dilly84 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 i can still buy into the idea of cmh missing narrowly... ...but cincy??? are you kidding me? I can't believe there are no advisories or anything in sw ohio or nc ky. Just weird I cant believe the sim radars. If thats true, well Ill be up all night watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Dilly be careful with what you post, ugh. What those "futurecast" radars show is the movement of the radar precipitation based on the previous hours then it simply moves them in time forward using a simple algorithm. It doesnt take into account dynamical things like stretching deformation zones, etc. and that this band will begin stretching on said deformation zone soon. It isn't going to push into northern OH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I must be seeing things to, but this thing looks just like a typical system that thumps Southern Indiana and Central and Southern Ohio and radar looks like the precip is heading generally that direction. granted it looks that way at this moment....but as much as i would like to believe it, i just can't imagine the models failing that badly in the short range....especially EVERYone of them. That would be a historic model fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 here is a better shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Dilly be careful with what you post, ugh. What those "futurecast" radars show is the movement of the radar precipitation based on the previous hours then it simply moves them in time forward using a simple algorithm. It doesnt take into account dynamical things like stretching deformation zones, etc. and that this band will begin stretching on said deformation zone soon. It isn't going to push into northern OH! I just posted the Rapid Refresh (HRRR) which also shows a similar solution with the precipitation stretching pretty far North into Eastern Indiana and Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Some of the heavier 40-45 dbz returns are moving right towards wilmington. With a lot of moisture pumping in being it from the south with no indication of weakening, they should pick up at least a few inches. Unless its not reaching the ground there, this is gonna be a nice forecast bust for KILN and surrounding stations. At least they have some chance of precip in the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Some reflectivity returns start south of Bedford and Brownstown now, but its definitely moving this way. We have 0 chance of snow here south of Indy. Will be interesting to see if this holds together. For the last 1-2 days which model was showing west vs the euro, was it the gfs? Just virga so far here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Dilly be careful with what you post, ugh. What those "futurecast" radars show is the movement of the radar precipitation based on the previous hours then it simply moves them in time forward using a simple algorithm. It doesnt take into account dynamical things like stretching deformation zones, etc. and that this band will begin stretching on said deformation zone soon. It isn't going to push into northern Oh Fair enough, but the hrrr doesn't do that and it looks somewhat similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Heavy snow in Murray! Roads are finally getting covered. FWIW, I just spoke to my parents on the phone, they are located in Louisville and have had nothing yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 here is a better shot. Dilly, what's the time frame on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Fair enough, but the hrrr doesn't do that and it looks somewhat similar The HRRR is a radar reflectivity composite, not a qpf composite. All the models have high based moisture pushing into Ohio but QPF sticking along the southern and SE end of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Dilly be careful with what you post, ugh. What those "futurecast" radars show is the movement of the radar precipitation based on the previous hours then it simply moves them in time forward using a simple algorithm. It doesnt take into account dynamical things like stretching deformation zones, etc. and that this band will begin stretching on said deformation zone soon. It isn't going to push into northern OH! I dont think I need you to yell at me bud. There are many mets saying it is further north and west than what models are showing. And it isnt just futurecast radars showing it. It is also HRR and as weatherpimp said many futurecasts are based off a wrf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Dilly, what's the time frame on that? 5 or 6 hrs from now I believe. I can get hr one and we can compare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The HRRR is a radar reflectivity composite, not a qpf composite. All the models have high based moisture pushing into Ohio but QPF sticking along the southern and SE end of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I dont think I need you to yell at me bud. There are many mets saying it is further north and west than what models are showing. And it isnt just futurecast radars showing it. It is also HRR and as weatherpimp said many futurecasts are based off a wrf. LOL I am not yelling at you. I am saying one should use caution before making it seem like everyone is going to catch a huge dumping of precip. I am not trying to hose down your snow threat--I am trying to caution you in what the simulated reflectivity are really showing since I have experience in using those exact said products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 LOL I am not yelling at you. I am saying one should use caution before making it seem like everyone is going to catch a huge dumping of precip. I am not trying to hose down your snow threat--I am trying to caution you in what the simulated reflectivity are really showing since I have experience in using those exact said products. I clearly stated a page back "I am not getting my hopes up yet, but I am going to sit here and watch the radar for it to shift east, which it has yet to do." And I posted some futurecast radar maps. I never said "Hey everyone we are going to get dumped on" Just posting and keeping an eye on things and sharing what I am seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I clearly stated a page back "I am not getting my hopes up yet, but I am going to sit here and watch the radar for it to shift east, which it has yet to do." And I posted some futurecast radar maps. I never said "Hey everyone we are going to get dumped on" Just posting and keeping an eye on things and sharing what I am seeing. Ok, fair enough. I just read the postings from others and that may not be the case though--just saying. Southern OH is in the ballgame--but the plots of future-cast could be very misleading--and it seems some think this thing will be shifting into northern OH when high based reflectivities mean nothing. If you started seeing a bunch of obs turning to qpf in southern OH early--then that would be a red flag no doubt. HM and JB should be taken with a grain of salt though as there is nothing on-going that suggests this is panning out differently than projected except the northern wave may spread some light precip into southern OH earlier than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Went out and measured, we have about an inch of snow on the ground. Nice to see the ground covered again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Just looking at radar would it be plausible to say measurable snowfall from dayton to youngstown? Not saying tons but that could be the line where it snows up to an inch. I am trying to stay in reality, but that radar is pure eye candy right now! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Just looking at radar would it be plausible to say measurable snowfall from dayton to youngstown? Not saying tons but that could be the line where it snows up to an inch. I am trying to stay in reality, but that radar is pure eye candy right now! LOL idk. I think, myself, it is plausible. I am watching the radar loop and it has yet to shift east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 idk. I think, myself, it is plausible. I am watching the radar loop and it has yet to shift east. might be too much emphasis on west vs. east. What will determine a bust is how far north it can come. I know that sounds obvious, but that comma head may start elongating w to e and slow down it's n. progress. That's what i'm watching for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 granted it looks that way at this moment....but as much as i would like to believe it, i just can't imagine the models failing that badly in the short range....especially EVERYone of them. That would be a historic model fail Agreed, although anyone who was/is near the edge should be watching this closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Radar really showing precip shooting north from birmingham to louisville. Of course that change over line is racing east! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Radar really showing precip shooting north from birmingham to louisville. Of course that change over line is racing east! Thats what I find odd. obviously the cold air is pushing in, but it continues north. Guess it could just be due to nightfall too i suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 hammering in owensboro. I looked at this cam earlier and there was no snow lol watch the one with the parking lot lights.. http://www.owensboro.org/webcams it is hi speed you can see how hard it is coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 ILN did add a few more counties to their WAA, no drastic changes though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 From JB 7 minutes ago: 00z CRGEM at 39 north and 73 west..995 mb, stronger and further northwest than stretched out WRF feedback look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 PIT mentioning accumulating snows for my area now THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. SNOWFALL MAY BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY CAUSE UNTREATED PAVEMENTS TO BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET MIX IN WITH THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY, AND THIS CAN RESULT IN UNTREATED PAVEMENTS THAT ARE PARTICULARLY SLIPPERY BESIDES BEING SNOW COVERED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 the ull appears to be heading towards central PA instead of east, comments? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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