Noreaster07 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 84 1008 low FL/GA border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Euro just might deliver the goods....lol.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Interesting. So what then do you think should be happening? Mike, does the last run of the euro look right to you? The GFS is out in right field literally. The euro being closer to the coast brings the warmth in and undercuts the existing high. Your thoughts please? I think that the track of the surface low will fall somewhere between the 12z GFS and 00z ECMWF. It will be interesting to see what the 12z ECMWF decides to do. It does seem like the storms have been trending closer to the coast this season and this is what concerns me. The large arctic high is forecast to be sliding eastward with time so with nothing really to anchor that cold source to our north or northeast, the flow becomes east to southeast so the milder air will be translated westward. There will probably be a well defined coastal front developing and that will tend to strengthen the thermal gradient. Will this be enough to pull the surface low farther west? Not real sure just yet. The signals are there though for a potentially large and significant Nor'easter but the track is a real nail-biter at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 hr 90 1004 just off the se coast...850's off the coast and surface runs along 95....looks like it will further east then the 00z solution... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 90 surface low further south and weaker than 00z 1004 off myrtle beach, vs 100 over Wilmington, NC H5 trough going negative in GA and cut off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 96 hours: 996 low over HSE, I-95 N&W below freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 euro looks nothing like last night and is adctually pretty spot on to 12z gfs. Can the euro humping stop now? neither model is likely handling this correctly. Time to start paying attention to that HP coming out of canada behind the current one. It seems to be taking a more prominent role. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 hr 96 low just north of hse....snow for phl-dc....se of there 850's are cold...but surface is past them...snj for example 1000mb low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 96 996 low over OBX, vs 888 over Norfolk on 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 EC DAY 4: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 102 Bang Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 hr 96 low just north of hse....snow for phl-dc....se of there 850's are cold...but surface is past them...snj for example 1000mb low Sounds great! Maybe a step towards the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 euro looks like the dgex now, LOL. 850's are cold but surface is warm and then cools down quickly. another day, another solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 How far west does the QPF extend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 hr 102 992 150 miles east of delware...850's are cold, but surface is in central PA....qpf is back to just west of phl... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 102 988 low 100 miles off delmava vs 980 mouth of DE Bay on 00z precip comapct not making it up to LV in PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 euro looks nothing like last night and is adctually pretty spot on to 12z gfs. Can the euro humping stop now? neither model is likely handling this correctly. Time to start paying attention to that HP coming out of canada behind the current one. It seems to be taking a more prominent role. The incoming HP is probably the key player here. If it is too late, too much warm air will have a chance to flood into the system but if it drops far enough se and is able to supply enough cold air to be wrapped into the low, many of us even at the coast could still get a good dump of snow. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I think that the track of the surface low will fall somewhere between the 12z GFS and 00z ECMWF. It will be interesting to see what the 12z ECMWF decides to do. It does seem like the storms have been trending closer to the coast this season and this is what concerns me. The large arctic high is forecast to be sliding eastward with time so with nothing really to anchor that cold source to our north or northeast, the flow becomes east to southeast so the milder air will be translated westward. There will probably be a well defined coastal front developing and that will tend to strengthen the thermal gradient. Will this be enough to pull the surface low farther west? Not real sure just yet. The signals are there though for a potentially large and significant Nor'easter but the track is a real nail-biter at this point. Well put; Agreed 100%. Lots of potential for significant precip, but the lack of anchored cold air will be a problem regardless for the coast. Further inland could have temp issues as well depending on how far west the low tracks. We have a large enough spread yet in the forecasts for a lot to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 hr 108 preciep moving out....850's off the coast....surface just nw of 95....looks like a heavy wet snow bomb for sne....low east of LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rok Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 seems like the models are all pretty much agreeing on the fact that the H pressure is going to be a non-factor for keeping the cold locked in, it's an all or nothing scenario in regards to threading the needle with the low track and unfortunately they usually don't work out (at least for the coastal plain) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 hr 108 preciep moving out....850's off the coast....surface just nw of 95....looks like a heavy wet snow bomb for sne....low east of LI Does NYC get any precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 108 984 low 200 or so miles east of NJ precip only reaching coastal sections Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 euro looks to be about to .5 to .6 for nyc and is probably wet snow. 850's are cold, 540 line is probably on top at the warmest. Surface is above freezing but euro can struggle with surface temps. nothing like any of its other runs. Surface cools down with precip still going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 hr 114 is a condo crusher for boston......preciep never makes it back to the lehigh valley...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 euro looks to be about to .5 to .6 for nyc and is probably wet snow. 850's are cold, 540 line is probably on top at the warmest. Surface is above freezing but euro can struggle with surface temps. nothing like any of its other runs,. Does it bring that supporting high pressure in, keeping the 850s cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The way I see it is with blocking, timing is less of an issue because a strong block will maintain confluence and a 50/50 low in place. But without blocking, timing is everything. Kind of like with tropical systems that threaten the east coast. They have to arrive at the right moment or they go OTS, if the storm is a little bit slower or the high moves in faster, than we'll have more options than just 100% rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 12Z Euro sounds like a typical 2010-2011 coastal snowstorm with most precip staying to the east in NJ and NYC east. heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 EC DAY 5: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 euro holds onto the first high longer as it moves up, not totally off the coast, and the new HP is coming in fast which looks to prevent the slp from coming inland or up the coastal plain. Its scary how it looks like the dgex last night but less wrapped up. Probably as close as it can come to the coast and still give the coastal plain snow. Again, time to really start watching that new HP that the gefs show and now the euro, it could be the game changer here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Last 3 runs of the Euro have trended colder for NYC......deference to the GFS Ensembles which have been steady with this one as well as the Euro Ensembles...raw Euro output this run shows 4-6" of slop for NYC.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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