forkyfork Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 nyc gets .5", boston 1" the snow would be very wet, so amounts not much greater than 10-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 shouldn't be that surprising considering the 0z ensembles showed something like this right? the 0z op followed the 12z more amped ensems,and now vice verse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Last 3 runs of the Euro have trended colder for NYC......deference to the GFS Ensembles which have been steady with this one as well as the Euro Ensembles.... the ensemble mean is an average of solutions showing rain for nyc or out to sea if the low gets close enough, we get rain... the OTS solutions are skewing the temp profiles when they really wouldn't look that way if the low got close enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Again, time to really start watching that new HP that the gefs show and now the euro, it could be the game changer here. very positive trend today, could be our knight in shining armor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 euro holds onto the first high longer as it moves up, not totally off the coast, and the new HP is coming in fast which looks to prevent the slp from coming inland or up the coastal plain. Its scary how it looks like the dgex last night but less wrapped up. Probably as close as it can come to the coast and still give the coastal plain snow. Again, time to really start watching that new HP that the gefs show and now the euro, it could be the game changer here. We'd been talking about this for a few days- a delayed storm isnt a bad thing because the next Arctic high comes to replace the one that's departing. This is a winter that's going to dominated by Arctic highs and blocking, as if we weren't aware of that already Some people have chosen to ignore the fact that the blocking is getting stronger on every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 very positive trend today, could be our knight in shining armor For you guys...for the interior it could be the burglar that steals the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Last 3 runs of the Euro have trended colder for NYC......deference to the GFS Ensembles which have been steady with this one as well as the Euro Ensembles...raw Euro output this run shows 4-6" of slop for NYC.... yes, the gefs are really solid this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I think that the track of the surface low will fall somewhere between the 12z GFS and 00z ECMWF. It will be interesting to see what the 12z ECMWF decides to do. It does seem like the storms have been trending closer to the coast this season and this is what concerns me. The large arctic high is forecast to be sliding eastward with time so with nothing really to anchor that cold source to our north or northeast, the flow becomes east to southeast so the milder air will be translated westward. There will probably be a well defined coastal front developing and that will tend to strengthen the thermal gradient. Will this be enough to pull the surface low farther west? Not real sure just yet. The signals are there though for a potentially large and significant Nor'easter but the track is a real nail-biter at this point. Mike, History of these type of storms in the LV with SE winds is that you have mixing issues right below the fall line into Philly. The LV gets dumped on with banding setups in the past. I have seen 6 inches and heavy sleet in harleysville and 12 inches or more in macungie . You are correct that setting up the that track is critical. The faster the low-level SE winds, the more mixing problems we have. The milder air tends to die at the fall line and I think that is the case with this storm. It will interesting if you guys at Mt. Holly issue Heavy snow warnings for the LV. I do not believe we meet the criteria for blizzard warnings but with the possibility of whiteout conditions with the lower visibility you will have a tough call on how you word the winter storm or heavy snow warnings. Thanks Mike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 the ensemble mean is an average of solutions showing rain for nyc or out to sea if the low gets close enough, we get rain... the OTS solutions are skewing the temp profiles when they really wouldn't look that way if the low got close enough Right, so this run of the Euro Operational is a reason for cheer, IMO. When I posted the last three runs of this model have trended colder each successive run, I was using the operational raw data, not the ensemble data.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The Euro, in one run, switched MDT and RDG from 2' to nothing at all. Simply amazing, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 yes, the gefs are really solid this winter. Both ensemble suites have been better than the OPs lol. Also, when in doubt, defer to the blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 strong miller b singal on gfs and euro today. ggem tries to pop another miller a. This is at 150 ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 looks like there is going to be a consensus amongst the major model by 12Z tomorrow - seems like the solution will be just off the coast - with the mix and change over lines in the usual positions - central - eastern LI SW through eastern monmouth county NJ - eastern Ocean and then slicing the rest of south jersey in half through the Del Marva in other words the usual suspects this winter so far ................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 the best possible solution for us is a graze. any closer and we get rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 strong miller b singal on gfs and euro today. ggem tries to pop another miller a. Uh, not really. The GFS/ECMWF/GGEM all develop the low in the Gulf of Mexico. Where it tracks after that is what is in question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Mike, History of these type of storms in the LV with SE winds is that you have mixing issues right below the fall line into Philly. The LV gets dumped on with banding setups in the past. I have seen 6 inches and heavy sleet in harleysville and 12 inches or more in macungie . You are correct that setting up the that track is critical. The faster the low-level SE winds, the more mixing problems we have. The milder air tends to die at the fall line and I think that is the case with this storm. It will interesting if you guys at Mt. Holly issue Heavy snow warnings for the LV. I do not believe we meet the criteria for blizzard warnings but with the possibility of whiteout conditions with the lower visibility you will have a tough call on how you word the winter storm or heavy snow warnings. Thanks Mike I thought heavy snow warnings no longer existed. Winter storm warning is the top of the scale as far as I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Mike, History of these type of storms in the LV with SE winds is that you have mixing issues right below the fall line into Philly. The LV gets dumped on with banding setups in the past. I have seen 6 inches and heavy sleet in harleysville and 12 inches or more in macungie . You are correct that setting up the that track is critical. The faster the