snowstormcanuck Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 18z NAM well east of its 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 18z NAM well east of its 12z run. oh well we just can't seem to get the" big one" this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The problem is, there is no monster storm on the east coast by the upper air patterns. It looks almost fictional. We will see if the storm "dies" eventually. We agree. I'm not understanding how this isn't coming north, even with everything baro said. I still don't get how a tiny piece of energy is pushing the big storm east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 18z NAM well east of its 12z run. look at all the crap going on at 5h. The chances that the nam 5h map at 84 will verify like that are pretty slim. Sitting about 200 miles too far nw of the that mess at 84 hrs on the nam means i will continue to hold steady with my white flag in my pocket and the fat lady detained... til at least tomorrow 12z thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 oh well we just can't seem to get the" big one" this winter Nope. Assuming this narrative continues, I can't think of a winter off the top of my head that was similar. 1999-00 was a Nina winter in which we had trouble getting big snows, but that was a less snowy winter overall and much warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Look at the ECMWF at 240hrs!!!!!! If the ECMWF follows the GFS, it may take the "King" awhile to regain the crown. Yeah but look at the eastcoast crap. That NEEDS to go so the ridging in the Atlantic is poking into the eastcoast. That way whatever comes down out west is allowed to dig and come out via El Paso Texas and gets forced north this side of the apps as it runs into the ridge poking into the east. That is alot better though ASSUMING that Pac Ridge holds and the stuff dropping along the west coast and continue dropping towards the sw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 look at all the crap going on at 5h. The chances that the nam 5h map at 84 will verify like that are pretty slim. Sitting about 200 miles too far nw of the that mess at 84 hrs on the nam means i will continue to hold steady with my white flag in my pocket and the fat lady detained... til at least tomorrow 12z thank you Note how it looked at 48hrs. So darn close. Gotta hope and pray the models are wrong with the kicker in Canada. That IS still in the Pacific so still a chance it could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 look at all the crap going on at 5h. The chances that the nam 5h map at 84 will verify like that are pretty slim. Sitting about 200 miles too far nw of the that mess at 84 hrs on the nam means i will continue to hold steady with my white flag in my pocket and the fat lady detained... til at least tomorrow 12z thank you GL Buckeye. I gotta jump ship at this point. Still hoping for several inches with the northern wave though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Nope. Assuming this narrative continues, I can't think of a winter off the top of my head that was similar. 1999-00 was a Nina winter in which we had trouble getting big snows, but that was a less snowy winter overall and much warmer. This winter is fairly similar to last winter in some aspects...main difference is that this year is with a robust La Nina backdrop so there are naturally some Nina characteristics that have been exerting themselves on a broader scale. A 99-00 type Nina it is not, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 VERY DRY air here in lincoln, we just had light green on radar go over head and only had a few flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 No change here, either up the coastal plain/east slope of the apps or no storm whatsoever. For that type of phase the inversion would force it west, which drives me nuts about the ECMWF. It for the life of it, can't organize its upper levels. Heck, even the UKMET and GGEM sorta understand it. Yet, it still tries a rediculous phase, even when it is flirting with OTS. Uhhhh.... As for the NAM, we are in the "dig and bury" stage of its runs lol. that's not exactly going out on limb . Besides, i'm pretty sure you said earlier in the thread, maybe yesterday, it either outright phases and goes WEST of the apps or its OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I changed last night........... lol....c'mon man....if i can hold on for another 24 hrs you should too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I changed last night........... btw how's that Jan'78 thing working out?..better keep that alive, that's the next barge i'm jump'n on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 that's not exactly going out on limb . Besides, i'm pretty sure you said earlier in the thread, maybe yesterday, it either outright phases and goes WEST of the apps or its OTS meh.. Wont be i95 now. Took care of that via facebook. Every time i have made a post there about a big eastcoast storm to people back east that i know it has failed. Now to figure out how to get things to shift west vs out to sea.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The International falls customs near the canadian U.S. border need to do a random security check on the northern low dropping south. Hopefully they find something suspicious ( it's too weak?) and keep it in custody for a few days. Or maybe a mounty can pull it over for traveling too fast and take 4-5 hours to write a ticket. I know its bad humor and I should just delete this but I made an effort and I will roll with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The International falls customs near the canadian U.S. border need to do a random security check on the northern low dropping south. Hopefully they find something suspicious ( it's too weak?) and keep it in custody for a few days. Or maybe a mounty can pull it over for traveling too fast and take 4-5 hours to write a ticket. I know its bad humor and I should just delete this but I made an effort and I will roll with it. i enjoyed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 i enjoyed it Thanks. Clipper goes from a 996 low to 1012 in 24 hours. I would assume the vortex and energy from the ec low is doing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Looks like 18z GFS is still OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Looks like 18z GFS is still OTS BOO to the 18Z NAM and GFS...Oh well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Question Does anywhere know where these images are coming from? URL - this is the Canadian Allan (RaleighWX) http://raleighwx.americanwx.