snowstormcanuck Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 did you not look at the trends at 0z, Canuck? Yes, there's been some movement, but nothing that suggests to me that the evolution of the storm is going to be drastically more favorable for us. Although, my pessimism is driven by mby. Higher latitude = more difficult to get this done. Obviously you OH folks have the best chance of all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yes, there's been some movement, but nothing that suggests to me that the evolution of the storm is going to be drastically more favorable for us. Although, my pessimism is driven by mby. Higher latitude = more difficult to get this done. Obviously you OH folks have the best chance of all of us. OKAY OKAY Fair enough, well come back and join in if things change, I know youre going to still watch the models. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 we have a nao finally going towards neutral positive and the block from hell is gone. It's a different met period we are in right now. You can't compare everything with the past. Central OH had been whiffed all season long....2 days ago we got the brunt of that 'storm'....granted brunt is described as 4-5", but brunt none the less. Things do change. Ehh, the models are trying to temporarily form the trough swinging over the eastern Lakes now into a block, which may be part of why the models refused to have our storm taking on a negative tilt west of the Apps. However, the 0z models so far are trending more towards actually showing a closed off/negative tilted storm west enough to potentially have an impact on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 finally..... that's the spirit The bad news is it's gone from a 1 to a 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Ok, I've made it known I'm in the nay camp. Won't rain on your parade any further. Keep fighting the good fight. i was just mess'n with you. i hope you know that. Every snowstorm is a rarity....so why dwell on the many things that can always go wrong and not discuss the possibilities when they present themselves, and yes, this has possibilities. When was the last true, gulf-born storm this season?? Chances are always greater than not that a snowstorm won't occur, that's a given. In fact not one model has yet put precip over us except for the nam, and that was barely. I want to discuss the opportunities. That's all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GGEM looks like it takes the low Across southern TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 massive rainstorm lol the cutoff is the trend tonite. I know some say that's a good thing but to me it seems like it would cause the low to head more east and not north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The GEM makes me a little excited lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The GEM makes me a little excited lol Denied... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 i was just mess'n with you. i hope you know that. Every snowstorm is a rarity....so why dwell on the many things that can always go wrong and not discuss the possibilities when they present themselves, and yes, this has possibilities. When was the last true, gulf-born storm this season?? Chances are always greater than not that a snowstorm won't occur, that's a given. In fact not one model has yet put precip over us except for the nam, and that was barely. I want to discuss the opportunities. That's all Yeah, I knew you were kidding. It's a fine line between being rational and objective, and dwelling on the negative stuff. I'm hugging that line now. I'll try my best not to get all Alek on you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The bad news is it's gone from a 1 to a 2. If you are going up one point then I have went from a 1 to a 1.5 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The GEM makes me a little excited lol precip is insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 If you are going up one point then I have went from a 1 to a 1.5 lol Should be 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GGEM went East correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yeah, I knew you were kidding. It's a fine line between being rational and objective, and dwelling on the negative stuff. I'm hugging that line now. I'll try my best not to get all Alek on you. lol...appreciate it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GGEM went East correct? correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 massive rainstorm lol the cutoff is the trend tonite. I know some say that's a good thing but to me it seems like it would cause the low to head more east and not north Yea but the GEM doesnt handle temps very well I thought? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 precip is insane Lol...what's it show here buckeye? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yea but the GEM doesnt handle temps very well I thought? least of my worries.... so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 massive rainstorm lol the cutoff is the trend tonite. I know some say that's a good thing but to me it seems like it would cause the low to head more east and not north This was something I was wondering about out loud yesterday. Is it possible that this cuts off enough to where it's going to drastically limit the areal extent of snow on the western side? That is looking more and more possible if you believe the latest runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Lol...what's it show here buckeye? precip shield gets to ohio river then just to your southeast. Either way, it might have been rain anyways..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 precip shield gets to ohio river then just to your southeast. Either way, it might have been rain anyways..lol welp, Im definitely staying up for the euro. The other models have sniffed something out, now lets see if the euro comes in with the correct track to lead the reast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 This was something I was wondering about out loud yesterday. Is it possible that this cuts off enough to where it's going to drastically limit the areal extent of snow on the western side? That is looking more and more possible if you believe the latest runs. you mean the precip doesn't get wrapped around the north? that does make sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 welp, Im definitely staying up for the euro. The other models have sniffed something out, now lets see if the euro comes in with the correct track to lead the reast. it'll be a victory if it can at least give us some precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 My guess the Euro will look like other globals. Show the cutoff, but lose the child. you never know with dr no. could suppress as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 you never know with dr no. could suppress as well. Im going with a major snowstorm.... Somewhere close lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GFS ensemble mean at 96 draws the 0.25" isohyet from Portsmouth, OH to Elmira, NY. That's a good couple of hundred miles NW of the OP GFS's 0.25" isohyet. Indicative that there's a fair bit of spread to the NW among the individual members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GFS ensemble mean at 96 draws the 0.25" isohyet from Portsmouth, OH to Elmira, NY. That's a good couple of hundred miles NW of the OP GFS's 0.25" isohyet. Indicative that there's a fair bit of spread to the NW among the individual members. was just gonna post that. Especially nice considering this might be the first time tracking this that the ensembles were WEST of the op on any model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 from other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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