RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 huh... what "larger event" beyond the forecast period do they mean? The Manitoba Mauler? the coastal...... smaller or first event is overunning precip on tue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 HMMMMMMM.... Inland: NAM/GGEM Scraper or BM: GFS/GEFS/Euro/Euro ens Tough one I thinik you really mischaracterize the Nam as being 'inland'. It may be inland at 84h but its clearly heading toward the coast well south of us... I would suggest that on its current track it reaches the coast near somewhere off Nothern Va or delaware... From there, its path is a guess. .But certainly, to characterize it as being inland, especially for areas around NY and New England is not correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 mt holly looks to be on it....i like them, good office. TUESDAY...AM EXPECTING A PERIOD OF SNOW IN WHAT ATTM LOOKS LIKE A PRELIMINARY EVENT PRIOR TO THE LARGER EVENT "POTENTIAL" BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS COULD BE ADVISORY SNOWFALL... ALBEIT LOW PROB POTENTIAL ATTM . 12Z/22 GFS HAS ABOUT .05 TO .15 WATER EQUIVALENT AND BOTH 09Z AND 15Z/22 SREF HAVE PROBS OF 70-90 PCT FOR .01 OR GREATER IN A 6 HR PERIOD AND WITH .1 TO .25 LIQUID WATER EQUIV THOUGH WITH 0.2 INCH SPREAD. THE 00Z/22 NAEFS HAD .2 OVER ALL THE AREA WITH SLIGHT QPF SPREAD... AND A PROB OF AT LEAST .2 IN THE 50 TO 65 PCT RANGE. POPS WERE CONSERVATIVELY RAISED COMPROMISING 09Z SREF WITH THE PRIOR 09Z/22 KPHI FCST. MIXED PCPN IS SHOWING UP IN THE FCST OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA AS PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND SFC TEMPS WARM. THE 12Z ECMWF WAS MUCH WARMER THAN GFS GUIDANCE. TOOK A BLENDED COMPROMISE AS I THINK THE ECMWF IS NOT SHOWING ENOUGH PCPN FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A COASTAL LOW...A NOR/EASTER... AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. JUST HOW MUCH THIS STORM AFFECTS US IS LESS THAN CERTAIN AT THIS EARLY TIME...BUT IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT AT LEAST SOUTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL PARTS OF THE AREA WILL HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION EFFECTS...AND PERHAPS SOME WIND AND COASTAL ISSUES AS WELL. HOWEVER...THERE HAVE BEEN CHANGES IN THE STRENGTH AND LOCATIONS OF PRESSURE FEATURES...THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE AND IMPLIED PRECIPITATION...AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS WITH THE 12Z RUN. THE GFS HAS DE-AMPLIFIED THE UPPER TROUGH AND IS MORE ZONAL, LEADING TO TRACK A BIT LESS CLOSE TO OUR AREA, AND LESS OF AN INTRUSION OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MOVED TOWARD...BUT NOT QUITE TO...THE GFS SOLUTION. THE NET RESULT IS THAT, WITH LOWISH CONFIDENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS, HIGH CHANCE PROBABILITIES WILL BE KEPT EVERYWHERE. REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE, A CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE CONTINUED NORTHWEST...A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL BE USED FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES...AND MOSTLY A CHANCE OF RAIN WAS USED FOR THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THEN...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE RETAINED FOR THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM IN A NORTHWEST FLOW / COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME...THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS CENTRAL AND NORTH THURSDAY MORNING...AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT RESPECTIVELY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS ADDED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE LOW SHOWN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON THE GFS...WITH A LESS AGGRESSIVE DEPICTION ON THE ECMWF. UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES TO TRY TO REFORM OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. IT IS WONDERED IF HPC TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WERE ACCEPTED FOR NOW. Nice summary.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Who in the blue hell is Alex Sosnowksi? He's gotta be trolling with a last name like that. Good god. It's a word for word reposting of one of yesterday mornings accuwx news/blog entries. A no-no indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 NO, just NO! You didnt get backside accumulating snow from that storm? I thought inland areas did better because they had more snow at the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 You didnt get backside accumulating snow from that storm? I thought inland areas did better because they had more snow at the start. I got crushed in that one. It was rain/sleet briefly on Christmas morning and went over to heavy snow shortly thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Nice summary.... I must agree...excellent explanation from that office Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 You didnt get backside accumulating snow from that storm? I thought inland areas did better because they had more snow at the start. As I recall we had a little to start and then it went to rain, I was in North Jersey Xmas day through 12/26 (they got around 8 inches where I was), but not much where I am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I must agree...excellent explanation from that office Our guys at Upton are the finest forecasters on the East Coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Our guys at Upton are the finest forecasters on the East Coast They're excellent also, I usually read both when we have potential for something.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 They're excellent also, I usually read both when we have potential for something.... Some of you young bucks like John, should get in that office... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 cant really make the gfs out yet...it deff looks to be a little slower. Doesn't look like its as amped, kind of looks like its hanging the enrgy in the sw more this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Our guys at Upton are the finest forecasters on the East Coast I feel the same way about our guys at Mount Holly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 through hr 72 kind of loos like the nam, its trying to cut off the h5 energy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 through hr 72 kind of loos like the nam, its trying to cut off the h5 energy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 deff diggin deeper... cutting it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 through hr 72 kind of loos like the nam, its trying to cut off the h5 energy... Perhaps this will answer the questions about what the NAM would have done next... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 hr 81 has a sub 1000 low bout 50 miles south of atl... h5 is cutoff and its basically captured the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 hr 87 sub 1000 low over cape fear its starting to unravel a little bit but still closed off at h5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Hr 84 GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Energy forms a really tight vort over the south, really wound up but i looks like its moving offshore rather quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 If it's like the NAM, and goes inland, after the past few runs having it basically OTS, it will come to show us all how much uncertainty lies behind this storm. People should not draw up any conclusions tonight, and really should wait for consistency before doing so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 A 1020 high west of Albany? That's a new twist..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Not sure how far north this will get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 hr 90.. interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 hr 96 sub 992 captured again about 75-100 miles east of the mouth of the ches....mod snow dc to phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yeah a scraper again Basically the vorts moves ots off the coast of VA...its really intense but consolidated so the QPF shield is small Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 hr 102 sub 988 about 200 miles east of toms river...looks really good for the cities and outside burbs...850s and 925 temps and surface are fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yeah a scraper again Basically the vorts moves ots off the coast of VA...its really intense but consolidated so the QPF shield is small A scraper with mod. snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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