dilly84 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 8:10 PM, buckeye said: nam looks like se.OH gets a decent hit Yea, that gets so close to me its sickening lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 any chance we can get a surprise 50 mile shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 8:10 PM, buckeye said: nam looks like se.OH gets a decent hit Wow, is that close. That primary is hanging on longer. Now, if the NAM did not initialize correctly on the 18z, how accurate is it? Meaning could that snow make it even further north and west. I know-WEENIE ALERT!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 compare current low pressure to the NAM at hr 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 8:13 PM, buckeye said: any chance we can get a surprise 50 mile shift Hah, I just said the same thing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoeWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 8:09 PM, dilly84 said: http://www.nco.ncep....wprod/analysis/ Ruc under 4 panel Ahh, I never use the actual NCEP site, or at least its been a while... Sorry! Never noticed. I'll keep that in mind. Thanks for pointing it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 8:15 PM, dilly84 said: compare current low pressure to the NAM at hr 6 have you? I am not savvy enough to do so. In other words, I don't know how. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 8:17 PM, pondo1000 said: have you? I am not savvy enough to do so. In other words, I don't know how. http://www.usairnet.com/weather/maps/current/barometric-pressure/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 8:19 PM, dilly84 said: http://www.usairnet....etric-pressure/ currently stronger than what the 18z nam shows, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Heavy precip on the radar is NW of the nam.. Nam shows it in Alabama at hr 6 but it is in fact in western tn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 8:23 PM, dilly84 said: Heavy precip on the radar is NW of the nam.. What u think, about 100-150 miles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 8:24 PM, pondo1000 said: What u think, about 100-150 miles? Ask the met lol. MOE? and btw remove the images from your quote But comparing hour 6 of the nam and the current radar, it appears off to me. Looks 150 - 200 miles NW to me. With nothing behind it, to put the heavy band in AL like the NAM shows. so it looks off to me, but as I said I am not a met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Just waiting on the changeover here. I think I'm going to be having an exciting night. Well I'm off the computer for a short time, going to the store, just realized I'm completely out of food. Hope people aren't going bizerk at Wal-Mart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Seems farther west from those images Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 8:39 PM, passmaster16 said: Seems farther west from those images Looks like the NAM is off by about 150 miles. Per radar its nw with that band. Would need a met to chime in. I'm not the greatest at nowcasting, but it looks obvious to me that it is nw. Just broke out google maps. And comparing where hr 6 of the nam shows the heaviest precip near Decatur, AL but current radar has it near Memphis, TN it is 191 miles nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It has to be further northwest by a lot. No forecasters were calling for any rain during the day. Heck my precip chances were only at 20% at midnight last night. This thing is further northwest than anybody anticipated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 8:41 PM, dilly84 said: Looks like the NAM is off by about 150 miles. Per radar its nw with that band. Would need a met to chime in. I'm not the greatest at nowcasting, but it looks obvious to me that it is nw. Just broke out google maps. And comparing where hr 6 of the nam shows the heaviest precip near Decatur, AL but current radar has it near Memphis, TN it is 191 miles nw. Did any of the models show precip that far west? Is it just a larger precip shield or is the system itself positioned differently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 8:50 PM, passmaster16 said: Did any of the models show precip that far west? Is it just a larger precip shield or is the system itself positioned differently? Everything looks right on the model except the piece that would effect ky etc, and that piece looks further NW. The ULL is a bit north as well. Here was the 12z gfs at hr 6. it's off compared to radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 8:13 PM, buckeye said: any chance we can get a surprise 50 mile shift Have you ever been that close? Something similar happened this time last year where snow reached the river then stopped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Moderate band of rain to cross into Indiana in next couple hours per radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 8:53 PM, ArmyGreens said: Moderate band of rain to cross into Indiana in next couple hours per radar. What do you think of that band? Further NW. I wish a met could chime in with thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Not sure dilly...but if it breaks into southern indy we might be seeing more than we expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 8:58 PM, ArmyGreens said: Not sure dilly...but if it breaks into southern indy we might be seeing more than we expected. Map shows storm cells and what direction they are heading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 8:32 PM, dilly84 said: You are comparing a radar shot to a 6 hour total qpf map from the NAM, those are two completely different things. You should be looking at the sim reflectivity image: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Looks like a false alarm then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 9:12 PM, Trent said: You are comparing a radar shot to a 6 hour total qpf map from the NAM, those are two completely different things. You should be looking at the sim reflectivity image: That makes sense...but even based off of the sims the precip is nw of the projection per radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 9:16 PM, ArmyGreens said: That makes sense...but even based off of the sims the precip is nw of the projection per radar. Don't forget that image would be for 7 pm, doesn't appear things are off by that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 9:25 PM, Trent said: Don't forget that image would be for 7 pm, doesn't appear things are off by that much. i dont look at sim radar. but i see your point. Its still off though. there is precip breaking out in souther il/in and the sim radar doesnt show that. And if that is for 7pm and its 4pm now then the precip is still significantly north and will be even more so at 7pm. Also. eventhough that is a qpf map, that was 18z at hr 6, so where is AL going to get the much precip from 18z to 6hrs from now, as that qpf map shows, when the heaviest precip is no where near AL as the 6hr maps shows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 What is interesting is that the RUC does show a band through SW and Central Ohio overnight: http://ruc.noaa.gov/disp2.cgi?/w3/rapb/plots_13km_oper/.//+radar+am+18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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