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January 24th-26th potential winter storm part 2


Hoosier

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gfs cuts it off very far south....should bowl east, northeast

Pretty much. Nothing there to capture it and bring it north. Thus no system on the backside dropping in out of Canada. It is there but weaker and slower and thus acts more like a kicker instead. So at this moment in time we need help via the north.

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The key trend tonight is that the energy may cutoff so far......................that is the good news. Anything after it is subject to change.

I can't give the GFS much dime right now. It was sooooooooo far off.

how you feelin about eastcoast or ots...either or?

im standing firmly in app runner or possibly even a bit west

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Pretty much. Nothing there to capture it and bring it north. Thus no system on the backside dropping in out of Canada. It is there but weaker and slower and thus acts more like a kicker instead. So at this moment in time we need help via the north.

Yea I am not advanced enough to know whether a system to the north will kick it east, capture it and bring it west, or possibly just be pushed out of the way. Its obvious anyone west of say columbus is pretty much out of the game so enjoy tracking this thing the rest of the way. TC y'all.

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Looks like a phase of some type is going to happen. Inland all the way, where inland is the key. The fact the energy may slowdown and cutoff is HUGE. It gives you a shot. Right now, still a NAMesque Coastal plain track. Not alot of cold air with this one, that is for sure.

speaking of warm air. One thing i've noticed on the nam and gfs is that cold air comes right back into the storm as they move north. This is really prevalent in the gfs panels

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I was about ready to write this off after last night's 0z runs, but the models now slowing this down and cutting this off as the energy begins to get sampled is a good sign. I'm still not sure if this will be enough or not, but with a possible phase a track near the Apps on either side is still on the table still, just need a phase to happen with the energy cutting off and going negative tilt well before the Apps. The UKMET though looking at the images posted might still kick this east just in time to keep it east of much of Ohio with the northern stream shortwave on our storm's heels.

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So far

NAM-West

GFS-West

UKMET-West

NOGPAS-????

CMC-????

EURO/THE KING-???????????

None of these are so far west that were excited yet but west enough that we hope its a trend.

ehh Nam is close. And I loved the track of the 12z GEM, I didnt quite understand the precip shield though.

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I was about ready to write this off after last night's 0z runs, but the models now slowing this down and cutting this off as the energy begins to get sampled is a good sign. I'm still not sure if this will be enough or not, but with a possible phase a track near the Apps on either side is still on the table still, just need a phase to happen with the energy cutting off and going negative tilt well before the Apps. The UKMET though looking at the images posted might still kick this east just in time to keep it east of much of Ohio with the northern stream shortwave on our storm's heels.

not getting how anyone could write off anything 96hrs+ ....especially this winter

i seriously think anyone from Hoosierland to the piedmont is in this

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The shift on the 00z runs could be significant. Comparing the 00z to the 12z/18z it's fairly drastic for a 6/12 hour difference for a storm just a few days away. I still doubt this comes far enough west to get me but I suppose my interest level just went up a point on a scale of 1-10.

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not getting how anyone could write off anything 96hrs+ ....especially this winter

i seriously think anyone from Hoosierland to the piedmont is in this

Don't get this part buckeye. The seasonal trend is for northern stream domination, with quick hitting, low impact events. Southern stream phasing has been all but absent. If this was 3 years ago, I wouldn't have thrown in the napkin yet, but based on how storms have evolved this winter I think the chances this storm brings substantial snows west of the Apps, north of the OH river, is remote.

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The shift on the 00z runs could be significant. Comparing the 00z to the 12z/18z it's fairly drastic for a 6/12 hour difference for a storm just a few days away. I still doubt this comes far enough west to get me but I suppose my interest level just went up a point on a scale of 1-10.

finally.....

that's the spirit

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Don't get this part buckeye. The seasonal trend is for northern stream domination, with quick hitting, low impact events. Southern stream phasing has been all but absent. If this was 3 years ago, I wouldn't have thrown in the napkin yet, but based on how storms have evolved this winter I think the chances this storm brings substantial snows west of the Apps, north of the OH river, is remote.

duely noted...

go back to bed :P

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Don't get this part buckeye. The seasonal trend is for northern stream domination, with quick hitting, low impact events. Southern stream phasing has been all but absent. If this was 3 years ago, I wouldn't have thrown in the napkin yet, but based on how storms have evolved this winter I think the chances this storm brings substantial snows west of the Apps, north of the OH river, is remote.

did you not look at the trends at 0z, Canuck?

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not getting how anyone could write off anything 96hrs+ ....especially this winter

i seriously think anyone from Hoosierland to the piedmont is in this

The trend was not going our way, nor has it the whole season although I hadn't written the thing completely off. The only reason to still have hope was how the models were digging the trough well to our west but were just pure crap from there. The models (that are out) are amplifying things even more now though west of the Apps so there is still definitely potential.

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The trend was not going our way, nor has it the whole season although I hadn't written the thing completely off. The only reason to still have hope was how the models were digging the trough well to our west but were just pure crap from there. The models (that are out) are amplifying things even more now though west of the Apps so there is still definitely potential.

we have a nao finally going towards neutral positive and the block from hell is gone. It's a different met period we are in right now. You can't compare everything with the past. Central OH had been whiffed all season long....2 days ago we got the brunt of that 'storm'....granted brunt is described as 4-5", but brunt none the less. Things do change.

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