stormman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 yes the bands are literally like 20 miles wide if even in spots so then over .5 in philly if correct, if all snow then not a bad solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 for kicks and giggles, the nogaps shows yet another solution. rain to heavy wet snow for coastal sections and a nice dump for the interior. notice the HP that has moved into canada between 108 and 120. Same thing showing up on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Euro came a bit east, GFS a bit stronger and west We are reaching a consensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The dashed black line on the precip maps of the ggem (bottom right panel) is an indicator of the snow/rain line. Not pretty for many. the good thing is the GGEM might be the pitts of all models...its on the same level as the NOGAPS in my opinion....has it ever been right 108-120 hrs out? NEVER would be my guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Just for fun, our Japanese friends take on next week..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 540 thickness literaly runs along I95 from DC to NYC at 96 half way between Dover and Wilmington, DE to PHL to NYC at 102 by 106 collapsed to Jersey Shore to cutting LI in half 114 off shore til cape cod precip over for region by then 850 0 line only makes to salisbury MD to ACY at 102 before collapsing offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GEM is where the NAM was headed. Heavy snow for Appalachians . thankfully the GGEM is never right and the NAM is obviously in its in money range at 84hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 12Z UKM, fwiw just by looking at the 108hr map i would say it looks good...but i have no idea what the surface temps/wind direction/850 temps/etc etc are.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Just for fun, our Japanese friends take on next week..... That would be rain to heavy snow it looks like. Is that second high saving us again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 thankfully the GGEM is never right and the NAM is obviously in its in money range at 84hrs Im glad we have the gfs and euro both showing mostly snow for us, even if its a wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 just by looking at the 108hr map i would say it looks good...but i have no idea what the surface temps/wind direction/850 temps/etc etc are.... I would say very marginal temp profile outside of the interior, but as you say, we don't have any real data... That would be rain to heavy snow it looks like. Is that second high saving us again? Looks like a hot mess, lol.....yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Just for fun, our Japanese friends take on next week..... lol gotta love it. Here's the CRAS at 84 hrs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Mets...any take on the EURO? Is it possible that seasonal trend wins out once more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Mets...any take on the EURO? Is it possible that seasonal trend wins out once more? seasonal trend would bring it closer to the coast, no? i'm not a met, but i expect that shift to begin this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I tend to agree regarding the southeast flow and what transpires from that especially west of the fall line. I noticed that many times the Lehigh Valley tends to hold onto a northeast wind at the surface, although light, when guidance wants to turn it east or southeast. This then holds in the low-level cold air in longer. It will be interesting to see however with a dynamic system that the easterly component of the wind could drive milder air farther inland especially aloft. Lots of questions to be ironed out. Way to early to be talking about warnings. By the way, there are no longer Heavy Snow Warnings. That was consolidated a few years ago into the Winter Storm Warning headline. Sorry if this is out of topic, but I actually liked the Heavy Snow Warning to indicate just a snow event with warning criteria accumulations, and a WSW to indicate snow + wind, or snow+mixed, etc. I can see the logic for simplifying the alerts issued to the public, but I felt it was a little more useful to add specificity. My $0.03. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 seasonal trend would bring it closer to the coast, no? i'm not a met, but i expect that shift to begin this evening. Uhhh...we all know the seasonal trend is to get NYC/PHL and coastal areas to the best snows while leaving western areas on the outside looking in...right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Sorry if this is out of topic, but I actually liked the Heavy Snow Warning to indicate just a snow event with warning criteria accumulations, and a WSW to indicate snow + wind, or snow+mixed, etc. I can see the logic for simplifying the alerts issued to the public, but I felt it was a little more useful to add specificity. My $0.03. Do you remember the "provisional heavy snow warning". Herb Clark from CH 10 PHL use to say that a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 lol gotta love it. Here's the CRAS at 84 hrs: This model makes dreams come true every single run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I would say very marginal temp profile outside of the interior, but as you say, we don't have any real data... Looks like a hot mess, lol.....yes. JMA def. builds in the second high which comes in just as the coastal starts cranking. Its def. rain for some of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Here are the 12z GGEM ensembles. The mean is near the BM. Most of the members are coastal huggers. Some are OTS and 3 are very inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 JMA def. builds in the second high which comes in just as the coastal starts cranking. Its def. rain for some of it. Euro is also driving some very cold air into this system....the upper levels look great on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I tend to agree regarding the southeast flow and what transpires from that especially west of the fall line. I noticed that many times the Lehigh Valley tends to hold onto a northeast wind at the surface, although light, when guidance wants to turn it east or southeast. This then holds in the low-level cold air in longer. It will be interesting to see however with a dynamic system that the easterly component of the wind could drive milder air farther inland especially aloft. Lots of questions to be ironed out. Way to early to be talking about warnings. By the way, there are no longer Heavy Snow Warnings. That was consolidated a few years ago into the Winter Storm Warning headline. Thanks Mike . Did not