 5 days to big a big hit in the Southeast. Then at 4 days it looked like the Carolinas mostly. Then 3 days it was Midatlantic. Then at 2 days it looked like New England. It turns out, the eastern Lakes and Detroit to Cleveland areas had a big storm. Watching the cliff jumping then was something , as folks were dying with each run. Just goes to prove though how without a good block, the north trend is real I think. I had tried to calculate and adjust for it , but in the end I don't think anyone saw it as a Lakes storm. Pretty amazing for all the models to be that far off in just 120 hours.

You would think there would be a way to calculate the amount of blocking being shown and translate that to how much NW trend you are going to see....problem is, the friggin amount of blocking changes everyday too.

[griteater]

Without blocking, which we don't have, and/or without confluence in the NE, which we don't have, a NW trend shouldn't really come as a surprise, regardless of what any of the models are showing.

I have always believed that the NW/inland track was the greatest risk with this system. Given the lack of those two elements. Without the residual wedging from the departing NE high, the surface low most likely would have been an inland runner. But its going to redevelop along the coast. Either way, the end result is pretty much the same regarding snowfall away from western parts...albeit with lower precip totals.

That's why I was so shocked to see RAH go with a Miller A, with snow line from GSO to Albemarle and west a few days back. I mean, sure the Euro was showing that solution, but there was model support for a solution to the west...they very much jumped the gun on that one, which was very unusual...and I'm with you, the sfc. low track is highly overrated. Mid and Upper low tracks are infinitely more important.

[Brick Tamland]

RAH really was bullish on this system earlier than usual. They are usually so conservative. Not sure what they were seeing that made them do that. Just shows you that you can't depend on these models. The best thing they can do is show you there is potential, and whatever happens will happen.

[Cold Rain]

That's why I was so shocked to see RAH go with a Miller A, with snow line from GSO to Albemarle and west a few days back. I mean, sure the Euro was showing that solution, but there was model support for a solution to the west...they very much jumped the gun on that one, which was very unusual...and I'm with you, the sfc. low track is highly overrated. Mid and Upper low tracks are infinitely more important.

Yeah, I couldn't figure that either. You usually don't get miller a storms out of this kind of setup. Like you and Brick said, they were bullish early, which is generally out of character for them. Being conservative was definitely the better play here, IMO

[Jet Stream Rider]

Ugh. The surface temp freezing line is way up by the Great Lakes almost. Knew it was coming but still ugh.

Hope we do get some significant rain out of it since we need it as has been noted.

[rduwx]

My personal favorite snowstorm happened 11 years ago today! I was also in the '93 storm in Marietta, Ga., which was also a great storm, but it would have to rank 2nd behind 1/25/2000.

My rank:

1) 1/2000

2) 3/1993

3) 1/1988

4) 1/2002

5) 3/1980 - was only 11 during this storm but remember how much fun we had during it.

[NEGa]

I remember that one. It was progged on GFS for Cuba from 5 days out. Then edged north. I think most forecasters on the boards knew it would be much further north and adusted accordingly..it worked like clock work.

There was a big storm a few years ago we were following on the Eastern site that was progged at 5 days to big a big hit in the Southeast. Then at 4 days it looked like the Carolinas mostly. Then 3 days it was Midatlantic. Then at 2 days it looked like New England. It turns out, the eastern Lakes and Detroit to Cleveland areas had a big storm. Watching the cliff jumping then was something , as folks were dying with each run. Just goes to prove though how without a good block, the north trend is real I think. I had tried to calculate and adjust for it , but in the end I don't think anyone saw it as a Lakes storm. Pretty amazing for all the models to be that far off in just 120 hours.

it seems like the shift the last 24-36 hours to such a far n and w position was pretty huge...going from n ga to near memphis. thats what caught me off guard. i realized it was shifting back and forth, and i thought it would continue...instead it just blew itself out of here altogether

that was a good storm. supposed to be suppressed south as well around here, ended up with over 3" that was a pretty small shift, too - esp considering the one we just witnessed

[eyewall]

I love RAH and know the people well. I can't figure out why they were so bullish early on even when it was becoming apparent this would be the first big pile of fail this winter.

[jburns]

It's amazing to go back and think about all the changes we've been through w/ this storm. We started out w/ a nice little snow that was supposed to happen on Monday. Then that sheared out and there was going to be a big storm for Tuesday. After that we were trying to see if it was going to be the perfect track for our back yard. (inland, coastal, etc...). Then, oh no, where did the cold air go? Models showing good track but no cold because storm keeps getting pushed back. Finally used to the idea that it's not going to snow but you would really like a good rain maker. Now we have to watch and see if the big rain is actually going to hold on. Did I miss anything?

This has been my least enjoyable storm experience in all the years I've done this. Not from the end result, I'm used to that, but because of the atmosphere inside the forum. When I posted early on Friday that I didn't think it would snow IMBY, explaining why I was calling it a "catbird" storm, I became a pariah. Later that day when the 18Z GFS came out and several people did the same the cries of the multitude chanting "cliff jumpers" overwhelmed the forum. From that point on little snide comments abounded about anyone who posted about lack of snow.

