buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 lol, it's amazing how the UKIE over the last 4 runs has consistently looked great at 72 and consistently ends up fizzling. Strengthens my belief that the GGEM is out to lunch. yep, the ukie actually looks as though it would be dangerously west for us then all of a sudden goes east. That's the whole difference in the modelling right there. I read in another thread that the longer it takes for this to develop the more likely it goes north as it has more time to allow the n. stream to become involved. if it's just a matter of how north this potentially can come before it goes more east..... then to me that doesn't seem like such a far fetched thing to hope for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 it looks like the ggem til about 84 then sh/\ts the bed and runs east blah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 yep, the ukie actually looks as though it would be dangerously west for us then all of a sudden goes east. That's the whole difference in the modelling right there. I read in another thread that the longer it takes for this to develop the more likely it goes north as it has more time to allow the n. stream to become involved. if it's just a matter of how north this potentially can come before it goes more east..... then to me that doesn't seem like such a far fetched thing to hope for. looking at the models, i would agree with this part....the faster solutions over the past several days all seem to head off the coast, with not enough time for height building along the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 i honestly wish all the models would just get it over and come to a concensus on a miss or a hit. Always seems there's a tease hanging out there keeping me from wanting to let it go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 When does the 12z Euro come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 When does the 12z Euro come out? starts or started very soon. should know in about 20 mins what a does with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 starts or started very soon. should know in about 20 mins what a does with this storm with the GEM west, you cant possibly throw in the flag , can you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 with the GEM west, you cant possibly throw in the flag , can you? lol actually it's not so much the ''west' part that i care about, it's the north part. Plenty of models start this thing pretty far west....it's just that most of them shunt it east at the TN valley. JMA....probably would also make a right, but havent seen 84 yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 What will the euro do? I say east!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 from nyc board 42 - 1012 low norther gulf south of Lake Charles, LA, trough digging less than 00z Precip streaming NE to Kentucky at 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 What will the euro do? I say east!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Euro -closed sub 1012 low has formed south of Louisiana at 42 hrs. Precip streaming north into KY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 hr 54 northern branch involvement is way less, trough is still pos as it nears miss river 1008 low mouth miss river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The SLP track on the 12z ECMWF is about the same as the 0z, but the precip shield extends further west into OH/KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 hr 60 1004 lo south central ga. closed 500 a tick neg central northern miss ala border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The SLP track on the 12z ECMWF is about the same as the 0z, but the precip shield extends further west into OH/KY. Looks like the 0.10" line runs through CMH and 0.25" in far SE. Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 So is the track the same and just the precip shield is further west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Eh .01 for cmh from the storm. Towel is thrown. Its just not gonna come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Looks like the 0.10" line runs through CMH and 0.25" in far SE. Ohio. slp track seemed a bit west of 00z....nothing big though hell, i'm keeping the fat lady in the cab waiting outside....not ready to turn on the mic and have her come in yet. Damn canadians and japs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 .29 for pit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 .29 for pit LOL, bigs snows for us out here in PIT, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 LOL, bigs snows for us out here in PIT, At this point Id take my 3" and be happy. Us in central OH are left hopin the ggem is right, and even it isn't the great of a hit. 2-4" id guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 diff between h5 ggem and euro at 72 in a nutshell, the euro isn't as deep with the 5h energy But at 72 hours out i'm not willing to bring bertha to the mic over that yet, especially since trends have been for a deepening vs. weakening this season. She gets a stay still 00z now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 diff between h5 ggem and euro at 72 in a nutshell, the euro isn't as deep with the 5h energy But at 72 hours out i'm not willing to bring bertha to the mic over that yet. She gets a stay still 00z now lol buckeye, I always like your optimism, but are we not running out of time? Aren't we getting to a point where the main players are on the field and the data sampling should be better? I'm just not sure how many more shifts we can expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 buckeye, I always like your optimism, but are we not running out of time? Aren't we getting to a point where the main players are on the field and the data sampling should be better? I'm just not sure how many more shifts we can expect. of course we are running out of time.... models are in pretty good agreement around the 48-60 hr frame with a slp developing along the gulf coast...after that 72 plus is where there's some disagreement and that's why i'm willing to keep hope alive for another 12 hours or so. Why not right? It's not like there's anything else to track on it's heels. see you guys for the 18z lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 At this point Id take my 3" and be happy. Us in central OH are left hopin the ggem is right, and even it isn't the great of a hit. 2-4" id guess. Well....the .75 qpf line is maybe 75 miles south east of Pitt, so there is some hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Well....the .75 qpf line is maybe 75 miles south east of Pitt, so there is some hope. That'd mean I need a 200 mile shift west lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 buckeye, I always like your optimism, but are we not running out of time? Aren't we getting to a point where the main players are on the field and the data sampling should be better? I'm just not sure how many more shifts we can expect. the northern kicker piece of energy wont be onshore until 6z tomorrow morning time is short, but things can change still at this range and why are fat ladies always called Bertha?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 buckeye, I always like your optimism, but are we not running out of time? Aren't we getting to a point where the main players are on the field and the data sampling should be better? I'm just not sure how many more shifts we can expect. also, if i lived in IL then yes...it's probably over. But right now i'm about 75 miles nw of that comma head at 84 hours. Hard to close the books on it just yet. As far as your question about sampling data etc....that's a met question. I thought i read in another thread a couple days ago that it wouldn't all be on shore fully sampled until mon 00z or something....but again i don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 of course we are running out of time.... models are in pretty good agreement around the 48-60 hr frame with a slp developing along the gulf coast...after that 72 plus is where there's some disagreement and that's why i'm willing to keep hope alive for another 12 hours or so. Why not right? It's not like there's anything else to track on it's heels. see you guys for the 18z lol Remember when you called nation wide torch after the last system down there. Keep hope alive! Its been a great super thread/s even if it fails.. I Imagine a lot of learning was down by many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.