Sundog Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I think it's time we split EPA from the coastal areas. Clearly our interests are not compatible for this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Perfect. Now slowly bring it back to the coast over the next two days, GFS. You better hope the GFS finds a way to keep us snow, because if that comes closer to the coast most of us would be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Much warmer at the surface this run...near or above freezing for a while Hmm.. my worry is that if it didn't go off shore, there could definitely be precip.-type issues. Comments on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I can sum this up real quick. Typical GFS SE bias but it did shift toward the Euro. It will not get this right in one run. It is a major shift though toward the Euro in one run. No more a major shift to the ukmet - euro is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Very happy with where the gfs is at this point (for n/w of 95, that is)...boxing day storm was very suppressed on gfs four days out...it caught on at 72-78 and then the gfs never looked back. Give it time...this is better than having a mecs right now given historical gfs trends and se bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I think it's time we split EPA from the coastal areas. Clearly our interests are not compatible for this storm I think if the next couple model cycles come back to a warm solution for the coast we will need to do something like "I-95 & east" and "West of I-95". IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 You better hope the GFS finds a way to keep us snow, because if that comes closer to the coast most of us would be rain. different look now on GFS, arctic high has retreated so far it is not even in the picture. Don't really like this new look with lack of cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Just for lulz, here are the totals from the 12Z OP GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
listarz Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Right, it does us no good for the GFS to shift back west if there is no blocking to keep the cold air in place. Watch the Highs to the north. Therein lies the key to it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I did notice a high trying to trying nose in from over the great lakes at 108 hrs. That could save the coastal plain if it gets there in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I think if the next couple model cycles come back to a warm solution for the coast we will need to do something like "I-95 & east" and "West of I-95". IMO you might want to make that west of I-81 not 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I think if the next couple model cycles come back to a warm solution for the coast we will need to do something like "I-95 & east" and "West of I-95". IMO I think the New York & Philadelphia NWS counties should work fine... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Without -NAO west block is LI cooked for a 12/26 redux? If we had block it definately would have been another 18-24" storm easily. Now probably 8-12 with sleet & freezing rain mix for a few hours at peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 different look now on GFS, arctic high has retreated so far it is not even in the picture. Don't really like this new look with lack of cold air The one above the great lakes seemed to have moved east a decent amount since last night. Maybe I'm just remembering wrong, but I thought it was over N Dakota. There were way too many things to read last night and very few images posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I did notice a high trying to trying nose in from over the great lakes at 108 hrs. That could save the coastal plain if it gets there in time. A banana high would be quite ideal for all of us to remain cold enough, we'll see if that can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 First of all I never trust the ukmet...I think the euro is too extreme but close to the final solution. All signs point to primarily a rainstorm for I-95 corridor No more a major shift to the ukmet - euro is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 You better hope the GFS finds a way to keep us snow, because if that comes closer to the coast most of us would be rain. Yup, even with it that far off shore.....the rain/snow line was basically right along the coast....Again, the HP is sliding offshore which is allowing a warmer wind situation. ATM, to me, it looks as though this is not the coasts storm any way you slice it. Unless somehow we can get HP in a more favorable position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 You better hope the GFS finds a way to keep us snow, because if that comes closer to the coast most of us would be rain. despite the shifting of the models, that is one thing that has become pretty obvious...either we get light/moderate snow and the storm is well east...or we get rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmizer Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Much warmer at the surface this run...near or above freezing for a while Yes. The confluence responsible for supporting the cold high slides N and E as the northern stream shortwave and longwave trough in SErn Canada gets shunted further eastward this run. This is problematic even if the low tracks a bit further eastward (which I think is flat out wrong). The inherent problem is, either way, we lose the damming too quickly, and the coast is definitely dealing with big time mixing and even rain...not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I think the New York & Philadelphia NWS counties should work fine... If it rains on the jersey shore and NYC, then no, that wouldn't really make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 A banana high would be quite ideal for all of us to remain cold enough, we'll see if that can happen. i tried to ask this in a diff thread..........what are the ideal positions of the highs in the banana setup?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Could I please get a met to explain why even with a good low track for the mid atl, it could still be rain? Phineas is making my head bleed in the dc thread by saying with this set up dc would be snow, even though I think that is really wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 UKMET looks like it tracks the same as the 0z Euro but weaker. hour 96 LP in NC and by 120 it's on top of Nova Scotia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmizer Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Could I please get a met to explain why even with a good low track for the mid atl, it could still be rain? Phineas is making my head bleed in the dc thread by saying with this set up dc would be snow, even though I think that is really wrong. The confluence responsible for supporting the cold high slides N and E as the northern stream shortwave and longwave trough in SErn Canada gets shunted further eastward this run. No cold air damming support, much less support for snow- even with an "ideal" track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Could I please get a met to explain why even with a good low track for the mid atl, it could still be rain? Phineas is making my head bleed in the dc thread by saying with this set up dc would be snow, even though I think that is really wrong. East winds out ahead of the storm for 12 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 What about dynamics? If the low is strong enough, it could still snow if it can create its own cold air source, I've seen it happen countless times even with a lack of cold air. I don't think this is 100% rain by any means yet. Also, we have had snowstorms without blocking, just because we don't have blocking doesn't mean we can't get a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 i tried to ask this in a diff thread..........what are the ideal positions of the highs in the banana setup?? Ideal Banana High What we're up against Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 East winds out ahead of the storm for 12 hours Thanks guys...someone just mentioned that the storm moving closer to the coast, the mechanisms involved in that, would cause temps to crash? Is there any credence in the "storm creates it's own cold air" theory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 DC does have a better chance of snow than NYC or Boston with this type of setup Could I please get a met to explain why even with a good low track for the mid atl, it could still be rain? Phineas is making my head bleed in the dc thread by saying with this set up dc would be snow, even though I think that is really wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Thanks guys...someone just mentioned that the storm moving closer to the coast, the mechanisms involved in that, would cause temps to crash? Is there any credence in the "storm creates it's own cold air" theory? It can happen if the storm is strong enough and follows the perfect track. Upper levels have to be cold , though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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