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January 24th-26th potential winter storm part 2


Hoosier

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JB: I like track inside hatteras, right to near acy and then northeast. Heavy backlash should make this DC to BWI heaviest snow.. after rain.

Anyone care to spell that out for me in regards to where he thinks the track will go. ACy? BWII?

typical jb...that track is pretty far east. ACY is atlantic city...i think bwi is baltimore. this from the man who said the best snows would be north of the ohio river and mason dixon line earlier. Then said this is not a snowstorm for DC. Funny how he tries to sneak around that now. He's caving to the eastern looking models. He's discounting the gfs as too far east and says the gem is too far west. Yet he has been harping on the nao heading positive and the trough so far west as a reason this goes west....then he lays out such a far east track :rolleyes:

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you have to understand the mindset of the MA/NE crowd and its mets like JB. Saying a storm goes way west means it rides up i-95. Remember these guys think pittsburgh is the westcoast

LOL yea I know. I honestly dont see this as a widespread snow event. Alot of moisture heading north and sure some places may get 15-20 inches but it will be localized in the mountains and maybe into central NY. Hartford and western Mass has already seen 56 inches (probably 30 snow depth) and if they get another 20 inches man I would be very jealous. I hate to be so negative towards the NE folks but a part of me hopes it's all rain.

Thanks for the help with the bastardi jargon

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You actual care about SREF?

Usually if there was going to be a major shift you'd at a minimum see a small budge in the SREFS. Albeit I didn't compare it to the 15z run, the mean track is still well off the coast north of 35N. I can't imagine the global guidance is going to be radically further west, but time may prove me wrong.

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Yeah, I'm not fan of persisent cold, although this current brand of bitter cold is fairly acute. Snow every day and 25 is fine by me.

Snow when its 30 is fine with me. I dont know much about ENSO's and I dont want to venture too far OT but aren't el ninos supposed to be colder than La ninas? Whats the reason behind the block holding steady this year? Lack of significant storms in the middle of the country and moving up into canada to move the block would be my guess.

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Snow when its 30 is fine with me. I dont know much about ENSO's and I dont want to venture too far OT but aren't el ninos supposed to be colder than La ninas? Whats the reason behind the block holding steady this year? Lack of significant storms in the middle of the country and moving up into canada to move the block would be my guess.

Negative, it is usually actually the opposite...

post-1662-0-28134400-1295835808.png

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Negative, it is usually actually the opposite...

post-1662-0-28134400-1295835808.png

I would say La Nina Season's have much more variability then this generalization map puts out. I think much of it comes down to the PDO state.

I would also say, the El Nino map should have to 2 main computations, pretty much a blowtorch across the country, and of course the -NAO state with coinciding +PNA Eastern trof.

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