ukrocks Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Meh, most of western ky are only in .10 - .25 on the sref. Yeah, I have no doubt that we will get at least a WWA tomorrow. Was hoping for WSW criteria but oh well. I think I'm going to make a snow map of my area just for fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yeah, I have no doubt that we will get at least a WWA tomorrow. Was hoping for WSW criteria but oh well. I think I'm going to make a snow map of my area just for fun. Lol. Looking at radar is just sad. Storm is just gaining strength. Looks impressive!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Lol. Looking at radar is just sad. Storm is just gaining strength. Looks impressive!! New weather forum in the makings? I just clicked your link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Lol. Looking at radar is just sad. Storm is just gaining strength. Looks impressive!! Isn't it already further north than expected? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 New weather forum in the makings? I just clicked your link. Made it 13 days ago. Got bored. Considering making it something different. IDK yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 06Z GFS looks good for me. I'm in the .25-.50 range. The .50-.75 inches is just 10 miles to my south in Puryear. This is going to be a very close call. Would not shock to see some surprises. I'm going to go 2-4 inches of snow for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 06Z GFS looks good for me. I'm in the .25-.50 range. The .50-.75 inches is just 10 miles to my south in Puryear. This is going to be a very close call. Would not shock to see some surprises. I'm going to go 2-4 inches of snow for my area. Gl man. Don't look promising to the rest of us. Hope ya get a bunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 New weather forum in the makings? I just clicked your link. As if we need another. Oh well. Good luck Dilly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 As if we need another. Oh well. Good luck Dilly. Man, looking at the radar it is hard to believe we are not going to even see a flurry with this storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Man, looking at the radar it is hard to believe we are not going to even see a flurry with this storm! I don't know what's worse, the fact that we aren't going to get it or the fact that it looks like the ec is going to get hammered now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I don't know what's worse, the fact that we aren't going to get it or the fact that it looks like the ec is going to get hammered now. For me it is mostly that the ec is going to get hammered b/c ever since I moved to OH from there, they have been getting slammed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 As if we need another. Oh well. Good luck Dilly. As I said above, its probably going to be turned into something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 For me it is mostly that the ec is going to get hammered b/c ever since I moved to OH from there, they have been getting slammed! Oh well. What can ya do lol.. wait til you see the radar later heading north and ya see it reach the southern tip of OH and then decide to move east lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 They are going to hammered? Meh, if that is a "hammering" I would pass. huge bust potential for DC area. they will start as rain then go over to a relatively narrow (6 hour) period of 'something' very heavy. Even if it's all snow i'd be surprised if they see over 6 inches of cement, kinda like a late march event These UL dumps can sometimes be either surprising or disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 huge bust potential for DC area. they will start as rain then go over to a relatively narrow (6 hour) period of 'something' very heavy. Even if it's all snow i'd be surprised if they see over 6 inches of cement, kinda like a late march event These UL dumps can sometimes be either surprising or disappointing. For there a bit will depend on wind direction. Any wind off the water ( Ocean )has much better odds of killing it. I remember this song and dance all to well with the close ones. As you say though it can surprise very well ( See Vets day 87/Feb 06 ) or be total crap. The further away from the Ocean you are the better unless the winds go nne/north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 They are going to hammered? Meh, if that is a "hammering" I would pass. Well according to weather channels and the nws 6-10" and it could be well underdone. Considering how rare a 6" storm is for us, yea Id call 10" or more getting hammered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well according to weather channels and the nws 6-10" and it could be well underdone. Considering how rare a 6" storm is for us, yea Id call 10" or more getting hammered no doubt if eveything goes right its a hammering for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 For there a bit will depend on wind direction. Any wind off the water ( Ocean )has much better odds of killing it. I remember this song and dance all to well with the close ones. As you say though it can surprise very well ( See Vets day 87/Feb 06 ) or be total crap. The further away from the Ocean you are the better unless the winds go nne/north. i remember checking out traffic cams in DC the morning after the FEB 06 storms and couldn't believe all the roads were just wet after like 14" of snow overnight. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 hr 6 of the 12z gfs looks further south than it does on radar right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 1009 is the current low pressure in southern LA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Rain has started to fall here. Mets here are all over the place. I have heard as much as 3-6 inches for and as little as less than an inch. NWS is calling for less than an inch but we are under a WWA. Man oh man, if we get dumped on tonight, this place is going to be shut down for a while. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Rain has started to fall here. Mets here are all over the place. I have heard as much as 3-6 inches for and as little as less than an inch. NWS is calling for less than an inch but we are under a WWA. Man oh man, if we get dumped on tonight, this place is going to be shut down for a while. LOL. Yea and the models are off a bit. they have the precip still well south of you at this time frame. The nam shows precip reaching you at hr12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yea and the models are off a bit. they have the precip still well south of you at this time frame. The nam shows precip reaching you at hr12. Yeah, the models are definitely a little bit off. Temperatures are already starting to fall. Was 38, now it's 37. It's 34 degrees off to my west. Snowfall accumulations will be better too because this will be a nighttime event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoeWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yeah, the models are definitely a little bit off. Temperatures are already starting to fall. Was 38, now it's 37. It's 34 degrees off to my west. Snowfall accumulations will be better too because this will be a nighttime event. Yes, the Upper Level Low is definitely further north than previously thought. The models all indicate a relax in suppression after 3:00 PM CST... We'll see what that does , but if the Deformation band sets up correctly - as the temps fall aftersun set there will be plenty of surprised people across Western Kentucky tomorrow Congratulation its been on the dry side a while bout time you all saw a solid storm ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yes, the Upper Level Low is definitely further north than previously thought. The models all indicate a relax in suppression after 3:00 PM CST... We'll see what that does , but if the Deformation band sets up correctly - as the temps fall aftersun set there will be plenty of surprised people across Western Kentucky tomorrow Congratulation its been on the dry side a while bout time you all saw a solid storm ! Im interested in seeing how far north it goes before making the move east. Im watching towards eastern OH here, just to see if we can somehow squeeze and inch out. Seems like the low is stronger than thought too at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yes, the Upper Level Low is definitely further north than previously thought. The models all indicate a relax in suppression after 3:00 PM CST... We'll see what that does , but if the Deformation band sets up correctly - as the temps fall aftersun set there will be plenty of surprised people across Western Kentucky tomorrow Congratulation its been on the dry side a while bout time you all saw a solid storm ! I know the ruc doesn't get a lot of respect, but it does show what you are referring to. ULL is much further north and the western primary holds on much longer. Being in central OH i'm pretty much out of the game regardless, however if i lived in s. OH/s.IN and KY i'd be very very interested in nowcasting this. Gonna be some surprises down there i have a feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoeWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I know the ruc doesn't get a lot of respect, but it does show what you are referring to. ULL is much further north and the western primary holds on much longer. Being in central OH i'm pretty much out of the game regardless, however if i lived in s. OH/s.IN and KY i'd be very very interested in nowcasting this. Gonna be some surprises down there i have a feeling. The more important question! How did you get a four panel like that ? Or did you just edit it that way? Also, I normally respect the RUC, but lately not sure what its problem has been. Its been out in left field more often than not this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The more important question! How did you get a four panel like that ? Or did you just edit it that way? ncep site ruc link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The more important question! How did you get a four panel like that ? Or did you just edit it that way? http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/ Ruc under 4 panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 nam looks like se.OH gets a decent hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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