dilly84 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 starting to look like november 1950 :weenie: Oh jeeze.. Sorry but I don't think so Buckeye. I wish! On the storm's west side, nearly a foot of snow fell on Dayton, Ohio, which combined with the wind and cold temperatures, became their worst blizzard on record. [9] Nearly the entire state was blanketed with 10 inches (25 cm) of snow, with 20-30 inches (50–75 cm) being measured in eastern sections of Ohio. The highest report was 44 inches (110 cm) from Steubenville. [10] Snow drifts were up to 25 feet (7.6 m) deep. Winds exceeded 40 miles per hour (64 km/ h) with gusts as high as 60 miles per hour Not sure I see that happening lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Oh jeeze.. Sorry but I don't think so Buckeye. I wish! On the storm's west side, nearly a foot of snow fell on Dayton, Ohio, which combined with the wind and cold temperatures, became their worst blizzard on record. [9] Nearly the entire state was blanketed with 10 inches (25 cm) of snow, with 20-30 inches (50–75 cm) being measured in eastern sections of Ohio. The highest report was 44 inches (110 cm) from Steubenville. [10] Snow drifts were up to 25 feet (7.6 m) deep. Winds exceeded 40 miles per hour (64 km/ h) with gusts as high as 60 miles per hour Not sure I see that happening lol thus the weenies....lol i was referring to the slow wet bomb over the apps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I was noticing that. Someone between Memphis and Nashville receives 12"+ easy on this run. I'll give up on weather entirely if that happens. All rain for Memphis...not even close. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_KMEM.txt Nashville, at least 95% rain. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_KBNA.txt It's purely a southern cut-off on the NAM. Cold air be in short supply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 If only the western/west coast ridge was further west. Oh the possibilities... Yep but it is trying which is a bit surprising and thus to be watched especially if the other models go in this direction. Still have that issue i mentioned a page or so back. Thus we also need that little blocker to move just a little bit quicker out of the way. That way this system can do what it is attempting to down in GA back in say N.AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 thus the weenies....lol i was referring to the slow wet bomb over the apps Yea I know you didn't mean exact, but I had to say something. GFS will be better I say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 All rain for Memphis...not even close. http://68.226.77.253...km/NAM_KMEM.txt Nashville, at least 95% rain. http://68.226.77.253...km/NAM_KBNA.txt It's purely a southern cut-off on the NAM. Cold air be in short supply. The thermal profiles are VERY marginal. Verbatim it's rain, but given the UVV and the ULL overhead it wouldn't take much at all to flip that over to snow, which is what many of the NWS branches down there have been discussing already. I did exaggerate a bit with the 12"+, but the potential is certainly there for a nice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yea I know you didn't mean exact, but I had to say something. GFS will be better I say. if this were 3 or more winters ago...i'd look at that nam map and my mouth would be watering knowing in full confidence those bright blues would be over cmh in the next few runs. This winter it has just as much chance of reversing back east. but i'm still optimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 charleston wv would probably be the sweet spot on this run..... a foot plus of wet snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 if this were 3 or more winters ago...i'd look at that nam map and my mouth would be watering knowing in full confidence those bright blues would be over cmh in the next few runs. This winter it has just as much chance of reversing back east. but i'm still optimistic Yea last storm NAM showed a full phase lol.. Interesting to see what the other models do. Should be getting sampled on shore now though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The thermal profiles are VERY marginal. Verbatim it's rain, but given the UVV and the ULL overhead it wouldn't take much at all to flip that over to snow, which is what many of the NWS branches down have been discussing already. Very marginal? C'mon, MEM is sitting at +2.4C at 950 at 66 hours. Looks at the wetbulb heights. Sure the column is cooling, dynamically, but it's 75% rain before a switchover to snow. Hardly a 12"+ storm for them. Lower levels are scorching when the precip begins. This all via the NAM though. As usual we tread with an extreme amount of caution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Very marginal? C'mon, MEM is sitting at +2.4C at 950 at 66 hours. Looks at the wetbulb heights. Sure the column is cooling, dynamically, but it's 75% rain before a switchover to snow. Hardly a 12"+ storm for them. Lower levels are scorching when the precip begins. See my edit to the post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 rgem looks a lot like the nam at 48....could even debate that the trough is sharper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Man that is close to bad its the 84hr nam lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 See my edit to the post. Yep, too late for my post. I got you. Regardless, it could be a rain to snow scenario for those places...alas, storm location/strength/yada yada TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yea last storm NAM showed a full phase lol.. Interesting to see what the other models do. Should be getting sampled on shore now though.. About half of this storm is over land for the 0Z analysis--but it really won't be fully inland until 12Z. Here is the 0Z 300 hpa height field/satellite: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 About half of this storm is over land for the 0Z analysis--but it really won't be fully inland until 12Z. Here is the 0Z 300 hpa height field/satellite: Quick question. Would that be the main system or the *supposed* kicker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 rgem looks a lot like the nam at 48....could even debate that the trough is sharper Going for the ever elusive quintuple bunner tonight? First a Nov 1950 mention...next, what's the 0z CRAS spitting out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Quick question. Would that be the main system or the *supposed* kicker? The beast passing over British Columbia is the projected wave that will develop into the storm threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Quick question. Would that be the main system or the *supposed* kicker? That second jet streak around 40N 160W is the "kicker" you are referencing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 if this were 3 or more winters ago...i'd look at that nam map and my mouth would be watering knowing in full confidence those bright blues would be over cmh in the next few runs. This winter it has just as much chance of reversing back east. but i'm still optimistic Nah, you'd be worrying about rain...and Hoosier and I would be already sweating p-type concerns. NW trend, why have thou deserted us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 LOL! Who is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 fwiw: 0Z jma goes out to 72 but looks like the nam and maybe a tad west of the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 fwiw: 0Z jma goes out to 72 but looks like the nam and maybe a tad west of the nam looks a LOT like the uk at 72 as well.... Harry pick up the white courtesy phone....Harry to the white courtesy phone please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 hour 60, maybe that high pressure in the carolinas will force it west? LOL grasping for straws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 geebus, by the end of the night im gonna be hoping for an east trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 gfs through 60 is obviously digging the energy further SW but the heights along the EC arent really amplifying all that well not sure how this will turn out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 geebus, by the end of the night im gonna be hoping for an east trend wouldnt that be something funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 geebus, by the end of the night im gonna be hoping for an east trend Nah, looks like we still want a west trend based on the 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 hr 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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