I then watched the same people who derided those of us who didn't feel this was the storm for us go through multiple twists, leaps of faith and pure fantasy trying to keep a snow chance in their area as model after model showed waa overwhelming the area. Finally they were down to the NAM alone, a model that is normally greeted with, "but its the NAM" whenever it shows an event. Not this time. It had to be right because it was the last hope.

The next person that calls me a cliff jumper will become my number 1 snow pimp and will be so addressed. Of course there will be room for SP2, SP3 etc. If it weren't for Psycho Met there would not have been one redeeming feature in the whole 4 days.

[Weather Czar]

RAH really was bullish on this system earlier than usual. They are usually so conservative. Not sure what they were seeing that made them do that. Just shows you that you can't depend on these models. The best thing they can do is show you there is potential, and whatever happens will happen.

Brick, how is it you can make a great post like this and two hours later cancel winter and say bring on spring when the models show a snow storm 7 days out only to be wrong? You used the most important word in there, "potential" just remember that next time when the models show a snowstorm at 180 hours.

[strongwxnc]

And this is why you are the MAN old Burns....

This has been my least enjoyable storm experience in all the years I've done this. Not from the end result, I'm used to that, but because of the atmosphere inside the forum. When I posted early on Friday that I didn't think it would snow IMBY, explaining why I was calling it a "catbird" storm, I became a pariah. Later that day when the 18Z GFS came out and several people did the same the cries of the multitude chanting "cliff jumpers" overwhelmed the forum. From that point on little snide comments abounded about anyone who posted about lack of snow.

I then watched the same people who derided those of us who didn't feel this was the storm for us go through multiple twists, leaps of faith and pure fantasy trying to keep a snow chance in their area as model after model showed waa overwhelming the area. Finally they were down to the NAM alone, a model that is normally greeted with, "but its the NAM" whenever it shows an event. Not this time. It had to be right because it was the last hope.

The next person that calls me a cliff jumper will become my number 1 snow pimp and will be so addressed. Of course there will be room for SP2, SP3 etc. If it weren't for Psycho Met there would not have been one redeeming feature in the whole 4 days.

[rduwx]

This has been my least enjoyable storm experience in all the years I've done this. Not from the end result, I'm used to that, but because of the atmosphere inside the forum. When I posted early on Friday that I didn't think it would snow IMBY, explaining why I was calling it a "catbird" storm, I became a pariah. Later that day when the 18Z GFS came out and several people did the same the cries of the multitude chanting "cliff jumpers" overwhelmed the forum. From that point on little snide comments abounded about anyone who posted about lack of snow.

I then watched the same people who derided those of us who didn't feel this was the storm for us go through multiple twists, leaps of faith and pure fantasy trying to keep a snow chance in their area as model after model showed waa overwhelming the area. Finally they were down to the NAM alone, a model that is normally greeted with, "but its the NAM" whenever it shows an event. Not this time. It had to be right because it was the last hope.

The next person that calls me a cliff jumper will become my number 1 snow pimp and will be so addressed. Of course there will be room for SP2, SP3 etc. If it weren't for Psycho Met there would not have been one redeeming feature in the whole 4 days.

I agree jburns! It wasn't one of my favorites to track either. Once I realized on Saturday that this just wasn't going to work out for the RDU area I tried not to post much in the storm thread. I stuck mainly in the banter thread so I didn't upset anyone. The banter thread ended up being where the real storm was anyway. It was very entertaining!

[eyewall]

I really hate this storm. Sorry to say it but it really sucks. I hope something pans out in Feb.

[feloniousq]

This has been my least enjoyable storm experience in all the years I've done this. Not from the end result, I'm used to that, but because of the atmosphere inside the forum. When I posted early on Friday that I didn't think it would snow IMBY, explaining why I was calling it a "catbird" storm, I became a pariah. Later that day when the 18Z GFS came out and several people did the same the cries of the multitude chanting "cliff jumpers" overwhelmed the forum. From that point on little snide comments abounded about anyone who posted about lack of snow.

I then watched the same people who derided those of us who didn't feel this was the storm for us go through multiple twists, leaps of faith and pure fantasy trying to keep a snow chance in their area as model after model showed waa overwhelming the area. Finally they were down to the NAM alone, a model that is normally greeted with, "but its the NAM" whenever it shows an event. Not this time. It had to be right because it was the last hope.

The next person that calls me a cliff jumper will become my number 1 snow pimp and will be so addressed. Of course there will be room for SP2, SP3 etc. If it weren't for Psycho Met there would not have been one redeeming feature in the whole 4 days.

