Ed Lizard Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Roth at HPC... NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH WESTERN CANADA/NORTHERNPLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW MOVING NEARBY THE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST...PREFERENCE FOR A 00Z NAM/00Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF/00Z GEFS MEAN COMPROMISE THE NAM HAS TRENDED SLOWER/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE GFS/GEFS MEAN HAVE TRENDED ABOUT 800 MILES/24 HOURS SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEMS PROGRESSION SINCE THEIR 22/00Z RUN...LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN ANY OF THEIR SOLUTIONS OVER THIS TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF LIES ON THE SLOW/DEEP SIDE OF ITS PAST 2.5 DAYS OF RUNS WITH THIS SYSTEMS PROGRESSION/DEPTH. WHEN COMPARING THE GUIDANCE...THE 00Z GFS/00Z CANADIAN ARE NOW THE SLOWEST WHILE THE 21Z SREF MEAN/18Z GFS/18Z GEFS MEAN/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE THE QUICKEST. THE 00Z NAM/00Z UKMET/00Z GEFS MEAN/00Z ECMWF NOW MAKE UP THE QUICKER CONSENSUS. CONSIDERING THE PREFERENCES UPSTREAM...SLOWER/MORE WESTERLY SOLUTIONS SHOULD WORK OUT BETTER HERE. HOWEVER...THERE IS CONTINUITY TO CONSIDER. WILL PREFER THE CURRENT CONSENSUS WHICH IS A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z NAM/00Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF/00Z GEFS MEAN SOLUTIONS HERE...WHICH TAKES ADVANTAGE OF THE BETTER ECMWF CONTINUITY TO BOOT...AND ACCOUNTS FOR THE TRENDS SEEN IN THE NAM/GFS/THE PAST 12-24 HOURS OF CANADIAN AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THIS SOLUTION IS SIX HOURS SLOWER THAN MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Dont you guys love that the gfs/euro are showing a huge storm EVERY run? but we have precip issues ect. with no high But then when we do have a high and the cold is in place and the pattern is perfect, the models in the medium range (and short range) have no phase and are ots and there is mass bridge jumping. i have a love/hate relationship with the models lol FWIW, and whoever cares...DT's first call http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=177892198913821&set=a.177885982247776.32374.177868848916156 seems alittle on the snowy side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 DT's map will make all the weenies happy. With retreating high and no blocking it should. 6-12 inches for NYC and LI. Shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 For the littoral to see significant snow, this would have to travel outside the benchmark, otherwise expect flood watches with a frozen ground by Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Dont you guys love that the gfs/euro are showing a huge storm EVERY run? but we have precip issues ect. with no high But then when we do have a high and the cold is in place and the pattern is perfect, the models in the medium range (and short range) have no phase and are ots and there is mass bridge jumping. i have a love/hate relationship with the models lol FWIW, and whoever cares...DT's first call http://www.facebook....177868848916156 seems alittle on the snowy side ok now hes just trolling us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Dont you guys love that the gfs/euro are showing a huge storm EVERY run? but we have precip issues ect. with no high But then when we do have a high and the cold is in place and the pattern is perfect, the models in the medium range (and short range) have no phase and are ots and there is mass bridge jumping. i have a love/hate relationship with the models lol FWIW, and whoever cares...DT's first call http://www.facebook....177868848916156 seems alittle on the snowy side Considering his comments yesterday, this seems surprising but of course it is only his first stab at it. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 For the littoral to see significant snow, this would have to travel outside the benchmark, otherwise expect flood watches with a frozen ground by Monday. You are making the assumption that the Canadian high pressure area entering the fray will not be in good enough position in time to give snow and that the low will hug the coast. Not quite the best approach at this point in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 You are making the assumption that the Canadian high pressure area entering the fray will not be in good enough position in time to give snow and that the kow will hug the coast. Not quite the best approach at this point in time. The secondary higher pressure is just a function of the northern stream energy moving in behind the system. Remember a few days ago when we were talking about the possibility of overrunning precipitation with the shortwave interacting with the big cold Canadian high which would be situated over Maine? That is totally gone now. Look how far east the high pressure is at 66 hours...it's literally hundreds of miles into the Atlantic. We are going to need the system to cut off and create it's own cold air..which is not a good prospect for anybody within 75 miles of the coast anywhere south of HPN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Oh I agree 100% if the other high pressure area is all that you say it will be. Honestly I would prefer a way offshore result (i.e. even OTS) than rain. GFS depicted that as a possibility on some runs so you never know. The secondary higher pressure is just a function of the northern stream energy moving in behind the system. Remember a few days ago when we were talking about the possibility of overrunning precipitation with the shortwave interacting with the big cold Canadian high which would be situated over Maine? That is totally gone now. Look how far east the high pressure is at 66 hours...it's literally hundreds of miles into the Atlantic. We are going to need the system to cut off and create it's own cold air..which is not a good prospect for anybody within 75 miles of the coast anywhere south of HPN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Actually, SG said that the further away that first high is, the better. Hundreds of miles offshore would keep us from developing a SE wind. But it still might not be enough as we're basically in the valley between two Arctic air masses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 gfs indiv ens members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 These are much more awesome than I had thought they would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Tombo..it's interesting how some of those are actually deceiving on the PSU maps. For example..P002. Looks like rain on PSU..but Raleigh's map show that it's probably a dynamic snow bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Tombo..it's interesting how some of those are actually deceiving on the PSU maps. For example..P002. Looks like rain on PSU..but Raleigh's map show that it's probably a dynamic snow bomb. yea the key to this storm if it takes a track just off the coast is how fast it gets captured and where and when do the dynamics take control. You could see it on the euro tonight at hr 96 i believe with the 850 line how it bowed inward towards the low by phl and south jerz. It will be interesting to see the euro ens mean. I still think this is an interior snow tree plastering, 4 story apartment crusher, widow maker snowstorm for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 yea the key to this storm if it takes a track just off the coast is how fast it gets captured and where and when do the dynamics take control. You could see it on the euro tonight at hr 96 i believe with the 850 line how it bowed inward towards the low by phl and south jerz. It will be interesting to see the euro ens mean. I still think this is an interior snow tree plastering, 4 story apartment crusher, widow maker snowstorm for them. Man...it sure would be nice if the GEFS had any clue here. Some of those solutions would literally plaster everybody for days. Squirrel squashing, car crushing, weenie wet snow bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Man...it sure would be nice if the GEFS had any clue here. Some of those solutions would literally plaster everybody for days. Squirrel squashing, car crushing, weenie wet snow bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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