Zir0b Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 must be some coastal huggers in the mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The highs on te gefs so I'm happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 must be some coastal huggers in the mean If only this could just verify, a lot of people would be happy and maybe less bitching would occur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The highs on te gefs so I'm happy. Yeah, very similar kind of sneaky HP built in for the boxing day event and caused that crazy pressure gradient. Not comparing this event to that, but the HP's this year have been a plenty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ej257 snow lover Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 If only this could just verify, a lot of people would be happy and maybe less bitching would occur i was teased with 2 + qpf..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Nogaps is way wide right, shocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 gfs ens mean has a sub 996 low about 75 miles or so east of cape may...goes from orf to that spot to just south of ack. Basically the ens mean is west of the op Still a very nice track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Nogaps is way wide right, shocker. I don't know why people even look at NOGAPS for winter storms. It's a tropical model, for crying out loud. It is of no use in these situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 So instead of snow-rain-snow or snow-rain we're talking rain-snow like Xmas 2002. That was an awesome storm most would love a repeat of-- 8 inches of snow with the wrap around. Actually, Christmas 2002 was snow-rain-snow around these parts. I think a half inch or so on the front end, then there was an ocassional flake or two mixed with the rain through the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The GFS is trending towards the west. The ECMWF is trending to the east. The GEM who knows that much QPF is insane and boy is it warm. The NAM what a joke. I can go on and on, but with some much model inconsistency the forecast is anyone quess. Just look at the NYC NWS office forecast they do not know either, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 If only this could just verify, a lot of people would be happy and maybe less bitching would occur The ensemble mean is actually close to the ideal solution for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Still a very nice track. Alex, For us guys in SW Nass Cnty...is this all a tick better? WXoutlooks still has his 2 stars based on a Monday start and that was as of 1150PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Nogaps is way wide right, shocker. In case you did not know that is where you want the model to be with all the other models now going west. If the nogaps kept going west you would end up with a final result of a storm tracking into C PA... Notice how now all the models .... NAM/GGEM/GFS/GFES Means/UKMET are all trending west or some have always been more west.... GGEM is right off the DE coast...they are also all trending slower..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 FWIW the gfs maintains the proverbial icebox in these parts through the rest of the run... Queue Don Mclean - February made me shiver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 In case you did not know that is where you want the model to be with all the other models now going west. If the nogaps kept going west you would end up with a final result of a storm tracking into C PA... Notice how now all the models .... NAM/GGEM/GFS/GFES Means are all trending west or some have always been more west.... GGEM is right off the DE coast...they are also all trending slower..... maybe they are trending slower because HECS dont occur on weekdays Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 If the models trend any slower the next shortwave will drop in that high and cold air would be advected into the area and a major snow would occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
njblizzard Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I really feel it for local tv/radio mets here. i mean what they suppose to say. ppl dont want to hear about model being garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 In case you did not know that is where you want the model to be with all the other models now going west. If the nogaps kept going west you would end up with a final result of a storm tracking into C PA... Notice how now all the models .... NAM/GGEM/GFS/GFES Means are all trending west or some have always been more west.... GGEM is right off the DE coast...they are also all trending slower..... Hey, are you some navy guy or something....defending the navy model...just wondering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 FWIW the gfs maintains the proverbial icebox in these parts through the rest of the run... Queue Don Mclean - February made me shiver. "with every paper I delivered, bad news on the doorstep, i couldnt take one more step" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 If the models trend any slower the next shortwave will drop in that high and cold air would be advected into the area and a major snow would occur. Its almost there, no joke. First northern energy gets through. Second one almost does too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GFS sounding centered over NYC at 102 hrs. Look good. Entire column below freezing Hi...First post here. Can you explain how the entire column is below freezing when the temp line goes above 0c? Sorry, just learning to use twisterdata tonight and am a little confused over how to read it. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 FWIW the gfs maintains the proverbial icebox in these parts through the rest of the run... Queue Don Mclean - February made me shiver. February might be our best snow month since........ last February lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 DT first guess: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Well, that's nice to see from DT especially considering he was going for rain along the coast a few days ago. 6-12" would make a lot of people happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 maybe they are trending slower because HECS dont occur on weekdays Ji, February 9-10, 2010 was a HECS.... Weekday. Probably the only one in a long time, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Here are those fancy GGEM maps. Crippling interior NY and NE snow storm. Obviously a big change from its previous runs http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Ji, February 9-10, 2010 was a HECS.... Weekday. Probably the only one in a long time, though. February 25-26 was during the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 February 25-26 was during the week. Wasnt it Friday into Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Hi...First post here. Can you explain how the entire column is below freezing when the temp line goes above 0c? Sorry, just learning to use twisterdata tonight and am a little confused over how to read it. Thanks! The zero Celcius line goes up to the right at an angle, its the way the plot is displayed. NIU doesn't allow a 102 GFS forecast sounding, but Hour 96, an emagram, the freezing line is vertical... ETA- exact same forecast time and location sounding, conventional forecast skew-T. skew-Ts are best (for me) for thunderstorm guess-casting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimmosk Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Hi...First post here. Can you explain how the entire column is below freezing when the temp line goes above 0c? Sorry, just learning to use twisterdata tonight and am a little confused over how to read it. Thanks! The 0°C line doesn't go straight up -- none of them do. They go diagonally up to the right (see the other 0°C written along the right edge? The line connecting them is the 0° line!) They should really alter the tick marks along the bottom of those graphs so they're diagonal. It'd clear up 90% of people's confusion... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.