TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 546 line into Massachusetts at one point. Warm layers all over the place and then the surface 32 crashes and the 850 stay above 0 in places around nyc so there is freezing rain. Another solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 hr 96 sub 984 low about 100 miles east of the del bay...captured at h5 frz line bos to hpn to abe to lewistown.. 850s are north of the frz line in the nyc area...then they cut down the delaware river track over ttn intosouth jerz then cut back through central del Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Such a tiny fine line here for a snowy solution anywhere near the cities. As Snowgoose has said before, the kicker is mis-modeled in the least bit and the low goes back to a coastal hugger, and none of this discussion about highs even matter. But also, the overall flow out ahead of the storm remains easterly, and off the Atlantic. So much needs to go right here that it's hard to really get excited about this threat. Inland is favored much more than the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The cold sector precip absolutely blows...areas that stay all snow don't get that much QPF. You have to be closer to the coast..and the heavy dynamics..to get the better QPF. I am not shocked by this. If there is a way to get screwed, mother nature will find a way to give it to me. I still think there will be a lot of changes by 12z tomorrow when all the shortwaves are in data-collecting areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 hr 102 sub 980 over the bm .1-.25 over phl .25-.5 over nyc 850s offshore frz line lns to abe to hpn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 hr 108 its gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Wow..this solution is actually colder than I thought. The 32 F line doesn't get north of Essex County, NJ. The mid levels are screaming but wow, that's a cold surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 FIM: http://fim.noaa.gov/...+Jan+2010+-+00Z Stands for Flow-following Finite-volume Icosahedral Model. Idk what that means but it sounds fancy An Icosahedron is a polyhedron. In geometry, an icosahedron (Greek: εικοσάεδρον, from eikosi twenty + hedron seat; pronounced /ˌaɪkɵsəˈhiːdrən/ or /aɪˌkɒsəˈhiːdrən/; plural: -drons, -dra /-drə/) is a regular polyhedron with 20 identical equilateral triangular faces, 30 edges and 12 vertices. It is one of the five Platonic solids. from wiki No clue why that term is being used to describe a weather model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 qpf hazleton .5-.75 nyc 1.5 phl 1.25 abe .75-1 mdt .5-.75 balt 1-1.25 dc 1.25-1.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Just another solution for us to consider. People shouldn't be hanging their hat on anything now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Wow..this solution is actually colder than I thought. The 32 F line doesn't get north of Essex County, NJ. The mid levels are screaming but wow, that's a cold surface. Would there be ice involved in this storm on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Wow..this solution is actually colder than I thought. The 32 F line doesn't get north of Essex County, NJ. The mid levels are screaming but wow, that's a cold surface. another ice storm for C/NNJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Such a tiny fine line here for a snowy solution anywhere near the cities. As Snowgoose has said before, the kicker is mis-modeled in the least bit and the low goes back to a coastal hugger, and none of this discussion about highs even matter. But also, the overall flow out ahead of the storm remains easterly, and off the Atlantic. So much needs to go right here that it's hard to really get excited about this threat. Inland is favored much more than the coast. Either that or the progressive flow just kicks the whole thing out to sea. The amt of precip is so thin to the NW of the low, that might be more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 could be a lot of freezing rain for places just north and west of NYC. Verbatim for places like white plains its snow, to rain, to freezing rain to heavy snow. Of course, if the Euro has the surface right and uppers wrong, i.e, colder 850 temps, it would be a cement mixer snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 another ice storm for C/NNJ? If there's a cold NNE flow funneling in off a cold high pressure, it's possible. The cold air is hard enough to scour out in some of the interior valleys there, and it's now snowcovered, making it even harder. It's not inconceivable there's a sleet/freezing rain zone for many Lehigh/NW NJ/Hudson Valley locales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Wow so many different outcomes with all the models this one is going to be hard to forcast I guess tommorow night we may get a better idea on this storm.... maybe..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 People need to just let things play out and not take every detail verbatim. Most people in the NYC metro area should at least keep their attention focused when the EURO progs a 985mb low over eastern tip of LI... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 An Icosahedron is a polyhedron. In geometry, an icosahedron (Greek: εικοσάεδρον, from eikosi twenty + hedron seat; pronounced /ˌaɪkɵsəˈhiːdrən/ or /aɪˌkɒsəˈhiːdrən/; plural: -drons, -dra /-drə/) is a regular polyhedron with 20 identical equilateral triangular faces, 30 edges and 12 vertices. It is one of the five Platonic solids. from wiki No clue why that term is being used to describe a weather model. So it was a big deal back in the day when they upgraded from the triangle model to the square model? thanks for the info Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 qpf hazleton .5-.75 nyc 1.5 phl 1.25 abe .75-1 mdt .5-.75 balt 1-1.25 dc 1.25-1.5 thanks tom. Sounds like the 00z ukmet and its a bit west of its 12z run . I like a gfs/ecm compromise (gefs/ggem ensmbls) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 96 hr ECM 983 mbs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Either that or the progressive flow just kicks the whole thing out to sea. The amt of precip is so thin to the NW of the low, that might be more likely. Arrgghh, I'm just not sure about that. Remember with this last system 2 days ago, models shifted the storm east to even give us little precip 2 days out or so, only to verify closer to the coast to the point where the R/S line practically made it just about to here. In weak NAO situations and strong Ninas, storms just want to amplify as much as physically possible east of the Mississippi. The northern stream is often more assertive than the models see, and it forces a cutter or unfavorable track here. We literally have to just about win the lottery to get a major snow event out of this storm, given the high roaring east flow into our area for a day, and then the possibility of a coast hugger on top of it. My money's on mostly rain, but I really hope that's wrong. When the blocking regime returns hopefully next month, we'll be in a much more favorable setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I don't think people should be too concerned with temperatures that is one subject that will work itself out, models will have to figure out several variables such as influence of the HP, wind direction, dynamic cooling with a system of this nature. The 0z EURO is stronger and a bit further east with the placement, yet 12z showed mainly snow. These things will work themselves out, but the potential is there, maybe the GFS and EURO tomorrow will give us a better idea on temps as we get closer, they seem to be leading the pack and trending towards a solution. Honestly in this winter, a lot seems to work out favorably, if nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 qpf hazleton .5-.75 nyc 1.5 phl 1.25 abe .75-1 mdt .5-.75 balt 1-1.25 dc 1.25-1.5 Thanks for your pbp tom. How viable do you think this run of the euro is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
njblizzard Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 what happend to the new HP that GFS was showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I do not think the ECM was further east tonight then its 12 Z counterpart... The 00z was more amped up....so if anything that would argue that it is more NW tonight then it was at 12 Z.... At 96 hrs there is a 983 mb low pressure That is 50 miles or less off the coast.... Thats pretty much a coastal hugger and thats why it increased QPF towards the west tonight.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Arrgghh, I'm just not sure about that. Remember with this last system 2 days ago, models shifted the storm east to even give us little precip 2 days out or so, only to verify closer to the coast to the point where the R/S line practically made it just about to here. In weak NAO situations and strong Ninas, storms just want to amplify as much as physically possible east of the Mississippi. The northern stream is often more assertive than the models see, and it forces a cutter or unfavorable track here. We literally have to just about win the lottery to get a major snow event out of this storm, given the high roaring east flow into our area for a day, and then the possibility of a coast hugger on top of it. My money's on mostly rain, but I really hope that's wrong. When the blocking regime returns hopefully next month, we'll be in a much more favorable setup. Yeah, there's no reason to have any angst over this whether it pans out or not-- next month looks like it might be one for the ages and at this point I dont care if the AO is -10 MILLION next month, I hope it gets to the lowest point it can physically be at-- and it starts in just a little over a week But I see this as more of a mix or back and forth thing rather than all rain. Im liking the Xmas 2002 analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Thanks for your pbp tom. How viable do you think this run of the euro is? i think it has merit. I still think its going to be like pulling teeth to get snow into the cities to the tune of more than a couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Just another solution for us to consider. People shouldn't be hanging their hat on anything now. I think the inter and intra model changes have been relatively small compared to some of the huge hit or miss neck snapping runs we often get in the mid-range (4-6 day) period. And I agree, p-type and QPF are impossible to even roughly sort out when there are so many more model runs before the actual thing. But I think the idea of a storm coming up the coast, just on or offshore, and flooding the coastal plain with warmth at some level(s) is clearly one of the major worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 i think it has merit. I still think its going to be like pulling teeth to get snow into the cities to the tune of more than a couple inches. Looks like a Hatteras to 50 mile east of ACY to BM track we were talking about earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 euro qpf lines .5 somerset, PA to just west of harrisburg, PA, to Hazleton, PA, to Schenecdity, NY into central VT .75 Hagerstown, MD to Reading, PA, to Mt Pocono, to just south of Albany, NY into SW VT 1" Martins burg, VA along PA/MD border to Coatsville, PA, to Doylestown, PA along Delaware river border of NW NJ and PA to Poughkeepsie, NY to VT, MA border 1.25 Wilmington, De thru Philly, to Trenton to morsitown, NJ to Newburgh, NY to CT/MA border 1.5 middletown, DE, to Cherry Hill NJ, to NYC to New Haven, CT, (all of LI) 1.75 millvile, NJ to Monmouth Beach NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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