beanskip Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Oh well, back to the model thread for me -- I was hoping for more of a challenge. Good luck with all that anger. Trust me, I'm well aware that CAD can extend to ATL. I've forecasted the erosion of CAD in ATL. What I'm not aware of, is CAD that curves around the apps and into TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This is a great thread. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It's nice to see someone else piss people off for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Trust me, I'm well aware that CAD can extend to ATL. I've forecasted the erosion of CAD in ATL. What I'm not aware of, is CAD that curves around the apps and into TN. Yeah, I've seen Alabama-- not TN. You're rather stand off ish-- where did you go to school, are you currently in the field? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It's nice to see someone else piss people off for a change. Come on Brick, you don't piss us all off, just hit a nerve sometimes (which seemed to happen more this storm). Maybe you can help, is Falls up any or is it still down? Coming into town this upcoming weekend to chase ducks around the lake on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 All you have to do is correctly interpret the models. That implies models are only tools, and one needs to understand biases, as well as deterministic and ensemble forecasting, check... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It's nice to see someone else piss people off for a change. This is why we love you Brick !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It's fun in here tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 That falls under interpreting in my book. hence the imply Edit: and I should have added situational to that also, as one needs to look at the synoptic pattern and determine whether solutions are plausible, or should they be discarded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 That falls under interpreting in my book. So just so were clear if CLT some how gets snow out of this are you going to admit you didn't interpret the models correctly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Some people are having too much fun tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 If CLT gets accumulating snow then certainly I was wrong. Just making sure ...which btw I agree with you it will take something special for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I really think the problem has been that I am saying areas are not likely to get snow that people think are. If it were the opposite, I'd be a beloved poster right now. I would love for anyone to go back before the foothills post and show me where I was disrespectful in any way. Your earlier posts are not the issue. I defended you right before your response to Foothills. Your response to that post was, to be charitable, rather harsh and uncalled for. I'm sure this is not the first time you have had problems in a forum. You seem to enjoy being a drama queen. Why else would you be in here now after "quitting" the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Why are you talking to me then? Funny you can criticize someone for stirring the same pot you have your hand in. EDIT: And how I talk to Foothills is not your concern. As I said, I have apologized to him. I'm pretty sure he's a grown man and can defend himself. You don't have a job do you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Nope. I've got three, all in meteorology. Ah yes three part time jobs. EDIT after reading above: Why would I call you a liar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Nope. I've got three, all in meteorology. Edit: Don't bother calling me a liar, there are two other local mets that post on here that can back me up on that. EDIT 2: Make that three other mets that post on here now. Have you ever worked in the Atlanta area? We need more real meteorologists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I would prefer if you didn't use gay as a negative - it is irresponsible and hurtful - - thanks - I didn't use it as a negative. There are many gay people here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'll tell you one thing, if he/she/it does stay, he/she/it better hope to hell it doesn't snow anywhere in the southeast under 3,000 feet or it'll be the biggest forecast bust on this board since Larry Cosgrove told all the SE mets were weren't going to have an icestorm a few years back .... and nobody could rub it in that he was wrong because we all lost power for week. Those were the days...lol let me get this straight...there's a girl here? Yes... It's nice to see someone else piss people off for a change. :lol: I thought at first I was in the MA regional threads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Low here was supposed to be 34. Already 35.6 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 December 15th 2005 was the event-- was a cold month in general. Had a strong HP over the NE that clearly was CAD--started as natural and turned to hybrid. LC posted there would be no ICE because of the lack of CAD> Huge argument breaks out-- and as the event drew closer the CAD got stronger. At the end, even the mets He always ended his posts with Best Regards. The last one was I hope you get an inch of ice. Best Regards. A Kannapolis, NC man tragically died during that infamous ice storm when an ice laden tree fell on his home while he was watching TV. The photo below shows how the house was obliterated by the tree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Um something about there is NO WAY RDU OR CLT WILL SEE SNOW FROM THIS STORM...take it to the bank folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Um something about there is NO WAY RDU OR CLT WILL SEE SNOW FROM THIS STORM...take it to the bank folks. I have never said that, that is an outright lie. Take this sh!t to the banter thread if we must go there, no need to start it up, bad burger, and please do not start again as we have some 72hr NAM mojo going atm... Edit: never mind, just realized I was in the banter thread, cheers!