passmaster16 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 lol at the MA'ers...they keep going from rain to whiff. at least all we have to worry about is wiff lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The 12z suites had major struggles organizing heights properly. Everything comes in to far east from where it should if you allign it to the northern stream, which makes the northern stream act as a "kicker" which it isn't. This happens time and time again with these models. It happened last February 5-6 also. Remember the Globals/NAM in the 72-96hr timeframe..........I don't want to lol. well this has big implications we will see if you are right Angry hopefully u are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The 12z suites had major struggles organizing heights properly. Everything comes in to far east from where it should if you allign it to the northern stream, which makes the northern stream act as a "kicker" which it isn't. This happens time and time again with these models. It happened last February 5-6 also. Remember the Globals/NAM in the 72-96hr timeframe..........I don't want to lol. this is the 18z nam and 12z gfs same timeframe. If that 5h is correct with that energy out west...chances are a progressive solution like the nam is very realistic just keep'n it real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 do the 6z and 18z ncep models ingest new data or do they work off the previous samples? They will pull in new data (from satellites, etc as well as any special soundings), but are initialized from the previous model runs. The common misconception is that 00z/12z runs initialize with new data. In fact they are also initialized from the previous runs, but the have the benefit of the upper air network which is used to nudge the initialized fields towards reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 They will pull in new data (from satellites, etc as well as any special soundings), but are initialized from the previous model runs. The common misconception is that 00z/12z runs initialize with new data. In fact they are also initialized from the previous runs, but the have the benefit of the upper air network which is used to nudge the initialized fields towards reality. thank you for the clairification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 They will pull in new data (from satellites, etc as well as any special soundings), but are initialized from the previous model runs. The common misconception is that 00z/12z runs initialize with new data. In fact they are also initialized from the previous runs, but the have the benefit of the upper air network which is used to nudge the initialized fields towards reality. thank you for the clairification dtk hangs out in the eastern threads--but he works out at NCEP on the GFS. He also had this info on the NAM for anyone interested: "I don't have much to add as I'm not even sure I fully understand why the NAM had (still has?) a drift in the large scale (though there are various hypotheses related to the model itself, various DA aspects including bias correction of satellite data, etc.). The NAM domain nowadays is actually quite large (see below)...so lateral boundary conditions shouldn't be an issue for most of the CONUS part of the domain for most of the integration. I think that we've seen pretty big improvement since going to partial cycling instead of allowing the NAM to cycle on itself. I'm not in the meso-group, so I may not have this exactly right (I don't know exactly what what states they use and how far they go back for partial cycling...but basically before each analysis, the NAM is started from a previous GFS state (from 12 hrs ago all fields, not just the boundaries). Then, a series of analyses and forecasts of the NAM are run leading up to the actual initialization time, at which point the full 84 hour forecast is run (the lateral boundary conditions for this are updated using the previous GFS fcst, from 6 hours ago). I think the cycling is 3 hourly leading up to initialization time (in other words, it starts from a GFS forecast, assimilates obs, runs a short NAM forecast, assimilates more obs, runs another short NAM forecast, etc.). This allows the NAM to start from a large scale that is like the GFS, but try to resolve scales / features at its own resolution and consistent with its own dynamics. This essentially cuts off any possible "drift" in the large scale, at least relative to the GFS, since it's forced to do a complete restart from a global state very so often." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 dtk hangs out in the eastern threads--but he works out at NCEP on the GFS. He also had this info on the NAM for anyone interested: "I don't have much to add as I'm not even sure I fully understand why the NAM had (still has?) a drift in the large scale (though there are various hypotheses related to the model itself, various DA aspects including bias correction of satellite data, etc.). The NAM domain nowadays is actually quite large (see below)...so lateral boundary conditions shouldn't be an issue for most of the CONUS part of the domain for most of the integration. I think that we've seen pretty big improvement since going to partial cycling instead of allowing the NAM to cycle on itself. I'm not in the meso-group, so I may not have this exactly right (I don't know exactly what what states they use and how far they go back for partial cycling...but basically before each analysis, the NAM is started from a previous GFS state (from 12 hrs ago all fields, not just the boundaries). Then, a series of analyses and forecasts of the NAM are run leading up to the actual initialization time, at which point the full 84 hour forecast is run (the lateral boundary conditions for this are updated using the previous GFS fcst, from 6 hours ago). I think the cycling is 3 hourly leading up to initialization time (in other words, it starts from a GFS forecast, assimilates obs, runs a short NAM forecast, assimilates more obs, runs another short NAM forecast, etc.). This allows the NAM to start from a large scale that is like the GFS, but try to resolve scales / features at its own resolution and consistent with its own dynamics. This