Totally agree. Way too much wishcasting this year. It's one thing to love and hope for snow, but you've also got to be able to recognize when there's no shot and move on with your life instead of delusionally hoping for X, Y, and Z non-climo-supported trends in each and every model run to get you snow out of it. It was fun for the December storms, but this one wasn't. Maybe it's just snow fatigue.

Some have expressed excitement about things 200 and 300 hours out - my first thought was "not again". I need a tude adjustment.

[Cold Rain]

This has been my least enjoyable storm experience in all the years I've done this. Not from the end result, I'm used to that, but because of the atmosphere inside the forum. When I posted early on Friday that I didn't think it would snow IMBY, explaining why I was calling it a "catbird" storm, I became a pariah. Later that day when the 18Z GFS came out and several people did the same the cries of the multitude chanting "cliff jumpers" overwhelmed the forum. From that point on little snide comments abounded about anyone who posted about lack of snow.

I then watched the same people who derided those of us who didn't feel this was the storm for us go through multiple twists, leaps of faith and pure fantasy trying to keep a snow chance in their area as model after model showed waa overwhelming the area. Finally they were down to the NAM alone, a model that is normally greeted with, "but its the NAM" whenever it shows an event. Not this time. It had to be right because it was the last hope.

The next person that calls me a cliff jumper will become my number 1 snow pimp and will be so addressed. Of course there will be room for SP2, SP3 etc. If it weren't for Psycho Met there would not have been one redeeming feature in the whole 4 days.

A freakin men!

[Cold Rain]

I really hate this storm. Sorry to say it but it really sucks. I hope something pans out in Feb.

Also A freakin men!

[WeatherNC]

I really hate this storm. Sorry to say it but it really sucks. I hope something pans out in Feb.

Yes this one blew, but as a result, I had a come to Jesus and he said the countdown to spring and another glorious growing season has begun. While not as bad in terms of verification as others (not like MHX calling for 3-6" and ended up at 33 and RN, that hurts), I agree with others that some of the behavior in the storm thread was the worst I have ever seen on the SE side. Granted, it paled in comparison to some main-side threads from back in the day, but some members and even a female met fell off the rocker. I encourage you guys when you see stuff like that, just report it, don't even take the time to reply as it just adds to the clutter. Even I am guilty of replying a couple times when I should have just let it go. Hopefully the staff gets a handle on this in future events, and I am a proponent of bringing the weenie tags back, to identify the terds, and limit them to 3 posts a day. Deterrence using others as an example is a powerful tool, especially here where some people think since they are behind a computer, they do not have to follow rules and etiquette. I also miss seeing the pink tags lurking at the bottom, it adds to the overall character of the board and has the potential to negate the episode we just saw in the future. The banter thread was awesome though, best disco ever on this side!!!

In the future, and wondering as we are starting to get kind of big, should we break down our main regional disco thread into sub-regions. Specific storm threads are the way too go imo, but just an overall disco on local areas, say (Central and Eastern NC) (Western NC, Upstate and N GA) (TN), any ideas. We have a lot of folks that have ill will towards other areas as they believe the focus is too much there, creating sub-region general obs/disco would help in that regard as users can connect more to those around them in the general disco sense, while still keeping track of the main storm discussion, banter, and whatever else is going on in the SE WX community as a whole. Thoughts?

[lilj4425]

What dryslot? It hasn't stopped raining here since this morning. This storm wasn't even supposed to be snow in the first place for a lot of places so i'm not sure what everybody is so upset about. This has been a GREAT winter for me so far.

[Amos83]

I agree jburns! It wasn't one of my favorites to track either. Once I realized on Saturday that this just wasn't going to work out for the RDU area I tried not to post much in the storm thread. I stuck mainly in the banter thread so I didn't upset anyone. The banter thread ended up being where the real storm was anyway. It was very entertaining!

RDUWX, small small world! I was in Marietta during the Blizzard of 93 as well! That is my all time favorite snow! I was 11 back then so I didn't fully appreciate how epic that storm was. I remember waking up real early that morning, looking outside and not a flake was flying. I went back to bed depressed then got back up when the sun came out and saw an amazing blizzard with bolts of lightning. It was insane.

Where exactly where you in marietta? I lived off off of Dallas Highway.

[TheBlade]

In the future, and wondering as we are starting to get kind of big, should we break down our main regional disco thread into sub-regions. Specific storm threads are the way too go imo, but just an overall disco on local areas, say (Central and Eastern NC) (Western NC, Upstate and N GA) (TN), any ideas. We have a lot of folks that have ill will towards other areas as they believe the focus is too much there, creating sub-region general obs/disco would help in that regard as users can connect more to those around them in the general disco sense, while still keeping track of the main storm discussion, banter, and whatever else is going on in the SE WX community as a whole. Thoughts?

I think as long as there are enough people in each of those regions to discuss it would probably be a good idea. Since even with this last storm there were people complaining that noone was forecasting for their area, which was mainly TN. We have a lot of NC and SC to break it down in to several regions, and yea TN would prob be on its own for now.