baroclinic_instability Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 LOL no hoosier might bring bad mojo he's to far east i think you are next in line to start a thread for a weather event. He might weenie cast the arctic blizzard/front right into the great lakes. I say Prinsburgwx starts it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 You know this is going to be a very unstable pattern to forecast for, being a northern stream wave and high amplitude pattern that this has bust written all over it i can't believe the model consensus for this event though. It's like every model can sniff this one out from 7 days out. That wave is going to mean business though, i haven't seen a northern stream wave strengthen as much as the models have shown since since i can remember (gfs has 980mb) from a purely northern stream wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 i've been pumped for 2 days now for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I think the real unbiased start would be beau, other than the front coming through dry he couldn't benefit much from this. Beau it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 You know this is going to be a very unstable pattern to forecast for, being a northern stream wave and high amplitude pattern that this has bust written all over it i can't believe the model consensus for this event though. It's like every model can sniff this one out from 7 days out. That wave is going to mean business though, i haven't seen a northern stream wave strengthen as much as the models have shown since since i can remember (gfs has 980mb) from a purely northern stream wave. i've been pumped for 2 days now for this event. I think the real unbiased start would be beau, other than the front coming through dry he couldn't benefit much from this. Beau it is. I can start it if Prinsburg_wx doesn't want to. Prinsburg has 5 minutes to reply--otherwise Stebo and Hoosier will break cmichweather's kneecaps and fingers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I say Prinsburgwx starts it. yeah right...lol. i'm riding the 20110122 12z JMA takes the L down to e IL with .5+ qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I can start it if Prinsburg_wx doesn't want to. Prinsburg has 5 minutes to reply--otherwise Stebo and Hoosier will break cmichweather's kneecaps and fingers. go ahead and start it...you would make more sense on explaining and analysis than i would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 yeah right...lol. i'm riding the 20110122 12z JMA takes the L down to e IL with .5+ qpf LOL all good the mojo has the met's spooked right now i don't think any of us have been lucky lately. Baro's cold thread got squashed, and i called for a phased storm across the middle of the country for a spread the wealth storm but it ended up way east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 go ahead and start it...you would make more sense on explaining and analysis than i would. LOL all good the mojo has the met's spooked right now i don't think any of us have been lucky lately. Baro's cold thread got squashed, and i called for a phased storm across the middle of the country for a spread the wealth storm but it ended up way east. I will start it if Hoosier isn't already. The power of the internetz shows Hoosier writing but not in a thread--so he may be starting it already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I will start it if Hoosier isn't already. The power of the internetz shows Hoosier writing but not in a thread--so he may be starting it already. haha nice w/e you write its gonna be a fun event regardless of cyclogensis that arctic front is gonna be a blockbuster, especially coming from the previous temps. We might be in the upper 20s on Friday and be -20,-30 on Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 haha nice w/e you write its gonna be a fun event regardless of cyclogensis that arctic front is gonna be a blockbuster, especially coming from the previous temps. We might be in the upper 20s on Friday and be -20,-30 on Sunday morning. I am wimping out--I don't know if I want to start it now. I may wait until I see 12Z stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I am wimping out--I don't know if I want to start it now. I may wait until I see 12Z stuff. i agree, give it another set of model runs and if it's still there than have at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Someone start the next fail thread before me and Hoosier do start regulating on some kneecaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 now i'm being selfish but i would certainly talk about winds as being the "MAIN" concern for our midwest posters i'm fairly confident no one gets any major accums. from this strong but form a met strand point the winds are basically the focal point of this event unless you are far north along the arctic frontal boundary. Maybe the upper ND/MN corridor gets a few inches but if this front comes down as progged open country will be shut down for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Someone start the next fail thread before me and Hoosier do start regulating on some kneecaps I told everyone you're the godfather, just post a pic of you holding a mizuno steel bat. This certainly isn't a big snow producer event but the MW is going to see a pretty rare event with the wind/arctic front, you don't have this sort of event every winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I told everyone you're the godfather, just post a pic of you holding a mizuno steel bat. This certainly isn't a big snow producer event but the MW is going to see a pretty rare event with the wind/arctic front, you don't have this sort of event every winter. what kind of winds we talking about?...i'm hoping we don't warm too much this week that puts a good cap on the snowcover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Hoosier finally ended it and started a thread. cmichweather's knees have been saved--and we no longer need to hijack this thread. Stebo and Hoosier can now cancel their plane tickets to Grand Forks, ND to hunt down cmichweather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITblizz Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 NAM fail.. Slowed down dramatically. In time for another high to come in ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 6z NAM looks slower and weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I think models are still clueless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Flow is split on this one, for what its worth, it would be a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 06z GFS went in reverse on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 just checked 6z where's the storm closed low idea got killed on the gfs, nam, and nogaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 just checked 6z where's the storm closed low idea got killed on the gfs, nam, and nogaps. That is why people get annoyed and start saying the models suck. Huge shifts from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 That is why people get annoyed and start saying the models suck. Huge shifts from run to run. I'm sorry...but I agree...they are handling this like garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'm not even sure this belongs in this thread , but a fairly decent change from the 0z to 12z NAM with the current snow in MO and then moving east tomorrow. Pay special attention to just north of STL. 0z run had little...12z run has a few spots of 0.25". 0z run 36 hour total QPF through 0z Tuesday. 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'm sorry...but I agree...they are handling this like garbage. People can defend them, and I agree that they are a good tool, but not when they're like this. Huge shifts like that from run to run make it impossible to forecast. Period. Yea I noticed that too Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 12z 0z Looks slower compared to 0z at 72hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 People can defend them, and I agree that they are a good tool, but not when they're like this. Huge shifts like that from run to run make it impossible to forecast. Period. Yea I noticed that too Chicago. None of the models have made *HUGE* shifts yet. In fact they've been handling the general evolution of this storm very well (ride the gulf coast and cut NE and track somewhere east of the Appalachians). It's natural to expect incremental cha-chaing, but nothing major in the model depictions of this storm has changed in the past 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 None of the models have made *HUGE* shifts yet. In fact they've been handling the general evolution of this storm very well (ride the gulf coast and cut NE and track somewhere east of the Appalachians). It's natural to expect incremental cha-chaing, but nothing major in the model depictions of this storm has changed in the past 3 days. Meh, 6z runs were quite a difference compared to 0z especially the gfs. You should read JB's blog this morning. He's ranting big time, I got a laugh out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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