Snowmizer Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 What about dynamics? If the low is strong enough, it could still snow if it can create its own cold air source, I've seen it happen countless times even with a lack of cold air. I don't think this is 100% rain by any means yet. Also, we have had snowstorms without blocking, just because we don't have blocking doesn't mean we can't get a storm. Yes, but as previously mentioned (ESPECIALLY for folks like you and me), a shift of the wind flow to a predominantly easterly component for 6-12 hours is complete and utter death every time for us along the coast. Way too much warm air entraining in at multiple levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 What about dynamics? If the low is strong enough, it could still snow if it can create its own cold air source, I've seen it happen countless times even with a lack of cold air. I don't think this is 100% rain by any means yet. Also, we have had snowstorms without blocking, just because we don't have blocking doesn't mean we can't get a storm. There will be a storm.....just it would be most likely rain along the coast with the antecedent temperature profiles along the EC (ie modified maritime air). Go look at the soundings. It would take enormous dynamical cooling to get snow to fall along the coast, verbatim GFS, or a change to a more blocking (ie HP stationary over ME). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 What about dynamics? If the low is strong enough, it could still snow if it can create its own cold air source, I've seen it happen countless times even with a lack of cold air. I don't think this is 100% rain by any means yet. Also, we have had snowstorms without blocking, just because we don't have blocking doesn't mean we can't get a storm. I did notice that on the GFS, the freezing line heads back east as the low goes north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I honestly can't believe how challenging a pattern this is for models. We're 3 days out from the event, and never mind p-type or anything else, our modeling can't even agree on the general cyclogenesis. This winter should send a lot of people back to their synoptic meteorology textbooks, and is a perfect example of why it's METEORology and not MODELology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 " *** ALERT ALERT *** 12Z GFS shifts from OHIO to GA IN 1 RUN !!!**** once again proving how awful this model is on east coast winter storms solutions past 84 hrs... The GFS just BLINKED .... some of l those idiots mets at American saying how the GFS midwest solution could be correct... LOL... ROTLOL... ROTFLMAO...." LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I think the NCEP guys saw all the regional bickering in this thread and said "screw all of you, we'll just take it out to sea and you won't have to worry about it anymore". Just for lulz, here are the totals from the 12Z OP GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 " *** ALERT ALERT *** 12Z GFS shifts from OHIO to GA IN 1 RUN !!!**** once again proving how awful this model is on east coast winter storms solutions past 84 hrs... The GFS just BLINKED .... some of l those idiots mets at American saying how the GFS midwest solution could be correct... LOL... ROTLOL... ROTFLMAO...." LOL Why is anyone allowed to post anything from him? He really needs to grow up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Thanks guys...someone just mentioned that the storm moving closer to the coast, the mechanisms involved in that, would cause temps to crash? Is there any credence in the "storm creates it's own cold air" theory? Rapidly deepening storms can lower thicknesses, as the "bombing" takes place. as soon as the occlusion process begins in such systems, the various Mid and Upper level lows stack and thicknesses stabilize and then rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 If this pans out like most guidance is indicating we will have two major storms in exactly one month on the 26th, one with 2 ft of snow this one with 2 inches of rain. Hopefully we get a good front end thump and the deep arctic cold hangs tough from being scoured out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 " *** ALERT ALERT *** 12Z GFS shifts from OHIO to GA IN 1 RUN !!!**** once again proving how awful this model is on east coast winter storms solutions past 84 hrs... The GFS just BLINKED .... some of l those idiots mets at American saying how the GFS midwest solution could be correct... LOL... ROTLOL... ROTFLMAO...." LOL dt has been nothing but awful this year, hes the last guy id want a forecast from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 dt has been nothing but awful this year, hes the last guy id want a forecast from Agreed. Hence that lack or radio shows and lack of his input on these boards. It doesn't help that he has a significant regional bias. I don't even understand his most recent FB statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I honestly can't believe how challenging a pattern this is for models. We're 3 days out from the event, and never mind p-type or anything else, our modeling can't even agree on the general cyclogenesis. This winter should send a lot of people back to their synoptic meteorology textbooks, and is a perfect example of why it's METEORology and not MODELology. Great point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 dt has been nothing but awful this year, hes the last guy id want a forecast from its so hard for me to listen to anything from someone with the writing and communication skills of a 4 year old. sorry for posting it if i offended anyone Anyway, I guess until we get more of the players over land, none of this is set in stone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GGEM apps runner, juiced low near CLT at 96 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 12z GFS ensemble mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 ggem looks amp'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Doesn't that high on the Canadian look in a better spot? Looks like it will still be warm, but maybe a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Why is anyone allowed to post anything from him? He really needs to grow up instead.........how about someone more civil and very honest........Rob G........he is having a radio show tonight (see blog) and people are welcome to call in................ http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/prometweatherblogs/3/2/4170/MODELS-&-PATTERN-SERVE-UP-A-BIG-NOR%27EASTER-%28AUDIO-BLOG%29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 108 on the GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 East winds out ahead of the storm for 12 hours Though it has been said hundreds of times in the last day, people don't seem to want to believe that a retreating high brings e and se winds and turns the coastal plain to mix and then rain. Has been happening my whole life. The interior can do well, but not the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Though it has been said hundreds of times in the last day, people don't seem to want to believe that a retreating high brings e and se winds and turns the coastal plain to mix and then rain. Has been happening my whole life. The interior can do well, but not the coastal plain. And it's not just at the surface or just above.....the east winds (or a component thereof) would be prevalent for a good portion of the profile.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GGEM has another big bomb. Low goes right on top of NYC or just slightly west of there. Rain for many areas. Horrible solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Doesn't that high on the Canadian look in a better spot? Looks like it will still be warm, but maybe a good sign. You, me, and anyone that can read those maps know it's 99% rain for I-95. In fact, the 540 thickness line retreats to Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Looks juicy in NC. Anyone got any reports? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Do the GFS ensembles do total precip? If so, I'd like to see a map of that. Also, where do you get those maps/links like that? You know the old saying "give the man a fish feed him for a day, teach him how to fish and teach him for a lifetime." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxLover Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Though it has been said hundreds of times in the last day, people don't seem to want to believe that a retreating high brings e and se winds and turns the coastal plain to mix and then rain. Has been happening my whole life. The interior can do well, but not the coastal plain. Best statement of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 And it's not just at the surface or just above.....the east winds (or a component thereof) would be prevalent for a good portion of the profile.... This is exactly why I had primarily mixed precip for this last storm....A much stronger storm would only bring warmer air and further west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Do the GFS ensembles do total precip? If so, I'd like to see a map of that. Also, where do you get those maps/links like that? You know the old saying "give the man a fish feed him for a day, teach him how to fish and teach him for a lifetime." This is snow for many areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Do the GFS ensembles do total precip? If so, I'd like to see a map of that. Also, where do you get those maps/links like that? You know the old saying "give the man a fish feed him for a day, teach him how to fish and teach him for a lifetime." http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 You, me, and anyone that can read those maps know it's 99% rain for I-95. In fact, the 540 thickness line retreats to Erie. Yep, not a good solution verbatim. I was just looking at the B&W maps and thought it could be better because it has a high not far off Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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