know about the heavy snow warnings being removed.What I do notice is that when the winds swing to the SE, the moisture content increases dramatically in the snowflake-- half- dollar size. I also have seen the LV hold on to the NE winds the entire storm event. What I also notice is that in the summer months, when the winds swing to the SE, we have convective issues. Will this happen with this setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Euro is also driving some very cold air into this system....the upper levels look great on this run. its fun to focus on the big blue H, but when the storm takes a good track and starts to bomb and you have deep snow cover all over the ne and canada, its going to draw cold air into it on the back side unless there is an ocean i am missing in upstate ny. its the end of january, its cold, and if this doesnt cut or go up the plain and takes a favorable track without torching the coast with easterly winds, the setup can work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Im glad we have the gfs and euro both showing mostly snow for us, even if its a wet snow. I don't mind wet snow actually. I think it's actually nicer looking than the dry, powdery snow which doesn't cling as readily to most surfaces. The 4" of snow yesterday morning looked quite scenic because of how pasty it was. The downside of course is how much harder it is to shovel. That said, it's a very precarious situation for us and there's almost nothing locking a snowy solution for coastal locales. The track has to be perfect and we have to be in the small sliver of real estate where it's cold enough and wet enough. I'm still really not liking the prospect for a deep easterly fetch as the storm arrives. Those very rarely work out well for us. 98 times out of 100 it's wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 for kicks and giggles, the nogaps shows yet another solution. rain to heavy wet snow for coastal sections and a nice dump for the interior. notice the HP that has moved into canada between 108 and 120. Same thing showing up on the euro. The low should be further east than the Nogaps has it based on that 500mb chart, unless at that point it's vertically stacked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 its fun to focus on the big blue H, but when the storm takes a good track and starts to bomb and you have deep snow cover all over the ne and canada, its going to draw cold air into it on the back side unless there is an ocean i am missing in upstate ny. its the end of january, its cold, and if this doesnt cut or go up the plain and takes a favorable track without torching the coast with easterly winds, the setup can work. Good timing on this run of the Euro....I wonder if this doesn't just doesn't slip away from us all together? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 its fun to focus on the big blue H, but when the storm takes a good track and starts to bomb and you have deep snow cover all over the ne and canada, its going to draw cold air into it on the back side unless there is an ocean i am missing in upstate ny. its the end of january, its cold, and if this doesnt cut or go up the plain and takes a favorable track without torching the coast with easterly winds, the setup can work. You bring up an interesting point. I've noticed some people say "it snows where it wants to snow"-- but Im wondering if its more a function of snow albedo feedback helping maintain certain storm tracks because the snow intensifies the depth of an arctic airmass and thus the strength of the block. In the noted years of when an arctic airmass was quickly scoured out, we didnt have a deep snow cover, not even in Jan 1994. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Uhhh...we all know the seasonal trend is to get NYC/PHL and coastal areas to the best snows while leaving western areas on the outside looking in...right? Well the seasonal trend is closer to the coast. Which, with a moisture-loaded system (remember, this is NOT a Miller B ) would be better for inland areas, while I-95 potentially has BL issues or even rain. I don't think you can say that it is a seasonal trend to screw one area when every storm is different. There is a trend in tracks, yes, but each storm is different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 By the way..no changes from upton yet. Still going snowy. .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... BETTER MODEL CLUSTERING WITH REGARD TO POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY MODEL RUNS. THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH THIS TIME FRAME IS EVOLUTION OF MID WEST UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW...AND ITS PROGRESSION TO THE EAST. LATEST GFS A BIT FASTER THAN 00Z ECMWF WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER AND SFC LOW...WITH GGEM SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST EVENTUALLY. AS MENTIONED...MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS TODAY WITH A SFC LOW TRACK SOMEWHERE AROUND THE 40/70 BENCHMARK (EXCEPT GGEM)...OR JUST INSIDE AS WE HAVE SEEN SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER. DRY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SE CANADA/CANADIAN MARITIMES GETS KICKED OUT AS MID WEST CLOSED LOW PIVOTS AROUND MEAN TROUGH. THIS DEEP TROUGH DIGS AS IT MOVES EAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. AGAIN...TIMING AND SLIGHT POSITIONING DIFFERENCES NOTED...BUT GIVEN SEVERAL DAYS OUT...GENERALLY EXPECT LOW PRESSURE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN PASS SOMEWHERE NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK AS ALREADY MENTIONED...THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EXPECT SNOW TO MOVE IN LATER TUESDAY...WITH WINTRY MIX COAST AND MORE SNOW INTERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IF FORECAST TRACK VERIFIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 You bring up an interesting point. I've noticed some people say "it snows where it wants to snow"-- but Im wondering if its more a function of snow albedo feedback helping maintain certain storm tracks because the snow intensifies the depth of an arctic airmass and thus the strength of the block. In the noted years of when an arctic airmass was quickly scoured out, we didnt have a deep snow cover, not even in Jan 1994. It can help develop a baroclinic zone and in that sense develop a favored storm track, but snow cover doesn't "lock in" a certain track in any real way. I would say that an inland track isn't favored in this situation, but the low can certainly be close enough anyway to cause us to switch to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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