Thunder Road Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 shouldn't someone be posting the GGEM's latest inland cutter by now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 basically it looks like we want this event later now...it went from monday to tues/wed...now on the gfs its late wed into thurs lol. The later right now seems the best if you want snow,. Yeah, for I-95 south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawxworld Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 yesterday or this morning you said you didn't have a feel for this storm no blocking sliding high....and now because the GFS shows your solution, you feel the need to indorse it because IMBY it shows a snowstorm. and the to number of posts I had many on the other site so what does it matter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GGEM just a little bit different tonight, LOL. Big shift east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 thats to far west, and not strong at all. A 1025 mb High is decently strong. Compare to the 0Z GFS. They are roughly in the same spot. The High Pressure on the Ukie is a bit west, allowing the storm to come slghtly west of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Believe me, the posts are recorded...I read them. It's literally engraved in my brain matter that you guys have been getting shafted the past several storms. I know how it feels, I went through it too, but jesus f***. When is it time to stop complaining and just wait patiently? The snow gods will deliver eventually, they always do. I am a very patient person. I know when the snows coming. What I hate is when the thread turns to literally hate e-mail because of somebody upset about how a model run solution looks. Usually it is a younger person with no college experience. My god, it is only a computer model. These model solutions changes after every 6 to 12 hour period. Put very simplistically, would you want to have heart surgery based on any model solution? I sure the hell would not. Weather computers generate millions of bytes of data to come up with a guidance solution that tomorrow could change 180 degrees-- which we observed at Christmas. Many posters on this board are too young to remember what it was like not having the luxury of the internet to understand weather modeling. I think that this board should consider posting the age of the member under their board name to create some idea of the experience of the member. That would help with responses and questions to the member in question so as to not become spiteful. Thanks earthlight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 so does it look as if this storm is being pushed back? more like wednesday afternoon into very early thursday morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GEM is warm but a big about face from its super miller A inland runner 4 inch deluge solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 So discounting that the ggem is warm, it no longer shows an inland cutter, guess that is a significant change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 yesterday or this morning you said you didn't have a feel for this storm no blocking sliding high....and now because the GFS shows your solution, you feel the need to indorse it because IMBY it shows a snowstorm. and the to number of posts I had many on the other site so what does it matter? Wait, you were serious? I never said anything about the GFS being right. I jokingly endorsed it because it gave me snow. What I spoke about yesterday hasn't changed. There's no blocking...there's a high sliding offshore...there's not much support for snow along the coast. Man..it's amazing how a few shafts makes a whole bunch of people irritable and extremely sensitive. Just relax. It's going to snow, it's a fact of life. Sheesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 gfs ens mean has a sub 996 low about 75 miles or so east of cape may...goes from orf to that spot to just south of ack. Basically the ens mean is west of the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GFS sounding centered over NYC at 102 hrs. Look good. Entire column below freezing Erh...all of the lines get near +10C at around 700mb....unless I'm reading this wrong. Got a website for these graphs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 So discounting that the ggem is warm, it no longer shows an inland cutter, guess that is a significant change. The GGEM had a 1028 mb High in the same location as the GFS, yet it's a torch... interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GEM is warm but a big about face from its super miller A inland runner 4 inch deluge solution. That model is terrible Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Erh...all of the lines get near +10C at around 700mb....unless I'm reading this wrong. Got a website for these graphs? your reading it wrong. Thats a cold snowy sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Based on 850 temps alone (probably not smart but whatever) the GFS ensemble mean is a MECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Erh...all of the lines get near +10C at around 700mb....unless I'm reading this wrong. Got a website for these graphs? The lines go to the right, not the left. They are closer to -10 C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Ggem is notorious for being to warm guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 That model is terrible Rossi Yes it is. Looks like the canadians put all their money into the RGEM which seems very very good this year 36 hours in and left the ggem out to dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Erh...all of the lines get near +10C at around 700mb....unless I'm reading this wrong. Got a website for these graphs? you are reading it wrong...they are approaching -10c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Erh...all of the lines get near +10C at around 700mb....unless I'm reading this wrong. Got a website for these graphs? its in the upper right corner... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathernut85 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I am a very patient person. I know when the snows coming. What I hate is when the thread turns to literally hate e-mail because of somebody upset about how a model run solution looks. Usually it is a younger person with no college experience. My god, it is only a computer model. These model solutions changes after every 6 to 12 hour period. Put very simplistically, would you want to have heart surgery based on any model solution? I sure the hell would not. Weather computers generate millions of bytes of data to come up with a guidance solution that tomorrow could change 180 degrees-- which we observed at Christmas. Many posters on this board are too young to remember what it was like not having the luxury of the internet to understand weather modeling. I think that this board should consider posting the age of the member under their board name to create some idea of the experience of the member. That would help with responses and questions to the member in question so as to not become spiteful. Thanks earthlight This is off topic, but age =/= experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 00z GEFS means are very amped up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 gfs ens mean has a sub 996 low about 75 miles or so east of cape may...goes from orf to that spot to just south of ack. Basically the ens mean is west of the op Yep... Looks a little west of the op, and quicker... qpf looks a little more promising to those on the western edges of our forum area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 gfs ens mean has a sub 996 low about 75 miles or so east of cape may...goes from orf to that spot to just south of ack. Basically the ens mean is west of the op looking at the spread a lot of members look NW of OP at 96 hrs, most centered on the coast of NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 00z GEFS means are very amped up yeah, 540 line is on the coast and 850 is right on top of it, thats cuttting it close so clearly a lot of members closer than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 WOW- the GGEM must be over 2"qpf for most of us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 at 102 there are a lot of sub 990 members centered around the eastern tip of LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 ISP, the surface starts warm at the 6 hours of highest QPF, but 36ºF can be snow if everything else is right, and the sounding looks like it just might support snow even in Central Long Island at 96 hours. And it only gets cooler from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yeah...the GFS ensembles are about 100 miles further southwest and west as well...there's a good inland spread too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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