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 BOO to the 18Z NAM and GFS...Oh well.... Look on the bright side...are snowpack is not going anywhere any time soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 New blog post for those interested. It is short and sweet--but it may give insight into the "model issues" for anyone interested. http://jasonahsenmac...rodynamic-flow/ And no--models don't suck. In fact--quite the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 New blog post for those interested. It is short and sweet--but it may give insight into the "model issues" for anyone interested. http://jasonahsenmac...rodynamic-flow/ And no--models don't suck. In fact--quite the opposite. It isn't so much models suck this year, moreso that its taking so long to get good consensus between them. When you have so many models showing different things, it leads one to believe that they suck, even though they don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 New blog post for those interested. It is short and sweet--but it may give insight into the "model issues" for anyone interested. http://jasonahsenmac...rodynamic-flow/ And no--models don't suck. In fact--quite the opposite. I think you shouldn't take things too serious when such comments are made about the models. I hope all knows that despite the changes we often see in modeling that overall they are great tools. I as well think that sometimes people get caught up in the moment and thus reasoning goes out the door. Thus why you see that happen with the models suck comments etc even from the Pro's. Great discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerbs Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 It isn't so much models suck this year, moreso that its taking so long to get good consensus between them. When you have so many models showing different things, it leads one to believe that they suck, even though they don't. Maybe we are expecting too much out of the Med-Long models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 It isn't so much models suck this year, moreso that its taking so long to get good consensus between them. When you have so many models showing different things, it leads one to believe that they suck, even though they don't. I think this is a good point. It almost feels like there's too much info out there. Fact is that a lot of progress had been made but it will be slowing down if it hasn't already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Maybe we are expecting too much out of the Med-Long models? Meh, 72 hours really isn't med. or long range, and we haven't been seeing good consensus even then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I think this is a good point. It almost feels like there's too much info out there. Fact is that a lot of progress had been made but it will be slowing down if it hasn't already. :weenie: speaking of too much info.....and in accordance with my reputation to uphold the true weenie spirit, here is my first weenie post of the evening :weenie: exhibit a: 18zukie at 60 hrs vs. 12zukie at 66 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I think this is a good point. It almost feels like there's too much info out there. Fact is that a lot of progress had been made but it will be slowing down if it hasn't already. Even if you only take the big three. Euro Gfs and Gem. Look at their solutions today. I can see why someone who doesn't know a lot about models would say, "jeeze these things suck, how can you make a forecast when one shows an apps runner and the others show coastals, but both get there differently." It all comes down to which one is right. And unless you have weather ballons and everything else feeding specific data to you, you really don't know which will be correct, you just have to make sense of everything and figure out which has the most realistic scenario based on upper air data you have access to. Idk that is my take.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Even if you only take the big three. Euro Gfs and Gem. Look at their solutions today. I can see why someone who doesn't know a lot about models would say, "jeeze these things suck, how can you make a forecast when one shows an apps runner and the others show coastals, but both get there differently." It all comes down to which one is right. And unless you have weather ballons and everything else feeding specific data to you, you really don't know which will be correct, you just have to make sense of everything and figure out which has the most realistic scenario based on upper air data you have access to. Idk that is my take.. See Baro's point about the ensembles. They are a great tool as well. I think part of the issue as well is people look at just the L and ignore other key parts of the model. This is kinda a dirty quick explanation but should work. Example. One of the key things i look for with a threat here is this below. Note what i circled. That is a terrible spot to have that. It is a blocker. Now this shows ( note the red line from Pacific to the eastern part of country i added. And where i would prefer to see the block located. And a nice H in THAT spot and not up north. As IS ( Without my handy work and thus what the model did show ) i would go with a system headed for the east coast at the very least because that block i mention will prevent the system from making a hard turn to the north this side/along the apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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