Paweatherguy1 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 None of the models have made *HUGE* shifts yet. In fact they've been handling the general evolution of this storm very well (ride the gulf coast and cut NE and track somewhere east of the Appalachians). You got to be kidding me. The euro two days ago was a classic apps runner...now it's ots.The nam at 00z had an apps runner..6z was ots. The ggem had an apps runner at 12z yesterday...00z was ots...same with the ukie. The gfs until yesterday had a completely different solution than any other model. IMO, they have been god awful.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 0z 12z Same time frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 the nam came back to a 00z - 6z compromise. 2 steps forward, 1 step back ain't gonna cut it at this timeframe. seems like the devil is in the details with this one so probably more shifting. If the east trend holds for all models at 12z i might have to send the cab over to pick up the fat lady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Paweatherguy, FWIW, although many here have seldomly said it, the GGEM is kind of a far NW outlier. Not to mention the GGEM also has a bias of being too far NW/amplified with a storm. The general consensus with all the models has been a track along the gulf coast (or through the gulf coast states) then having the storm head NE from there between the east coast and OTS. Even the EURO has been on board with it, other than the one or two runs showing a Apps runner (which has a low probability of happening anyway). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 the nam came back to a 00z - 6z compromise. 2 steps forward, 1 step back ain't gonna cut it at this timeframe. seems like the devil is in the details with this one so probably more shifting. If the east trend holds for all models at 12z i might have to send the cab over to pick up the fat lady. What a terrible waste of potential once again. However the 00z euro has something cooking towards the mid/late part of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Paweatherguy, FWIW, although many here have seldomly said it, the GGEM is kind of a far NW outlier. Not to meniton the GGEM also has a bias of being too far NW/amplified with a storm. The general consensus with all the models has been a track along the gulf coast (or through the gulf coast states) then having the storm head NE from there between the east coast and OTS. Again, disagree...nam, uk, ggem, and nogaps were all inland as of yesterday...euro was two days ago. I'm sorry, they've been terrible IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Again, disagree...nam, uk, ggem, and nogaps were all inland as of yesterday...euro was two days ago. I'm sorry, they've been terrible IMO. Ok, believe what you want, I'm done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 rgem stronger more north....probably means canadian will be as well. plot thickens, off to church and lunch with the fam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 rgem stronger more north....probably means canadian will be as well. plot thickens, off to church and lunch with the fam Lol...more flip flops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Well the bus is burning up.. Not looking good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 There it goes east.... Buckeye the cab should be called by 130 if the Doctor says east.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Maybe we should just move on to the next storm. lol, for some reason I feel like we've been discussing this storm for a month now, and are expecting this magical west shift. In the end it will go east lol, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Maybe we should just move on to the next storm. lol, for some reason I feel like we've been discussing this storm for a month now, and are expecting this magical west shift. In the end it will go east lol, i am pretty much reaching that conclusion. I am checking the model to see if there is anything in the next 7 days that we can discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Well the bus is burning up.. Not looking good... The bus never had a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Well the bus is burning up.. Not looking good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 That bus has been burnt to a crisp and speaking of other storms there is NADA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 That bus has been burnt to a crisp and speaking of other storms there is NADA... There is one, but at least from what the eye can see (low track across the MN/canadian border and riding ahead of it) it doesn't look good (see Hoosier's thread). Some people are starting to grow cautiously optimistic about it, but I'm not holding my breath for that one this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 lol, Buckeye must have prayed extra hard in church this morning. GGEM way west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 lol, Buckeye must have prayed extra hard in church this morning. GGEM way west. buckeye!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 UKMET also looks interesting. Has kind of dual low structure. One is over SC but another is in NE TN near the KY border. H5 low is closed off and slightly neg tilted over northern AL. At a minimum it would probably be west of the NCEP models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Comapring the UL positions of the UKIE and GGEM at 72, the UKIE is actually further west than the GGEM with the positioning. It might just be slower however. ' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 SSC (or anyone...) can you tell what is causing the GEM to be further west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Omg lol now if the Euro follows suit then I may pull out the fire entingisher to stop the burning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 SSC (or anyone...) can you tell what is causing the GEM to be further west? The main difference I'm seeing between the GEM and the NCEP models is that the NCEP models keep and open wave at H5, and they dig it much further south (grazing the GC, rather than in northern GA/AL like the GGEM. Plus the GGEM has a more negative tilt to the trough, which would help pull the sfc low morth northerly, than easterly. That being said, the 0z EURO had a similar H5 look to the southern wave, yet ended up much further east. It's probably some sort of overamplification error with the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The main difference I'm seeing between the GEM and the NCEP models is that the NCEP models keep and open wave at H5, and they dig it much further south (grazing the GC, rather than in northern GA/AL like the GGEM. Plus the GGEM has a more negative tilt to the trough, which would help pull the sfc low morth northerly, than easterly. That being said, the 0z EURO had a similar H5 look to the southern wave, yet ended up much further east. It's probably some sort of overamplification error with the GGEM. ok cool, makes sense as ive noted the trend of digging it further south is yielding crappy results since there isnt much to bring it back up north in that configuration. thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 When anybody has news on the Ukie beyond 72, please share it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 buckeye!!! yea i just saw that....color me skeptical. Ukie also starts off further north and west but finds a way to run east to the VA coast so it would probably still be a miss east. Nogaps came a bit west but still does the run to the east as well like the ukie. so right now the ggem stands alone which is not the only guy you want in your camp. The discrepencies at 500 seem so minor but i think the ggem might be involving a little more of the northern stream even though it cuts off the 500. That involvement is probably what is bringing it north vs. running east like the others. Because of that, I could potentially see a shift to the ggem if that trend with the northern stream were to continue. If Dr. NO tries to do it then i'll really get interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 When anybody has news on the Ukie beyond 72, please share it. it looks like the ggem til about 84 then sh/\ts the bed and runs east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 When anybody has news on the Ukie beyond 72, please share it. ive been looking but i havent found anything that GEM really goes negative quite early it seems dubious, at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 yea i just saw that....color me skeptical. Ukie also starts off further north and west but finds a way to run east to the VA coast so it would probably still be a miss east. Nogaps came a bit west but still does the run to the east as well like the ukie. so right now the ggem stands alone which is not the only guy you want in your camp. The discrepencies at 500 seem so minor but i think the ggem might be involving a little more of the northern stream even though it cuts off the 500. That involvement is probably what is bringing it north vs. running east like the others. Because of that, I could potentially see a shift to the ggem if that trend with the northern stream were to continue. If Dr. NO tries to do it then i'll really get interested. lol, it's amazing how the UKIE over the last 4 runs has consistently looked great at 72 and consistently ends up fizzling. Strengthens my belief that the GGEM is out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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