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January 24th-26th potential winter storm part 2


Hoosier

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You know this is going to be a very unstable pattern to forecast for, being a northern stream wave and high amplitude pattern that this has bust written all over it i can't believe the model consensus for this event though. It's like every model can sniff this one out from 7 days out. That wave is going to mean business though, i haven't seen a northern stream wave strengthen as much as the models have shown since since i can remember (gfs has 980mb) from a purely northern stream wave.

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You know this is going to be a very unstable pattern to forecast for, being a northern stream wave and high amplitude pattern that this has bust written all over it i can't believe the model consensus for this event though. It's like every model can sniff this one out from 7 days out. That wave is going to mean business though, i haven't seen a northern stream wave strengthen as much as the models have shown since since i can remember (gfs has 980mb) from a purely northern stream wave.

i've been pumped for 2 days now for this event.

I think the real unbiased start would be beau, other than the front coming through dry he couldn't benefit much from this. Beau it is.

I can start it if Prinsburg_wx doesn't want to. Prinsburg has 5 minutes to reply--otherwise Stebo and Hoosier will break cmichweather's kneecaps and fingers.

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yeah right...lol. i'm riding the 20110122 12z JMA takes the L down to e IL with .5+ qpf :lol:

LOL all good the mojo has the met's spooked right now i don't think any of us have been lucky lately. Baro's cold thread got squashed, and i called for a phased storm across the middle of the country for a spread the wealth storm but it ended up way east.

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go ahead and start it...you would make more sense on explaining and analysis than i would.

LOL all good the mojo has the met's spooked right now i don't think any of us have been lucky lately. Baro's cold thread got squashed, and i called for a phased storm across the middle of the country for a spread the wealth storm but it ended up way east.

I will start it if Hoosier isn't already. The power of the internetz shows Hoosier writing but not in a thread--so he may be starting it already.

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I will start it if Hoosier isn't already. The power of the internetz shows Hoosier writing but not in a thread--so he may be starting it already.

haha nice w/e you write its gonna be a fun event regardless of cyclogensis that arctic front is gonna be a blockbuster, especially coming from the previous temps. We might be in the upper 20s on Friday and be -20,-30 on Sunday morning.

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haha nice w/e you write its gonna be a fun event regardless of cyclogensis that arctic front is gonna be a blockbuster, especially coming from the previous temps. We might be in the upper 20s on Friday and be -20,-30 on Sunday morning.

I am wimping out--I don't know if I want to start it now. I may wait until I see 12Z stuff.

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now i'm being selfish but i would certainly talk about winds as being the "MAIN" concern for our midwest posters i'm fairly confident no one gets any major accums. from this strong but form a met strand point the winds are basically the focal point of this event unless you are far north along the arctic frontal boundary. Maybe the upper ND/MN corridor gets a few inches but if this front comes down as progged open country will be shut down for a few days.

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Someone start the next fail thread before me and Hoosier do start regulating on some kneecaps :)

I told everyone you're the godfather, just post a pic of you holding a mizuno steel bat. This certainly isn't a big snow producer event but the MW is going to see a pretty rare event with the wind/arctic front, you don't have this sort of event every winter.

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I told everyone you're the godfather, just post a pic of you holding a mizuno steel bat. This certainly isn't a big snow producer event but the MW is going to see a pretty rare event with the wind/arctic front, you don't have this sort of event every winter.

what kind of winds we talking about?...i'm hoping we don't warm too much this week that puts a good cap on the snowcover

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I'm not even sure this belongs in this thread :unsure: , but a fairly decent change from the 0z to 12z NAM with the current snow in MO and then moving east tomorrow. Pay special attention to just north of STL. 0z run had little...12z run has a few spots of 0.25". :arrowhead:

0z run 36 hour total QPF through 0z Tuesday.

nam_p36_048s.gif

12z run

nam_p36_036s.gif

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People can defend them, and I agree that they are a good tool, but not when they're like this. Huge shifts like that from run to run make it impossible to forecast. Period. Yea I noticed that too Chicago.

:huh:

None of the models have made *HUGE* shifts yet.

In fact they've been handling the general evolution of this storm very well (ride the gulf coast and cut NE and track somewhere east of the Appalachians).

It's natural to expect incremental cha-chaing, but nothing major in the model depictions of this storm has changed in the past 3 days.

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:huh:

None of the models have made *HUGE* shifts yet.

In fact they've been handling the general evolution of this storm very well (ride the gulf coast and cut NE and track somewhere east of the Appalachians).

It's natural to expect incremental cha-chaing, but nothing major in the model depictions of this storm has changed in the past 3 days.

Meh, 6z runs were quite a difference compared to 0z especially the gfs. You should read JB's blog this morning. He's ranting big time, I got a laugh out of it.

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