forkyfork Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 3 of them show a coastal hugger and the rest are either OTS or a coastal hit. Either the Euro or the GFS is going to burn with this storm. The GGEM is an outlier. only one of them is a hit for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I would take that in a heartbeat. GGEM is the only model with an inland bomb. Lets see what the Euro serves up. Well, we're due to get screwed lol....this is probably going to be the one...we'll see though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I would take that in a heartbeat. GGEM is the only model with an inland bomb. Lets see what the Euro serves up. you don't need an inland bomb to get rain out of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Well I'm not seeing anything to get exited about...not until I see HP in a more favorable position. As far as I can tell, thats going to be everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 this. we have been having this discussion since last night, you dont automatically get snow just because a low tracks east of you. you don't need an inland bomb to get rain out of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 you don't need an inland bomb to get rain out of this Yes I know that. This is a thread the needle situation but a lot of people are already giving up on snow on the coast. Too early for that in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The players wont be on the field so to speak until Monday AM.. Everyone should not go crazy with each model run. Like PPL did yesterday and today at 12z The players will be on the field by 12z runs tomorrow. That's 48-60 before the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The 12z run is exactly what JB said would happen it will go OTS and then slowly bring it back. By 0z tonight it will show the Snow to Rain at the coast....Snow to ZR to Rain in the big cities and then more snow/ice to rain as you go NW of I95. This has all the earmarks of a traditional Northeast storm. By the way current Wxsim off the 12z has all snow (but only 2") for the NW Philly burbs....that will be changing big time with later runs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The NAO isn't even strong. It's negative right now going neutral. AO is going neutral and the PNA is positive with the MJO going into Phase 8. None of these suggest an inland bomb. Now, if the NAO and AO was really positive, then I would consider an inland runner. I know the NAO is east based but we have seen many storms in the past with an east based NAO. I think this storm is either going a coastal hugger or a coastal storm just offshore. Another thing is that the GFS and the ensembles have a nother high coming down, just in time for the storm. Another interesting thing. A near benchmark track would be a driving rainstorm for the majority of the coastal plain. Weak east-based NAO does little to keep the Canadian high in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Given the dominant easterly flow evident on the latest guidances, chances for snow east of I-95 are rapidly dwindling. I still stand by my earlier comment that everyone should look at the position of a classic I-95 KU storm with the positioning of the high. It is early, but I think all snow chances are on life support for many eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 at 36 trough hanging back slight less compared to 00z same time slightly less ampd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The 12z run is exactly what JB said would happen it will go OTS and then slowly bring it back. By 0z tonight it will show the Snow to Rain at the coast....Snow to ZR to Rain in the big cities and then more snow/ice to rain as you go NW of I95. This has all the earmarks of a traditional Northeast storm. By the way current Wxsim off the 12z has all snow (but only 2") for the NW Philly burbs....that will be changing big time with later runs! Are you a spokesman for JB? The 12z GFS does not look right, at least with the synoptic regime. It looks to take the mid level energy and keep it compact. This keeps the system closer together as it bombs and then the entire upper trough ends up being to far east, thus the surface low now much farther to the east. To compact in the mid levels especially early on, at least in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 42 surface 1028 SE quebec, same location as 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Are you a spokesman for JB? The 12z GFS does not look right, at least with the synoptic regime. It looks to take the mid level energy and keep it compact. This keeps the system closer together as it bombs and then the entire upper trough ends up being to far east, thus the surface low now much farther to the east. To compact in the mid levels especially early on, at least in my opinion. Interesting. So what then do you think should be happening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Is this really necessary? Come on now! Agreed. Thanks for your previous post input, Mike. Would love it if you posted more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Hi Mike No spokesman...but love to share his thoughts along with the other pro mets on this site. I think there is value with all opinions....not saying one will ultimately be right. But it sounds like you are singing from the same sheet as JB on this one! Paul . Are you a spokesman for JB? The 12z GFS does not look right, at least with the synoptic regime. It looks to take the mid level energy and keep it compact. This keeps the system closer together as it bombs and then the entire upper trough ends up being to far east, thus the surface low now much farther to the east. To compact in the mid levels especially early on, at least in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 12z FIM OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 High pressure weaker at 54 1028, vs 1032 for 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 12z FIM OTS lol at least the FIM is showing this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Are you a spokesman for JB? The 12z GFS does not look right, at least with the synoptic regime. It looks to take the mid level energy and keep it compact. This keeps the system closer together as it bombs and then the entire upper trough ends up being to far east, thus the surface low now much farther to the east. To compact in the mid levels especially early on, at least in my opinion. Mike, does the last run of the euro look right to you? The GFS is out in right field literally. The euro being closer to the coast brings the warmth in and undercuts the existing high. Your thoughts please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Euro def less amped up than its 0Z run through 66 hours.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 66 High pressure 1028 centered over Boston, same location as 00z but less broad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 hr 72 euro 12z low south of NO in the gulf.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 72 low pop just south of Houma, LA, 1028 well out to sea past cape cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 hr 78 low south of the pandhandel......surface is above frz for i-95...850's run through central VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yes and worse that it's from a met. Absolutely disgusting. Atrocious. Unreadable and mods won't even delete it. Everyone please start REPORTING ALL posts that do not contribute to the discussion. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 78 1012 low south of Moblie, AL in gulf, high pressure long gone trough less amped and more positive tilt than 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 EC DAY 3 (High Pressure going E): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 1008 low over northern fl at hr 84....850's up to acy....surface runs along 95 or just nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 On my iPad and she no like AmWX, so I'm not gonna bother trying to detail or post images, but the 12Z NOGAPS looks tasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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