essentially cuts off any possible "drift" in the large scale, at least relative to the GFS, since it's forced to do a complete restart from a global state very so often." Much more detailed and informative than I could have provided. But backs up my point that all runs start from a forecast and assimilate data to nudge the forecast towards reality, it's just that the 00z/12z runs have more data to assimilate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The 18Z GFS/NAM are having issues with this wave and the backside jet streak.. The difference between the 2 regarding the 500 hpa height/vorticity fields are pretty substantial considering it is the analysis field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 lol @ 18z GFS, another OTS special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 lol @ 18z GFS, another OTS special Just horrible handling by the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 lol @ 18z GFS, another OTS special Quite a ways ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 that piece of energy coming in from the central rockies seems to be the culprit. Screws up the ridging on the backside of the trough and kicks out the trough. That keeps modelling stronger...not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 that piece of energy coming in from the central rockies seems to be the culprit. Screws up the ridging on the backside of the trough and kicks out the trough. That keeps modelling stronger...not good You seen the 18z uk at 72 yet? Low at 72hr is over the norther ga, eastern tenn, and the western carlinas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 You seen the 18z uk at 72 yet? Low at 72hr is over the norther ga, eastern tenn, and the western carlinas... yup lol....and considering it utilizes the 12z run in it's parameters means it may be substantially nw at 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 yup lol....and considering it utilizes the 12z run in it's parameters means it may be substantially nw at 00z I just can't believe the spread between the Americans and euros...one camp is going to look horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 You seen the 18z uk at 72 yet? Low at 72hr is over the norther ga, eastern tenn, and the western carlinas... actually i didn't know it went to 72 at 18z...so correction, i have not seen that. I posted the 60hr edit...actually it's not that far off the 12z... i think our minds are playing tricks on us after seeing the gfs and nam get shoved out to sea lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 You seen the 18z uk at 72 yet? Low at 72hr is over the norther ga, eastern tenn, and the western carlinas... If its like other models ill go due east after it reaches that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 where you guys get the ukie images from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 actually i didn't know it went to 72 at 18z...so correction, i have not seen that. I posted the 60hr Can view it here..Basically make your own. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/make.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 actually i didn't know it went to 72 at 18z...so correction, i have not seen that. I posted the 60hr edit...actually it's not that far off the 12z... i think our minds are playing tricks on us after seeing the gfs and nam get shoved out to sea lol Regardless...huge differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Last time i recall seeing this ( UK/GGEM ) on the nw/stronger side of modeling we had the ole NW trend in full swing. Back then THIS is what you looked for when a NW trend was gonna commence. Will be interesting to see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Can view it here..Basically make your own. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/make.html thanks Harry, hard to tell what it would do beyond that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 we need that 5h to capture the low to keep it from escaping but it can't do that because the piece behind isn't allowing it to go neg tilt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 we need that 5h to capture the low to keep it from escaping but it can't do that because the piece behind isn't allowing it to go neg tilt As said a day or two ago need that system dropping out of Canada to drop in further west and deeper. That however could screw you as well as the storm would probably bomb over Ohio heading due north. Really a tight squeeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 As said a day or two ago need that system dropping out of Canada to drop in further west and deeper. That however could screw you as well as the storm would probably bomb over Ohio heading due north. Really a tight squeeze. you think we start seeing a nw shift? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 you think we start seeing a nw shift? Ask me that after the 00z runs are out. It would not surprise me though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 My question is why do the American models appear to be handling this differently than the others? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 JB: I like track inside hatteras, right to near acy and then northeast. Heavy backlash should make this DC to BWI heaviest snow.. after rain. Anyone care to spell that out for me in regards to where he thinks the track will go. ACy? BWII? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 JB: I like track inside hatteras, right to near acy and then northeast. Heavy backlash should make this DC to BWI heaviest snow.. after rain. Anyone care to spell that out for me in regards to where he thinks the track will go. ACy? BWII? Didnt he say it was going end up way west yesterday? acy...atlantic city bwii...balt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 JB: I like track inside hatteras, right to near acy and then northeast. Heavy backlash should make this DC to BWI heaviest snow.. after rain. Anyone care to spell that out for me in regards to where he thinks the track will go. ACy? BWII? According to his blog on accuwx pro he hasn't updated since this morning. He updated before 12z and hasn't updated since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.