baroclinic_instability Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I think you shouldn't take things too serious when such comments are made about the models. I hope all knows that despite the changes we often see in modeling that overall they are great tools. I as well think that sometimes people get caught up in the moment and thus reasoning goes out the door. Thus why you see that happen with the models suck comments etc even from the Pro's. Great discussion. Thanks. And I don't take it too seriously--but I do take meteorology seriously I am all for informing and clearing up myths whenever I can. I don't expect others to be as gung-ho as I am--but I like to be helpful and informational if I can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 It isn't so much models suck this year, moreso that its taking so long to get good consensus between them. When you have so many models showing different things, it leads one to believe that they suck, even though they don't. Good point on the data explosion. One problem is simply too much data--and some folks just can't process it all. In reality--there are key features we can track and key into. CRAS/DGEX/JMA/UK/Korean/German models etc are simply worthless. All people really need are the Euro/GFS/SREF and the global ensembles with a little NAM every now and then--and MOS too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Good point on the data explosion. One problem is simply too much data--and some folks just can't process it all. In reality--there are key features we can track and key into. CRAS/DGEX/JMA/UK/Korean/German models etc are simply worthless. All people really need are the Euro/GFS/SREF and the global ensembles with a little NAM every now and then--and MOS too. I think the others can be useful as well but this gets into knowing what their biases are. That's me though. I do agree with the rest of what you say though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 looks like omaha got nailed while i sit on 1.3" so far 0800 PM SNOW OMAHA 41.26N 96.01W 01/22/2011 M6.3 INCH DOUGLAS NE NWS EMPLOYEE WESTERN OMAHA SUBURBS. 6 TO 6.7 INCHES FROM THREE DIFFERENT SOURCES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 FWIW...The NAM is coming in farther NW through 66hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 FWIW...The NAM is coming in farther NW through 66hrs. significantly so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 300mb jet max is further north on 0z NAM than the 12z run, sitting up in IL/IN, just something to note. also a tad strong 850mb low at 60hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 3 positive posts in a row...time for a negative one: 21z SREF mean is off the coast with the sfc low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 1006 low over c. GA at 75 light precip into s. 1/3rd IN and OH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 stronger at 66hrs. 1008mb low just west of Mobile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I think the others can be useful as well but this gets into knowing what their biases are. That's me though. I do agree with the rest of what you say though. The CMC is one I use on occasion--but the others are just impossible to use for a lot of purposes since they typically can't even get the synoptic evolution right--and they flip-flop around too much--so it makes tracking key features challenging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 3 positive posts in a row...time for a negative one: 21z SREF mean is off the coast with the sfc low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The NAM goes bombastic and breaks weenie hearts on the EC with a major rainstorm. I don't buy it--at least that ridiculous track. That will be hard to pull off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 at 81 1000mb low over W. carolinas light precip in to s. half of ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Heavy precip in WV at 84. Baby steps. Getting so close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 kinda surprised guru isn't here saying the nw trend has started for chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 lol, even with this "nw" shift the NAM would probably still be a coastal hugger beyond 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The NAM goes bombastic and breaks weenie hearts on the EC with a major rainstorm. I don't buy it--at least that ridiculous track. That will be hard to pull off. Considering how hard they trolled us ( before you arrived ) and wishing bad outcomes on us i doubt you will find many here with a broken heart over them getting rain especially considering the winter they had last winter. Personally i would like to see what the rest of the guidance does before jumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I think it would intensify alot quicker than it does, but maybe the block is forcing it further east because the northern low actually flies east before the southern low even gets going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 starting to look like november 1950 :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 starting to look like november 1950 :weenie: Your wife should padlock the liquor cabinet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 lol, even with this "nw" shift the NAM would probably still be a coastal hugger beyond 84. ALL depends on what that northern energy does that is dropping into the lakes at the end of the run. IF it were to dig just right it could capture the whole system and keep it further west. Or it could act as a kicker and send the whole thing further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Your wife should padlock the liquor cabinet. too late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Considering how hard they trolled us ( before you arrived ) and wishing bad outcomes on us i doubt you will find many here with a broken heart over them getting rain especially considering the winter they had last winter. Personally i would like to see what the rest of the guidance does before jumping. Yeah I was kidding. I don't know what it was like before--but weather happens both ways. They had some good hits too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 At the present this run looks like a Cumberland and Allegheny mountain special. Interesting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Shifts much further west and it might have my attention Really struggling with how to handle tomorrow's forecast around here. NAM just went poof with all the precip. Prob hold the course and hope for the best NAM says hello west Tennessee Image used with permission from www.wright-weather.com Are you in IL now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Shifts much further west and it might have my attention Really struggling with how to handle tomorrow's forecast around here. NAM just went poof with all the precip. Prob hold the course and hope for the best NAM says hello west Tennessee Image used with permission from www.wright-weather.com I was noticing that. Someone between Memphis and Nashville receives 12"+ easy on this run. I'll give up on weather entirely if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 well interesting to see the NAM cutoff the low again no idea how in the fook we are gonna bring it up here, but nice to see it dig and cut, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 ALL depends on what that northern energy does that is dropping into the lakes at the end of the run. IF it were to dig just right it could capture the whole system and keep it further west. Or it could act as a kicker and send the whole thing further east. If only the western/west coast ridge was further west. Oh the possibilities... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 i like Harry's "if only..." : That energy in the lakes coming in quicker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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