buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 gfs through 60 is obviously digging the energy further SW but the heights along the EC arent really amplifying all that well not sure how this will turn out. gfs cuts it off very far south....should bowl east, northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 gfs cuts it off very far south....should bowl east, northeast yeah i dont see this coming north big changes though from previous run no doubt things are still volatile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 gfs looks like its playing catchup to the nam...similar to nam 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 gfs cuts it off very far south....should bowl east, northeast Yep NE it was. Got about to Charleston, WV with the precip shield. Similar to the NAM, but not as far west.. But better than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 what causes it to cut off and what are the ramifications? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 gfs cuts it off very far south....should bowl east, northeast Pretty much. Nothing there to capture it and bring it north. Thus no system on the backside dropping in out of Canada. It is there but weaker and slower and thus acts more like a kicker instead. So at this moment in time we need help via the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The key trend tonight is that the energy may cutoff so far......................that is the good news. Anything after it is subject to change. I can't give the GFS much dime right now. It was sooooooooo far off. how you feelin about eastcoast or ots...either or? im standing firmly in app runner or possibly even a bit west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 how you feelin about eastcoast or ots...either or? im standing firmly in app runner or possibly even a bit west Bring on the GEM... Hopefully it stays the course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Pretty much. Nothing there to capture it and bring it north. Thus no system on the backside dropping in out of Canada. It is there but weaker and slower and thus acts more like a kicker instead. So at this moment in time we need help via the north. Yea I am not advanced enough to know whether a system to the north will kick it east, capture it and bring it west, or possibly just be pushed out of the way. Its obvious anyone west of say columbus is pretty much out of the game so enjoy tracking this thing the rest of the way. TC y'all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 uk cuts off as well but might have a bit more northern stream involved....a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 00Z UKMET HR 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Looks like a phase of some type is going to happen. Inland all the way, where inland is the key. The fact the energy may slowdown and cutoff is HUGE. It gives you a shot. Right now, still a NAMesque Coastal plain track. Not alot of cold air with this one, that is for sure. speaking of warm air. One thing i've noticed on the nam and gfs is that cold air comes right back into the storm as they move north. This is really prevalent in the gfs panels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I was about ready to write this off after last night's 0z runs, but the models now slowing this down and cutting this off as the energy begins to get sampled is a good sign. I'm still not sure if this will be enough or not, but with a possible phase a track near the Apps on either side is still on the table still, just need a phase to happen with the energy cutting off and going negative tilt well before the Apps. The UKMET though looking at the images posted might still kick this east just in time to keep it east of much of Ohio with the northern stream shortwave on our storm's heels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 So far NAM-West GFS-West UKMET-West NOGPAS-???? CMC-???? EURO/THE KING-??????????? None of these are so far west that were excited yet but west enough that we hope its a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 So far NAM-West GFS-West UKMET-West NOGPAS-???? CMC-???? EURO/THE KING-??????????? None of these are so far west that were excited yet but west enough that we hope its a trend. ehh Nam is close. And I loved the track of the 12z GEM, I didnt quite understand the precip shield though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 So far NAM-West GFS-West UKMET-West NOGPAS-???? CMC-???? EURO/THE KING-??????????? None of these are so far west that were excited yet but west enough that we hope its a trend. nogaps way east....even a miss for the MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 If the CMC can stay the same or trend a bit west that will be a good thing. Man who is going to stay up for the EURO? Edited: By the idiot that doesn't pay attention to his typing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I was about ready to write this off after last night's 0z runs, but the models now slowing this down and cutting this off as the energy begins to get sampled is a good sign. I'm still not sure if this will be enough or not, but with a possible phase a track near the Apps on either side is still on the table still, just need a phase to happen with the energy cutting off and going negative tilt well before the Apps. The UKMET though looking at the images posted might still kick this east just in time to keep it east of much of Ohio with the northern stream shortwave on our storm's heels. not getting how anyone could write off anything 96hrs+ ....especially this winter i seriously think anyone from Hoosierland to the piedmont is in this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 If the CMC cant stay the same or trent a bit west that will be a good thing. Man who is going to stay up for the EURO? LOL I am staying up for the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 So far NAM-West GFS-West UKMET-West NOGPAS-???? CMC-???? EURO/THE KING-??????????? None of these are so far west that were excited yet but west enough that we hope its a trend. what time does cmc come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 The shift on the 00z runs could be significant. Comparing the 00z to the 12z/18z it's fairly drastic for a 6/12 hour difference for a storm just a few days away. I still doubt this comes far enough west to get me but I suppose my interest level just went up a point on a scale of 1-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 not getting how anyone could write off anything 96hrs+ ....especially this winter i seriously think anyone from Hoosierland to the piedmont is in this Don't get this part buckeye. The seasonal trend is for northern stream domination, with quick hitting, low impact events. Southern stream phasing has been all but absent. If this was 3 years ago, I wouldn't have thrown in the napkin yet, but based on how storms have evolved this winter I think the chances this storm brings substantial snows west of the Apps, north of the OH river, is remote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 LOL I am staying up for the EURO yeah that ws me not paying much attention to my typing.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The shift on the 00z runs could be significant. Comparing the 00z to the 12z/18z it's fairly drastic for a 6/12 hour difference for a storm just a few days away. I still doubt this comes far enough west to get me but I suppose my interest level just went up a point on a scale of 1-10. finally..... that's the spirit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Don't get this part buckeye. The seasonal trend is for northern stream domination, with quick hitting, low impact events. Southern stream phasing has been all but absent. If this was 3 years ago, I wouldn't have thrown in the napkin yet, but based on how storms have evolved this winter I think the chances this storm brings substantial snows west of the Apps, north of the OH river, is remote. duely noted... go back to bed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Don't get this part buckeye. The seasonal trend is for northern stream domination, with quick hitting, low impact events. Southern stream phasing has been all but absent. If this was 3 years ago, I wouldn't have thrown in the napkin yet, but based on how storms have evolved this winter I think the chances this storm brings substantial snows west of the Apps, north of the OH river, is remote. did you not look at the trends at 0z, Canuck? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 not getting how anyone could write off anything 96hrs+ ....especially this winter i seriously think anyone from Hoosierland to the piedmont is in this The trend was not going our way, nor has it the whole season although I hadn't written the thing completely off. The only reason to still have hope was how the models were digging the trough well to our west but were just pure crap from there. The models (that are out) are amplifying things even more now though west of the Apps so there is still definitely potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 duely noted... go back to bed Ok, I've made it known I'm in the nay camp. Won't rain on your parade any further. Keep fighting the good fight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The trend was not going our way, nor has it the whole season although I hadn't written the thing completely off. The only reason to still have hope was how the models were digging the trough well to our west but were just pure crap from there. The models (that are out) are amplifying things even more now though west of the Apps so there is still definitely potential. we have a nao finally going towards neutral positive and the block from hell is gone. It's a different met period we are in right now. You can't compare everything with the past. Central OH had been whiffed all season long....2 days ago we got the brunt of that 'storm'....granted brunt is described as 4-5", but brunt none the less. Things do change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Im happy as long as long as the i 95 weenies and the big cities get nothing. CBUS and Pitt can get buried for all I care... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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