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Take this sh!t to the banter thread if we must go there, no need to start it up, bad burger, and please do not start again as we have some 72hr NAM mojo going atm... I never said any names and we are in the banter thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'm going to be honest here: I think from KCLT to the coast are in for a mostly rain event. It wouldn't be impossible to see snow at the tail end, but even that is a stretch. I have said since last weekend that this storm did not look good for us in central NC. Why? Because the west-based NAO that allowed our cold high pressures to lock in to the north was not present with this storm, thus the timing of any potential southern stream shortwaves had to link up almost perfectly with a high sliding offshore. Clearly, and is has been clear for days, the high and associated cold air advection is going to be over before this storm ever gets going for us in NC. Every model run, from every model shows this. So please, don't say that I'm just basing this off of one model run, because that couldn't be further from the truth. I'm recognizing that this pattern is not favorable for NC winter storms, and using situational awareness to see that there aren't overly cold temps anywhere in the southeast during the event which would allow "dynamics" to turn us over to heavy, wet snow. Now I won't absolutely say that no one from CLT to the coast won't see snow somewhere during the event, but the likelihood is slim in my eyes. Hey, I've said I agree with you for the most part. Just giving you some ribbing Jesus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I never said any names and we are in the banter thread! just realized that turd... I am way out of whack tonight, AFC/NFC playoffs, but will be back after a quick smoke break to quiz our newly minted Met on what happens underneath sub 536 H5 lows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'm going to be honest here: I think from KCLT to the coast are in for a mostly rain event. It wouldn't be impossible to see snow at the tail end, but even that is a stretch. I have said since last weekend that this storm did not look good for us in central NC. Why? Because the west-based NAO that allowed our cold high pressures to lock in to the north was not present with this storm, thus the timing of any potential southern stream shortwaves had to link up almost perfectly with a high sliding offshore. Clearly, and is has been clear for days, the high and associated cold air advection is going to be over before this storm ever gets going for us in NC. Every model run, from every model shows this. So please, don't say that I'm just basing this off of one model run, because that couldn't be further from the truth. I'm recognizing that this pattern is not favorable for NC winter storms, and using situational awareness to see that there aren't overly cold temps anywhere in the southeast during the event which would allow "dynamics" to turn us over to heavy, wet snow. Now I won't absolutely say that no one from CLT to the coast won't see snow somewhere during the event, but the likelihood is slim in my eyes. Let's look at the facts: even with a perfectly modeled track, everyone from RDU east is mostly, if not entirely, rain from every model. Sure, there may be some hint that we could end as snow, but I have seen that song and dance before. It is likely the dendritic growth zone will dry out before RDU east would be cold enough to support snow. By 18z on Wednesday, the temperatures have soared back into the mid 40's from both the NAM and GFS. There is absolutely no evidence to support the fact that they are totally wrong...there isn't any big cold air to the north that could be advected in to change this fact. Folks, I really believe the writing is on the wall and there is no need to get overly hopeful about a pattern that isn't likely to yield a big snow for central and eastern NC (and even out to KCLT in my book). Lastly, I do not think that KCLT will fair much, if any better than KRDU. Why? The CAD wedge is not very well established by the time precip arrives, and with the amount of WAA associated with this low, the wedge should be eroded fairly quickly out to KCLT. Let's pretend the wedge holds, well 950 temps are forecasted to be at 6.0C+ on both the NAM and GFS by the time precip really starts coming in...which would still yield rain! The argument that both models are way too warm at this level doesn't hold much water in my view, as there isn't much colder temps to the north or west. Honestly, there is no way both of these models are going to blow temps across the entire eastern seaboard by that much. Now, by the end of the event I suppose a near isothermal layer could setup somewhere under the deformation band, and this area might have the potential for some very wet snow, with ratios of 5:1 at best, but I just don't see much support for it in the model soundings I have seen. I don't have access to the euro, so that is the one model that could be colder. Even so, I stand by everything I have said. That was my opinion, and there was nothing wrong with it and I stand by it still. The 12z run of the Euro came in warmer today. Last nights run for western NC was just above freezing at 850 and below as you went up and only 2c at 925 which is around the elevation of most Mtn valley's. Today it had a warm nose from 850 to 800 of about 1.5c. Hope it trends colder and looks like the nam temp's back this way. This might not help you as I have not looked at anything other than the western NC Mtns. Just giving out some euro temp info above 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 just realized that turd... I am way out of whack tonight, AFC/NFC playoffs, but will be back after a quick smoke break to quiz our newly minted Met on what happens underneath sub 536 H5 lows... Hope to see a good read when I wake up in the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Rain if it isn't cold enough at the low levels. Alright, and this is based largely on the operational European over the past two runs. Sub 540 entering NC around Laurinburg, and off the coast near Elizabeth City at <536, say 534dm'ish, what happens under and just to the west of its track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.