low-level SE winds, the more mixing problems we have. The milder air tends to die at the fall line and I think that is the case with this storm. It will interesting if you guys at Mt. Holly issue Heavy snow warnings for the LV. I do not believe we meet the criteria for blizzard warnings but with the possibility of whiteout conditions with the lower visibility you will have a tough call on how you word the winter storm or heavy snow warnings. Thanks Mike Heavy Snow Warnings no longer exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 QPF for even for our region .1 Harrisburg, PA to Tamaqua, PA up to Scranton, PA all of Ny state .25 just west of DC to Lancaster, PA to Reading to Easton, to Newton, NJ, to Poughkeapske, NY to NW corner of CT .5 Dc to Baltomore to King of Prussia, PA to Newark, Yonkers to Danbury, CT .75 eastern DC to Wilmington DE, to Trenton to NYC to Harford 1" Richmond, VA to near Dover, DE to sandy Hook, NJ to levitown, LI to Norwich, CT 1.25 petersburg, VA to milford, DE to toms river NJ to southhampton LI to Providence RI 1.5 williamsburg, VA to salisbury, MD south of NJ maybe brushing extreme eastern LI into RI that really hurt my eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 the best possible solution for us is a graze. any closer and we get rain Which is pretty awful considering all the Arctic air both ahead and behind the storm. The weather in our area is about as paradoxical as anywhere lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 looks like there is going to be a consensus amongst the major model by 12Z tomorrow - seems like the solution will be just off the coast - with the mix and change over lines in the usual positions - central - eastern LI SW through eastern monmouth county NJ - eastern Ocean and then slicing the rest of south jersey in half through the Del Marva in other words the usual suspects this winter so far ................. I dont know about consensus because we've seen the models scamper back and forth numerous times this winter. No solution is off the table yet and I wouldnt commit to anything until Monday at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Noreaster07, thank you for the summary. People are so imby obsessed when they post what models say they forget there are other areas represented in the subforum. This only goes for the Euro since the other models have available qpf data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 QPF for even for our region .1 Harrisburg, PA to Tamaqua, PA up to Scranton, PA all of Ny state .25 just west of DC to Lancaster, PA to Reading to Easton, to Newton, NJ, to Poughkeapske, NY to NW corner of CT .5 Dc to Baltomore to King of Prussia, PA to Newark, Yonkers to Danbury, CT .75 eastern DC to Wilmington DE, to Trenton to NYC to Harford 1" Richmond, VA to near Dover, DE to sandy Hook, NJ to levitown, LI to Norwich, CT 1.25 petersburg, VA to milford, DE to toms river NJ to southhampton LI to Providence RI 1.5 williamsburg, VA to salisbury, MD south of NJ maybe brushing extreme eastern LI into RI that really hurt my eyes is this the totals from the 12z euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 the best possible solution for us is a graze. any closer and we get rain yep...this is prob as good as it can get for the 95 area....what people need to remember this is 96-102 hrs out....believeing 2 inch qpf outputs 120 hrs out need to be taken with a grain of salt. This is going to waver the next few runs......as all costals tend to do.......Like many have said a wrap up/amplified bomb will be rain for the 95 area no doubt....further east then ur typical snow track for nyc will prob do it for the 95 area......people from pitt-nyc are still all in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 QPF for even for our region .1 Harrisburg, PA to Tamaqua, PA up to Scranton, PA all of Ny state .25 just west of DC to Lancaster, PA to Reading to Easton, to Newton, NJ, to Poughkeapske, NY to NW corner of CT .5 Dc to Baltomore to King of Prussia, PA to Newark, Yonkers to Danbury, CT .75 eastern DC to Wilmington DE, to Trenton to NYC to Harford 1" Richmond, VA to near Dover, DE to sandy Hook, NJ to levitown, LI to Norwich, CT 1.25 petersburg, VA to milford, DE to toms river NJ to southhampton LI to Providence RI 1.5 williamsburg, VA to salisbury, MD south of NJ maybe brushing extreme eastern LI into RI that really hurt my eyes thanks for the pbp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Can someone please clarify? I've heard everything from snow in NYC to surface temps being back into central PA on the Euro...a bit contradictory. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Does anyone think the Euro is following the trend of the GFS and this is going to wind up almost/completely OTS in a couple of days on the models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 is this the totals from the 12z euro? yes the bands are literally like 20 miles wide if even in spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Can someone please clarify? I've heard everything from snow in NYC to surface temps being back into central PA on the Euro...a bit contradictory. Thanks. Just over .5 liquid equivalent at LGA, surface temps get to 34ºF, 850s never get above freezing, 540 dm overhead at warmest point. From AccuWx PPV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Just over .5 liquid equivalent at LGA, surface temps get to 34ºF, 850s never get above freezing, 540 dm overhead at warmest point. From AccuWx PPV. Euro/GFS are a win in my book. I would rather have nothing and save the snowpack than a rainstorm or even a little snow than rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Mike, History of these type of storms in the LV with SE winds is that you have mixing issues right below the fall line into Philly. The LV gets dumped on with banding setups in the past. I have seen 6 inches and heavy sleet in harleysville and 12 inches or more in macungie . You are correct that setting up the that track is critical. The faster the low-level SE winds, the more mixing problems we have. The milder air tends to die at the fall line and I think that is the case with this storm. It will interesting if you guys at Mt. Holly issue Heavy snow warnings for the LV. I do not believe we meet the criteria for blizzard warnings but with the possibility of whiteout conditions with the lower visibility you will have a tough call on how you word the winter storm or heavy snow warnings. Thanks Mike I tend to agree regarding the southeast flow and what transpires from that especially west of the fall line. I noticed that many times the Lehigh Valley tends to hold onto a northeast wind at the surface, although light, when guidance wants to turn it east or southeast. This then holds in the low-level cold air in longer. It will be interesting to see however with a dynamic system that the easterly component of the wind could drive milder air farther inland especially aloft. Lots of questions to be ironed out. Way to early to be talking about warnings. By the way, there are no longer Heavy Snow Warnings. That was consolidated a few years ago into the Winter Storm Warning headline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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