bta0812 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Haha, the big bad CLT mafia. Just FYI, I am not a part of that mafia as there a few from my region that make me roll my eyes the same way. I've dealt with Raleigh winters before, I feel every single one of y'alls pain. I'm just a big climo guy and it's tough when you love snow and are stuck in a place that is geographically a bad spot for it. I've been to places where it is 8 feet deep and dreaded leaving it. But in the end, we will never be able to change the weather. I'm done now, hopefully I didn't make all of you want to kill me, especially since I bet 75% of you guys are my fellow Wolfpackers! Yuck. Wolfpackers. Fighting Camels baby!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I know, it just seems to be more devilish right now with some posters (note, SOME) be very snide in their comments. A few have just rubbed us guys the wrong way. Plus I am more of a climo-guy that grew up in Hickory, which always stands a better chance based on its climate alone than other places outside of the mtns. I guess that's why I roll my eyes when I see cliff diving for people down east where I am like, "You live where historically it does not snow/ice that often, get a grip on reality!'. But I am not going to broadcast those thoughts out like alot of the NE and MA folks. I went to school in Raleigh, believe me, I know the despair that is winter there. Plus it's been a decade now, so a 2000 storm can happen again for all I care. Means I can just refer to that whenever Brick wants to complain about something trivial. You take Brick far too seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Haha, the big bad CLT mafia. Just FYI, I am not a part of that mafia as there a few from my region that make me roll my eyes the same way. I've dealt with Raleigh winters before, I feel every single one of y'alls pain. I'm just a big climo guy and it's tough when you love snow and are stuck in a place that is geographically a bad spot for it. I've been to places where it is 8 feet deep and dreaded leaving it. But in the end, we will never be able to change the weather. I'm done now, hopefully I didn't make all of you want to kill me, especially since I bet 75% of you guys are my fellow Wolfpackers! Indeed, go Pack! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Oh no, now I will never want it to snow for you in buies creek, Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Ou I don't take him seriously, which is why I included him in that post. Left out a smiley. I want him to get slammed at least once each year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bta0812 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Oh no, now I will never want it to snow for you in buies creek, Haha Watch it buddy. You don't mess with a Camel! At least I'm not still at UNCW, ironically its snowing there today, but never does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Crazy winter for sure, I love it. And it all started with me taking a great 10 pt buck next to Jordan lake during the Dec 4th snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 NAM sounds like a case of "it will snow but it won't stick" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I actually feel pretty good about seeing some snow. RAH is saying they are going with the Euro, and it has been trending more south and east. I think the rate of precip is going to help us cool things quickly and keep us mostly snow. Here is the part from RAH's latest disco that has me still intrigued. APPEARS THE KEY TO THE FORECAST WILL BE THE LOWEST 5000FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND MODEL SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS SUGGEST A RELATIVELY WARM LAYER THROUGH THE CRITICAL PRECIP PERIOD. PRECIP INTENSITY MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THIS WARM LAYER RESULTING IN A "WARM" WET SNOW WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX WHEN PRECIP RATES DECREASE. THE ECMWF TRACKS 850MB LOW A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST COMPARED TO ITS PREVIOUS RUN...LIMITING WARM AIR RETURN ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. ALSO...AM WONDERING IF MODELS ARE TOO QUICK WARMING THE COLD DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRY AIR RIDGE EARLY TUESDAY. PRECIP FALLING THROUGH THIS AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN DECENT EVAPORATIVE COOLING...LENDING TO COOLER NEAR SURFACE CONDITIONS THAN ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIP OCCURS SOONER THAN EXPECTED (IE. JANUARY 10TH SYSTEM IN WHICH PRECIP OCCURRED 4-6 HOURS FASTER THAN EXPECTED LEADING TO HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE FAR SOUTH). DEEPENING 700-500MB CYCLONE EARLY WEDNESDAY NEAR OR IMMEDIATELY TO OUR EAST SUGGEST SHOT AT PRECIP BANDING OVER THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES...ENHANCING PRECIP TOTALS. AS MID LEVEL SYSTEM PULLS OUT LATER WEDNESDAY...WE LOSE SATURATION ALOFT. THUS EXPECT ANY PRECIP AFTER MID MORNING WEDNESDAY TO BE MAINLY LIQUID (THOUGH LIGHT). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 This sums it up for most on this storm !!! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Sc5mek85l0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Allan Huffman said there is a good chance RDU gets accumulating snow from this. Anything 3 inches and above is a good snow for here, so I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 One more for Brick !!! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wxkdmL3iMCY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Sorry, I am staying positive. I have a good feeling about this. There is just something about the last week of January that is good for snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Sorry, I am staying positive. I have a good feeling about this. There is just something about the last week of January that is good for snow here. It's because Groundhog Day is right around the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Allan Huffman said there is a good chance RDU gets accumulating snow from this. Anything 3 inches and above is a good snow for here, so I'll take it. wow - a positive comment and for once, at least, i agree with you anything 3" or higher is a good snow It's because Groundhog Day is right around the corner. SO IF THIS IS YELLING, ThEn WhAt WOuLd ThIS Be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Surface temps are going to be a huge problem for us in central NC and even the piedmont so assuming the SLP tracks just off the coast and are surface temps are in the mid-30's it's going to be close. I have seen it snow here in NC with temps in the mid-30's before and seen it stick but quickly melt after it stops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 SO IF THIS IS YELLING, ThEn WhAt WOuLd ThIS Be? The GFS model after going through the machine. Find me the nearest swimming pool. At the rate things are moving, it's going to be 70 by the time this system gets here Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Really no chance with this next storm for any snow. I'm now hoping this trends west with a track through Macon, GA. This will give me a good 1 to 1.50 inches of rain. I need some heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Love how everyone is down on this storm.. Makes for some great post in the other thread......All in less than 12 or so hours....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Love how everyone is down on this storm.. Makes for some great post in the other thread......All in less than 12 or so hours....lol No need to bail yet, not given what's transpired this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I dare say the feeling in this place is worse than it was right before the Christmas storm. I know we have Brad Panovich and GSP in one corner and then the RDU mets on this board in the other. Gonna be a rollercoaster ride for some people the next 48 hours on here. Here is something for some to ponder via the twitter feed of Brad Panovich of WCNC: "Models, currently underestimating the arctic air mass & taking a low track inland that doesn't makes sense synoptically or climatologicaly" "the thing you have to remember about numerical wx models, they aren't forecasts, they are guidance. None had 6" of snow on the coast today" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I dare say the feeling in this place is worse than it was right before the Christmas storm. I know we have Brad Panovich and GSP in one corner and then the RDU mets on this board in the other. Gonna be a rollercoaster ride for some people the next 48 hours on here. Quite an understatement. The mood around here changes with every model run, even if that one model's solution isn't accurate.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 No doubt Jeremy. Long road left here... No need to bail yet, not given what's transpired this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 the swings of emotions are comical! Watch new NAM is coming out.. 3 2 1 LOL, it happens with every event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The best things the models can do here is tell us there is potential. No one really knows what will happen until it happens. There have been plenty of times we were supposed to get snow and didn't. But there have been just as many times we were not supposed to get snow and did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i00.gif HPC 5 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Ok, which one of you hacked into Brick Tamland's account? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Ok, which one of you hacked into Brick Tamland's account? Seriously, after the Carolina crusher of 2000, no one can say they really know what is going to happen with winter weather here, no matter what the models say. I think we were just supposed to get a lot of rain with that one, too. Not saying this is the same thing, but there is a lot of moisture coming, so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpg2 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I am usually one to hope we get crushed by snow....but I gotta drive to Raleigh from Greenville on Monday afternoon and supposed to come back Wednesday afternoon. I hope we see flakes, but I hope it doesn't crush us. I GOTTA GO ON THIS TRIP. Can't it snow the next week instead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The GFS model after going through the machine. Find me the nearest swimming pool. At the rate things are moving, it's going to be 70 by the time this system gets here Tuesday. i sure wish it were coming in as originally thought when more cold air was around. sigh - oh well. all hope is not yet lost, i would be more than satisfied with a couple of inches if we can eek it out No need to bail yet, not given what's transpired this season. +1 HPC 5 day. now that is funny - but only for a small number of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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