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January General Banter Thread III


Isopycnic

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Haha, the big bad CLT mafia. Just FYI, I am not a part of that mafia as there a few from my region that make me roll my eyes the same way. I've dealt with Raleigh winters before, I feel every single one of y'alls pain. I'm just a big climo guy and it's tough when you love snow and are stuck in a place that is geographically a bad spot for it. I've been to places where it is 8 feet deep and dreaded leaving it. But in the end, we will never be able to change the weather. I'm done now, hopefully I didn't make all of you want to kill me, especially since I bet 75% of you guys are my fellow Wolfpackers!

Yuck. Wolfpackers.

Fighting Camels baby!! weight_lift.gifweight_lift.gifweight_lift.gifweight_lift.gif

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I know, it just seems to be more devilish right now with some posters (note, SOME) be very snide in their comments. A few have just rubbed us guys the wrong way. Plus I am more of a climo-guy that grew up in Hickory, which always stands a better chance based on its climate alone than other places outside of the mtns. I guess that's why I roll my eyes when I see cliff diving for people down east where I am like, "You live where historically it does not snow/ice that often, get a grip on reality!'. But I am not going to broadcast those thoughts out like alot of the NE and MA folks. I went to school in Raleigh, believe me, I know the despair that is winter there. Plus it's been a decade now, so a 2000 storm can happen again for all I care. Means I can just refer to that whenever Brick wants to complain about something trivial.

You take Brick far too seriously.

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Haha, the big bad CLT mafia. Just FYI, I am not a part of that mafia as there a few from my region that make me roll my eyes the same way. I've dealt with Raleigh winters before, I feel every single one of y'alls pain. I'm just a big climo guy and it's tough when you love snow and are stuck in a place that is geographically a bad spot for it. I've been to places where it is 8 feet deep and dreaded leaving it. But in the end, we will never be able to change the weather. I'm done now, hopefully I didn't make all of you want to kill me, especially since I bet 75% of you guys are my fellow Wolfpackers!

Indeed, go Pack!

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I actually feel pretty good about seeing some snow. RAH is saying they are going with the Euro, and it has been trending more south and east. I think the rate of precip is going to help us cool things quickly and keep us mostly snow.

Here is the part from RAH's latest disco that has me still intrigued.

APPEARS THE KEY TO THE FORECAST WILL BE THE LOWEST 5000FT OF THE

ATMOSPHERE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND MODEL

SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS SUGGEST A RELATIVELY WARM LAYER THROUGH THE

CRITICAL PRECIP PERIOD. PRECIP INTENSITY MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME

THIS WARM LAYER RESULTING IN A "WARM" WET SNOW WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX

WHEN PRECIP RATES DECREASE. THE ECMWF TRACKS 850MB LOW A LITTLE

FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST COMPARED TO ITS PREVIOUS RUN...LIMITING WARM

AIR RETURN ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. ALSO...AM WONDERING IF

MODELS ARE TOO QUICK WARMING THE COLD DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE

ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRY AIR RIDGE EARLY TUESDAY. PRECIP FALLING

THROUGH THIS AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN DECENT EVAPORATIVE

COOLING...LENDING TO COOLER NEAR SURFACE CONDITIONS THAN ADVERTISED

BY THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIP OCCURS SOONER THAN EXPECTED

(IE. JANUARY 10TH SYSTEM IN WHICH PRECIP OCCURRED 4-6 HOURS FASTER

THAN EXPECTED LEADING TO HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE FAR SOUTH).

DEEPENING 700-500MB CYCLONE EARLY WEDNESDAY NEAR OR IMMEDIATELY TO

OUR EAST SUGGEST SHOT AT PRECIP BANDING OVER THE PIEDMONT

COUNTIES...ENHANCING PRECIP TOTALS. AS MID LEVEL SYSTEM PULLS OUT

LATER WEDNESDAY...WE LOSE SATURATION ALOFT. THUS EXPECT ANY PRECIP

AFTER MID MORNING WEDNESDAY TO BE MAINLY LIQUID (THOUGH LIGHT).

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Allan Huffman said there is a good chance RDU gets accumulating snow from this. Anything 3 inches and above is a good snow for here, so I'll take it.

wow - a positive comment :thumbsup: and for once, at least, i agree with you :lol: anything 3" or higher is a good snow

It's because Groundhog Day is right around the corner. :arrowhead::hurrbear:

SO IF THIS IS YELLING, ThEn WhAt WOuLd ThIS Be? :P

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Surface temps are going to be a huge problem for us in central NC and even the piedmont so assuming the SLP tracks just off the coast and are surface temps are in the mid-30's it's going to be close. I have seen it snow here in NC with temps in the mid-30's before and seen it stick but quickly melt after it stops.

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I dare say the feeling in this place is worse than it was right before the Christmas storm. I know we have Brad Panovich and GSP in one corner and then the RDU mets on this board in the other. Gonna be a rollercoaster ride for some people the next 48 hours on here.

Here is something for some to ponder via the twitter feed of Brad Panovich of WCNC:

"Models, currently underestimating the arctic air mass & taking a low track inland that doesn't makes sense synoptically or climatologicaly"

"the thing you have to remember about numerical wx models, they aren't forecasts, they are guidance. None had 6" of snow on the coast today"

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I dare say the feeling in this place is worse than it was right before the Christmas storm. I know we have Brad Panovich and GSP in one corner and then the RDU mets on this board in the other. Gonna be a rollercoaster ride for some people the next 48 hours on here.

Quite an understatement. The mood around here changes with every model run, even if that one model's solution isn't accurate..:arrowhead:

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Ok, which one of you hacked into Brick Tamland's account? :arrowhead::blink:

Seriously, after the Carolina crusher of 2000, no one can say they really know what is going to happen with winter weather here, no matter what the models say. I think we were just supposed to get a lot of rain with that one, too. Not saying this is the same thing, but there is a lot of moisture coming, so who knows.

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I am usually one to hope we get crushed by snow....but I gotta drive to Raleigh from Greenville on Monday afternoon and supposed to come back Wednesday afternoon. I hope we see flakes, but I hope it doesn't crush us. I GOTTA GO ON THIS TRIP. Can't it snow the next week instead?

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The GFS model after going through the machine. :thumbsup:

Find me the nearest swimming pool. At the rate things are moving, it's going to be 70 by the time this system gets here Tuesday. :snorkle:

:lol:

i sure wish it were coming in as originally thought when more cold air was around. sigh - oh well. all hope is not yet lost, i would be more than satisfied with a couple of inches if we can eek it out

No need to bail yet, not given what's transpired this season.

+1

HPC 5 day.

now that is funny - but only for a small number of us

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